Floor Talk June 5
From the "Things are not so bad" department, the agriculture side of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index performed the best in May.
--The S&P GSCI Agriculture lost 61 basis points in May, bringing the YTD total return down to -4.4% and making it the best performer in 2013.
--The S&P GSCI Livestock was slightly down again in May, off 65 basis points, which added to its negative performance for the year, now off 8.1%.
At the close:
The July futures corn contract settled 1 cent higher at $6.60. New-crop Dec. futures finished 11 cents lower at $5.42. The July soybean futures contract finished 3 cents higher at $15.32, new-crop Nov. soybeans ended 16 cents lower at $13.00. July wheat futures finished 7 cents lower at $7.01 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $3.40per short ton higher at $455.90. The July soyoil futures settled $0.29 lower at $48.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.66per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 210points lower.
Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says, "The market saw a 'short' squeeze potential in the July contract, not getting the expected weakness ahead of the UBS and Goldman roll, shorts getting nervous. Crushers are paying up for the cash beans. We are still looking at a couple million ton shortfall in meal production for the second half of the year vs. last year.
Solid ethanol demand (biggest weekly grind since June 2012) is supportive to old crop corn," he says.
The U.S. will produce less winter wheat than first thought, Informa estimates. The private analyst firm, updated its forecasts Wednesday. Brazil will produce more corn, the firm's report shows.
At mid-session, the July futures corn contract is 1 cent higher at $6.61. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 8 cents lower at $5.45. The July soybean futures contract is trading 14 cents higher at $15.43, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 11 cents lower at $13.05. July wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $7.04 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $7.60per short ton higher at $460.10. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.10 lower at $48.49.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.79 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 149 points lower.
Soybeans trade up double-digits, while corn and wheat sink lower.
The EIA reports Wednesday that the U.S. ethanol production hit the highest weekly level since June 2012. Last week, 885,000 barrels/day were produced vs. 863,000 the previous wek.
In early trading, the the July futures corn contract is 1 cent higher at $6.61. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 5 cents lower at $5.47. The July soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents higher at $15.36, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 11 cents lower at $13.05. July wheat futures are trading 1 cent lower at $7.07 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $4.20per short ton higher at $456.70. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.05 higher at $48.64.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.62 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points lower.
At the open:
The July futures corn contract opened 4 cents higher at $6.61. New-crop Dec. futures opened 4 cents lower. The July soybean futures contract opened 2 cents higher, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 3 cents lower.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points higher.
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 1-2 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 4-6 cents lower and soybeans are seen 7-9 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.32 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower, ahead of Fed beige book release.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
Re: Floor Talk June 5
Sorry to hear I cannot submit my picture! Will see if I can dig one up from Iowa.
Lots of pessimism going around, I am still an optimist and think we have a big crop coming. But it has gotten a little smaller. My brother asked my opinion, told him I would load the feedlot up, I think the corn will be worth more on the hoof!
Thanks for keeping us informed!
FWIW the rainy season started on Kyushu and the forecast is sun all week.
Re: Floor Talk June 5
This is a corn field from very high ground in Trempeleau Co Wisconsin... We drove about 50 miles north from La Crosse area (southwest WI) up to around Osseo, WI... The tallest corn i could see was maybe 4 inches... lots of ponding in fields, some fields (low) will not get planted this year... some fields have not been planted and some fields you can see were farmer Joe tried to get the tractor in and thought better of it... Noticed some CRP lands that had been sprayed but had yet to be tilled/planted... Also noticed a lot of logging activity (clear cut!)... I wouldn't expect a bumper corn crop out of WIsconsin, especially with the 7 day forecast looking cold and wet...yesterday the high temp here was 58F (avg is 77f) and we had another inch or so of rain...
Re: Floor Talk June 5
"Corn futures are currently trading mixed, with old crop July higher, but new crop months being pressured by forecasts for somewhat drier weather that will permit late planting to progress. The weekly EIA ethanol production report was positive to old crop demand, showing average daily production of 882,000 bpd. That is the heaviest corn use since June 2012. Ethanol imports were zero for last week. Ethanol stocks did rise with the jump in production, to 16.4 million barrels. While there is a USDA supply/demand report next Wednesday, trade focus is already shifting to the June 28 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. June 1 corn stocks have been above the average trade guess in 4 of the last 8 years, so it is high risk for both bulls and bears. On another front, the EU Commission raised projected corn production to 66.2 MMT, which would be up 7.9 MMT from last year." latest Brugler report
Water has been dripping off my roof all morning. Cloudy and cool, the air conditiner has only ran about three days this year so far. The heating side has been doing the lions share of the work.
My corn is not nice and green, kind of needs some warm sunshine. It has been growing at about half of capacity.
The other "dirty little secret" about the corn side is some of the fields are getting "fuzzy", can't get sprayed because of the rain makes grain thing. Weeds of any size trigger a protective response in corn = a few less bushels. Kind of bonus points in excess production elimination.
My beans need planted or with the exception of 5 acres replanted.