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Veteran Contributor
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Registered: ‎09-09-2014
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Floor Talk June 8

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.77 3/4. December futures ended 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.98. July soybean futures settled 5¢ lower at $9.69.  November soybean futures closed 5¢ lower at $9.89. July wheat futures finished 6 3/4¢ lower at $5.20. July soy meal futures settled $0.60 per short ton lower at $357.80. July soy oil futures closed 0.08 lower at 30.52¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.31 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 52 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.75. December futures 1/4¢ higher at $3.96. July soybean futures are 6 3/4¢ lower at $9.67.  November soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ lower at $9.88. July wheat futures are 13¢ lower at $5.13. July soy meal futures are $0.60 per short ton lower at $357.80. July soy oil futures are 0.23 lower at 30.37¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.43 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.

 

Mike

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At the open:

In early trading, the July corn futures are steady at $3.76. December futures 1/4¢ higher at $3.97. July soybean futures are 2¢ lower at $9.72.  November soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $9.92. July wheat futures are 5¢ higher at $5.31. July soy meal futures are $1.70 per short ton higher at $360.10. July soy oil futures are 0.25 lower at 30.35¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.08 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 46 points lower.

 

Mike

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Soybean futures were lower overnight after the USDA said export sales plunged 40% week-to-week. Beans lost 6 cents, corn was down 2 cents and wheat lost 6 cents overnight. China was again absent -- other than a cancellation of a previously purchased cargo -- from the export sales report. Corn sales also declined on a weekly basis. In weather news, it's going to be a stormy weekend in central Nebraska, and thunderstorms are also likely in eastern Iowa, the National Weather Service said. Get all the details in today's 3 Big Things

 

West Texas Intermediate = down 0.3%.

Brent Crude = down 0.6%

Dollar = up 0.3%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock mixed pre-market.

World Markets = Global stocks lower overnight.

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,221
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Floor Talk June 8

One of those times when export sales of beans are 40% down from a week ago and also 40% above historic levels this time of year.
Notice which direction USDA decides to take.
Stop defending those political hacks.
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,221
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 8

Mike China was not again absent. They bought last week.
Veteran Advisor
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Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Floor Talk June 8

Yes, everyone who disagrees with us is a crook or liar or political hack or out to do-us-in or otherwise foul and evil.  Which country that does a better job of agriculture management are you going to emigrate to?

 

In other words, besides blaming someone, is there anything you can share with us that will make us better marketers?  Or are we all condemned to just rail at our outrageous fortune and roll over and give up?

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,126
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 8

Just to add more fuel to "hate the gov" movement, it would be wise to remember that

last year's crop condition scores terribly understated the crop. For lot's of good reasons,

but in reality, the poor scores were pretty misleading in terms of yield potential.

 

So, just remember, this year the condition scores will be higher than yield

potential the whole season, and very slow to decline, so that they err on the side

of caution and over-correct for last year's failure, and thus on AVERAGE ARE PERFECT!

:-)

 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 364
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 8

Lol 😂, just be honest marketers. I know they’re rare so are honest lawyers and honest politicians, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. It’s ok to do the right thing once in a while even if it hits back at the check book.
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,221
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Floor Talk June 8

Give it a break Jim,   It is not usda's job to interfere with the public marketplace...... They don't even have regulatory authority over commodity markets.  And are not supposed to be pushing markets on a monthly basis.

Especially by hand picking selected data or selected spins on that data..... My example ........ If opinion is going to make up a portion of usda's reports it should at least be an attempt to express all statistical opinions and comparisons.  As Mike said the usda comments came out first.... they were not explaining why the market was moving.... because it had not moved yet...... but it obviously was intended to present a viewpoint that would move the market..... and it did.

 

 

They are supposed to supply congress with some projections for budgeting purposes...... beyond that they are on an ego trip fed my media frenzy's.

 

Maybe the answer to your question is other countries don't publicly attempt to manipulate their markets.

Other than China and Russia.  And only China does it more publicly than USDA does.

 

just my opinion and they keep giving us examples ....

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,292
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Floor Talk June 8

Well, SW, I will not give it a break any more than you do.

 

I find it very hard to resist saying that it is a disservice to the farmer-marketer that most of what we see for farmer commentary on this forum is negative.  Why someone else is to blame for our misfortune because we can't market.

 

Very little commentary on how to use the tools available, such as USDA reports or any other information, to do a better job of marketing.

 

I guess that means that the internet ink will continue to be spilled here.  I don't feel like the Dutch boy with his finger in the dike, but I probably do look like Don Quixote tilting at windmills.

 

Go ahead, tell me who's to blame this week.

 

I'll fire this last shot of this message.  If my marketing is at fault and my family suffers I know exactly who to blame.  Me.

 

 

Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 8

We do and can market very well.  Especially here in the best basis in the midwest.

 

We do a good job of marketing and most farmers do very well, especially the ones with direct delivery choices which is most everyone after the ethanol expansion.  Beans have been moving off the farm to feed this spring premium which seems to have run out of steam or may be taking a breath for the next leg up.  That is the case unless there is real fundamental information that has changed.

 

Reports are just very incomplete and unresearched.  Whether they come from ag.com or usda..... it is all "sound bite" material...

 

I just like to deliver the message that these are not good information sources and when we use them as sources we should ask questions.  

 

Example that is to the point

 

May 24       ag.com----- "Soybean futures jumped overnight on reports that China's back in the market and corn and wheat were higher on adverse weather. Beans gained almost 11 cents on news that China was again buying from the US."

The actual usda weekly report showed 1.666 million metric tons to china in the week ending May 24, 2018.

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/week4/complete.htm

 

June 1 --- ag.com........ Mike ...... "Soybeans were higher overnight on a Reuters report saying China's state buying agency purchased cargoes from the US, though the number and size weren't announced. Beans gained about 4 cents, corn was up a penny, but wheat dropped 4-6 cents."

The actual usda report showed 1.495 million metric tons to china in the week ending May 31.

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/soybeans.htm

 

June 7-8  ...ag.com....Mike......." Beans lost 6 cents, corn was down 2 cents and wheat lost 6 cents overnight. China was again absent -- other than a cancellation of a previously purchased cargo -- from the export sales report."

 

Jim,  Here is the source I use for usda reports....... they are archived on a weekly basis at usda's website..... for us all to read. 

 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/year2018.htm

 

On every weekly report ending in the month of May 2018----- all 5 of them.  Last being May 31.  China is the top purchasing country for soybeans from the US.   Not one week is without China and none are below 1.4 million metric tons.  That is sizeable for this time of year.

 

Now think back to all the verbage you have been told in the last 4 weeks.

 

USDA gets used as a source just for "credibility" purposes  --- second and third hand.... but the numbers do not match with what is on record.  Not trying to pick on Mike,,,, just saying "things don't get verified when things get verbalized."

 

We the producer and we the messengers need to listen and read with a heavy political filter, especially when media and pendants are all playing the "How will this press release affect the markets?" game.

 

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 171
Registered: ‎04-28-2018
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Re: Floor Talk June 8

hard to return to profitable levels when governments are overthrown at profitable levels by the end consumer. Study Egypt 2008