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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk June 8

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 4 3/4 cents higher at $3.65 1/4 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 5 1/2 cents higher at $3.83 per bushel.
July soybean futures closed 6 1/2 cents higher at $9.44. Nov. soybean futures finished 6 cents higher at $9.20.

July wheat futures closed 11 cents higher at $5.28.

July soymeal futures finished $4.60 per short ton higher at $309.50. The July soyoil futures settled $0.68 lower at $34.10. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.97 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points lower. The Dow has now dropped into negative territory, for the year.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $3.64 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 4 cents higher at $3.82 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 7 cents higher at $9.44. Nov. soybean futures are trading 5 3/4 cents higher at $9.20.

July wheat futures 13 1/2 cents higher at $5.30.

July soymeal futures are trading $6.20 per short ton higher at $311.20. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.66 lower at $34.12. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.84 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points lower.

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says that we are in a seasonal weather rally.  The rains are net good for production but there are some areas that have not seen much fieldwork lately and these areas are just enough to send the shorts to the sidelines.  Some buying before the USDA reports as shorts get out.  Selling from Brazil above the market and I am sure US and Arg producers are selling too.  I tend to think the trade is overestimating planting progress a little bit in the beans, but that does not worry me there is still time.  Corn is done for planting. What is done is all that will get planted.  Disease and scab reports in HRW and SRW areas doing a lot to support Winter wheat."

--Helen Pound, Wedbush Futures vice-president, says that today’s strength reflects the continued desire of Funds and others to reduce the size of short positions.
“This is a movement as we enter a period of increased uncertainty about weather and yield before crops reproduce,” Pound says.  “Not only is this a normal seasonal worry, but there are number of weather issues that could turn into production problems if they become persistent.”
In the US wheat market, some heavy rains are creating quality and protein issues rather than crop size reduction, Pound says.  “On the other hand, dry weather in Canada, Russia, and Australia could turn into wheat production problems if the dry weather persists.  I’m not so concerned about corn and bean production issues, but in general I understand the reluctance to hold a large Short position before the crop has reproduced.”

Other traders are talking about a few things supporting the bean market. Some of the things getting credit for a higher market include: Weaker Dollar, USDA report expected to show fewer beans planted, the Goldman Roll, Argentina farmers selling less soybeans on-year. They sold a lot last week, but remain down on the year.

Mike

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At 10:40am:

Don't look now. But, the oats market, moving higher, is diverging from the lower corn market. Could it be that oats knows?

Mike

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At 9:50am:

NEWS: Interesting Wheat Market Nugget:

Here's a possible longterm bull factor for the wheat market. On Monday, the Foreign Agricultural Service's Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) is reporting that Russia's new way of calculating wheat export tariffs could cut exports and production.

Russia will start using a special formula for the calculation of the wheat export duty. The export duty will be 50 percent of export value minus 5,500 rubles per 1 metric ton (MT), but not less than 50 rubles per 1 MT.
Industry analysts consider that the new export duty may cut wheat exports in the next marketing year (July 2015 through June 2016) by up to 2 million metric tons (MMT). The new export duty will affect domestic wheat production more than exports, because exporters will lay all costs associated with the new export duty on wheat producers and will likely decrease procurement prices. Thus, if the price of wheat (FOB) is $200
-$250, and the dollar is within 50 rubles to 60 rubles per 1 MT, the price that traders will offer to producers for wheat may decrease to 8,000 rubles per 1 MT or below. Currently, the price is 9,000 rubles to 10,000 rubles per 1 MT. Reportedly, the price of 8,000 rubles per 1 MT, will not provide farmers with enough capital to invest in expanding their wheat production. In such an event, farmers would probably reduce wheat crops, replacing them with other crops. According to the National Association of Agricultural Exporters, the introduction of a floating export duty will force Russian exporters of wheat to work mainly with spot contracts, decreasing the role of futures contracts.

What say you?

Mike

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At 9:25am;

We came out strong, out of the gate Monday. But, a double-digit gain in the soybean market has trimmed to just 8¢ higher. With Wednesday's USDA June Report right around the corner, rallies are expected to be thwarted, due to positioning ahead of the data.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 3 1/4 cents higher at $3.63 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 3 cents higher at $3.81 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 12 cents higher at $9.49. Nov. soybean futures are trading 9 cents higher at $9.23.

July wheat futures 9 cents higher at $5.26.

July soymeal futures are trading $5.30 per short ton higher at $310.20. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.41 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 7:50am:

If you missed it Friday, the CFTC Report showed fewer long positions added than the trade thought:

 

 Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds adding minor amounts of net corn, soybean, and meal contracts on the week ending last Tuesday, but loading up in bean oil (+30k on the week) and Chicago wheat (+11.7k). Both those latter two net positions wound up ahead of where daily trade estimates had them pegged. Producers and merchants sold a bit more in the grains, with corn down near 4k net on the week, beans – 16.8k, meal –2.2k, oil –37.4k, and Chi wheat –11.8k as of last Tuesday (6/2).

 

Let me ask, real quick. Who follows this report? Who understands it? Who would like to understand it more? I'm curious of your responses.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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At 6:41am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.44 lower.
Dollar =Lower. 
Wall Street = Seen lower, with volatile bond markets in focus, in addition to concerns with Greece's economy.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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1 Reply
juliedavis91849
Veteran Contributor

Re: I would say it's old news..2 weeks ago, I mention here about

global ag..floati​ng tax on wheat July 1

Wheat exports for 15-16 anticipate tumble to perhaps 29%..maybe as low as 15 mmt should this floating tax be implemented on Jly 1 according to Russian's Grain Union, ja.

 

 

over and out

 

Gottlieb

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