Floor Talk Mach 29

[marketeye]

Well, I'm obviously not licensed to give advice. Perhaps if you just decide to do half of whatever you want to do, you'll be able to sleep at night. And, I'm not really a betting man, not a good one anyway.

In general, it appears the Report will be bullish beans. How bullish? Well, the day could go something like an arrow shooting quickly into the air, lingering, and then angling to the ground on the close, on profit-taking.

Keep in mind funds have sold about 40,000 corn contracts this week. This signals a lot of bearish feelings have been displayed already this week. Maybe this means that if the corn acreage number is not as bearish as people thought, then the market fires up an acreage battle trade day Friday. In that event, that arrow will not angle back to the ground and it might just stay in the air for awhile or get caught in a very high tree.

Mike

[sw363535]

Highyield,  Yep that's about it.  Our report game was a nice gift for the export trade, wasn't it.  Actual Inventory and stocks are not any different from last week or next week.  No new inventory of anything until June.-------just a gift for the trade.  Hopefully the gift lowered whatever stocks we got. 

[roarintiger1]

On early soybeans, I always hope a few guys around here plant beans early.....That's where most of the beanleaf beetles end up!

[marketeye]

It seems like it's a weekly and sometimes semi-weekly event that we get a lower Argentine soybean production number. It has happened again this week. First, my media contacts in South America tell me the yields are poor, coming out of the fields they are watching harvest in. As a result, with 10% of the crop harvested, the Gazeta do Povo newspaper's Crop Expedition Tour estimate of Argentina's soy production is estimated at 45.0 mmt and the corn crop at 22.0 mmt.

An Argentine Exchange is out this morning with its updated soybean estimate at 45.0 mmt.

Mike

[glenlivet18]

giolucas, you better have deep pockets and a strong stomach if you do that.  With the uber-volatility of the last few years, taking positions right before the major crop reports, like January, March, June, and October, is just a crapshoot.  Sure if you're on the right side of it it's great, but if you're on the wrong side it makes you want to jump off a bridge.  I was long corn going into the June 30 report last year and got the hammer dropped on me for 60 cents.  Never again, I said. 

Major crop report days are just too extreme.  I've learned that slow and steady wins the race.  There will be plenty of other opportunities to make money throughout the year.  Right now I'm short the beans from 1370 with a stop at 1365, but if that's not hit I'm getting out before 1:15, period.  I'll sleep soundly tonight and just sit back and watch the fireworks tomorrow. 

[highyields]

If you have any corn or beans in the bin you are LONG the market.  

[Hobbyfarmer]

This weeks price action gives a limit move up tomorrow room to not hit it's head  especially in the corn market. A big move down and well sooner or later VR is bound to be right.

A limit down day tomorrow with the recent slide will have many in marginal growing areas looking at crop revenue coverage as their income level again this year.

Here in southern Iowa we have lost 51 cents a bu on the corn price in the last 10ish days.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Will the last long or bull please turn out the lights as you exit the building?

[lraesemaj]

just as soon as I can find my head.

[sixtysixx]

Hobby, if corn is limit down tomorrow.......I will be needing that wal-mart job.