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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

So, I went looking for info....

and found that the 2011 Brazil bean crop was 75 MMT, 2012 was 66.5 MMT, and the last official WASDE projection for 2013 is 83.5 MMT, but could be sub 80 MMT....

 

so, what is the driver for all the panic about logistics this year in Brazil.....maybe the fact the US crop was subpar and that meant China would be interested in more of the Brazil crop, and sooner......and I am sure those trucker rules are having an effect as well...

 

But to think they had a 75 MMT crop just two years ago, and now it is going to be 80MMT this year.....well, that doesn't pass the smell test as being an "end of the world" situation.....but that is JMO

 

but I suspect that doesn't jive with those of you in the $20 bean camp for some summer beans here in the US.....still likely to be more of a basis story than futures......but that makes it pretty hard to get to $20.....

 

Ray J

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: So, I went looking for info....

Thanks for the numbers Ray , interesting . But If there is  a panic -- for some country's . It not that the bu.s are not there -- but when are they going to receive them . They went down there for 2 reasons , 1 we were short , higher priced and SA had boat loads for cheaper price , I would guess that some of them ship's that are , from what I read , may be 40 to 50 from being loaded , can they hang on till they get them loaded ? and then the time to get them across the pond , then unload ? I also think that I read that China had moved 2 ship's from SA to here for that reason .

 

If China did do this , then how many more may follow there lead ?

 

This is just me thinking out loud again , but it sure seems that the trade don't even act as if we have short beans here , there's no need to fear , S.A is here to save the day .

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: So, I went looking for info....

China is 73% of the global bean imports......EU-27 is second, followed by Mexico, Japan, and some SE Asian countries...

 

although China is the big dog, why do we never hear about the other 27% switching cargoes like China???

 

Maybe they do, and we just don't hear about.....which then makes me think the folks all excited about the process are those with flat price beans to sell, mostly in the US, and hoping to have a "story".....

 

btw, what would be wrong with locking up +230X for a bean basis??? ( based on Quincy, ILL @ +46K)

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: So, I went looking for info....

Ray, I'm not in the business like you , so bare with me , lol But how do's that work , like in SA when ship's are setting around ?  Do they have to pay demurrage ?

 

But to get back on your question about why we only hear about China , when do the pay for the beans ? Ahead of time ? If so then they may be stuck with just waiting it out . Is there a penalty for a cancel on shipment ? If so they just may not have the money to pay it and then come here for beans .

 

Nothing wrong with a + .46 , but here Bunge is showing a - .20 for X , most of the time at the first of cutting they would be + .40 for a week to get beans in .

 

Thanks Ray

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: So, I went looking for info....

Ray , after thinking about your question , why we do hear about others comeing here , I think the answer is in what you just posted , China at 73 % ? It's there diet , They need the protein to feed -- Mexico seems to be more dependent on corn , to make taco's than beans for protein , heck I don't know , lol

Enjoy your post's , makes me think -- sometimes harder than I'm use to , lol

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gurly3801539
Advisor

Re: So, I went looking for info....

When the ship is setting there at anchor how long does it take to tug them in, load, tug them out and set sail again?

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