Floor Talk March 10 (Report Day)

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures finished 3/4 of a cent lower at $3.88 per bushel. Dec. corn futures closed 1/2 of a cent lower at $4.12.
May soybean futures finished 8 3/4 cents lower at $9.84 1/2. The Nov. soybean futures clolsed 6 3/4 cents lower at $9.65 1/4.

The May soyoil futures finished $0.04 lower at $30.96. The May soymeal futures closed $3.10 per short ton lower at $331.00.

May wheat futures ended 3 1/4 cents higher at $4.93 1/4.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.54 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 288 points lower.

Mike

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USDA Says:

U.S. corn 2014-15 carryover at 1.77 billion bushels, compared to the expected 1.822 billion bushels, and the USDA’s February estimate of 1.827 billion bushels.

USDA pegged the U.S. soybean 2014-15 carryover at 385 million bushels, vs. the trade’s expectations of 379 million bushels, and the February estimate of 385 million bushels.

For Brazil, the USDA pegged the country’s 2014-15 soybean production at 94.5    million metric tons, compared with the trade’s expectation of 93.9 million metric tons, and its February estimate of 94.5 mmt. Argentina’s soybean output  was totaled at 56.0 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectations of 56.6 mmt, and the USDA’s February estimate of 56.0 mmt.
For corn, the Brazil 2014-5 crop size is expected at 75.0 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 74.6 mmt, and the USDA’s February estimate of 75.0 mmt. Argentina’s corn output is pegged at 23.5 mmt, compared with the trade’s expectation of 23.3 mmt, and the USDA’s February estimate of 23.0 mmt.

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says: "Today’s WASDE report was a non-event for wheat and soybeans with virtually no projected changes to either balance sheet. Corn ending stocks were reduced primarily due to increased feed and export demand which combined to offset a decrease in corn for ethanol demand. Lower corn prices seem to have stimulated some traditional demand for corn, and demand for ethanol actually remains healthy because the decrease in ethanol related corn usage was due primarily to increased ethanol yields per bushel of corn by ethanol manufacturers. All eyes will now turn toward the weather and the unplanted North American crops. Field access, temperatures, and soil moisture levels will dominate the headlines for the next several weeks as spring planting windows open from south to north."

As a result, the soybean market remains lower. Though corn is working higher, and wheat is up too. What do you think?

TRADE REACTION:

--Anne Frick, Sr. VP/Futures Research, Jefferies Bache, LLC, says that the soybean S/D’s were “déjà vu all over again” to quote Yogi Berra. "No significant change in world soybean or product numbers and no change in U.S. soybean or products supply/demand except for change in 2013/14 soybean oil use in methyl ester (increase of 60 mil lbs from previously) to reflect Friday’s reported date from EIA.  That came out of other domestic.  NO change in price forecasts.  A real snoozer of a report. Attention will be on the survey based, and hence, more important reports, at the end of the month (Mar. 1 stocks and new crop planting intentions.)"

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group v-p, says it was not much of a report, but the market seems to want to buy grain and sell oilseeds, that was probably the message of the report both us and international.

"Corn ending stocks sown slightly, wheat and sbs ending stocks unchanged.  Negative beans, neutral to friendly corn and wheat.
 
World data soybeans slightly friendly as South America production left unchanged and ending stocks are lower
 
World Corn shows slight increase in production for Argentina as expected and lower for South Africa as expected.  Slightly friendly on lower world ending stocks
 
World wheat data shows slightly lower ending stocks but should be mostly neutral
 
US and world rice data neutral to friendly on less ending stocks.  Increased long grain exports are friendly for the US."

---Mike North, President of Commodity Risk Management Group, says that perhaps the biggest change was the adjustment to South African Production, in conjunction with their drought stricken condition. 
“In combination with an increased export number, world supplies were drawn down by 4.36 MMT.  That caused corn futures to come up out of the hole they were digging ahead of the report release and ultimately push prices back to 1 cent higher.  The domestic balance sheet for corn saw some flip flopping as USDA reduced the ethanol usage number that was increased last month by 50 million bushels and re-appropriated that to feed usage.  The increase in world exports was largely a function of the increase in US exports as a 50 million bushel adjustment was made there.  Soybean and wheat domestic balance sheets remained largely unchanged with small gains being made to world ending stocks for soybeans and products and a small reduction made to wheat.” 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $3.90 3/4 per bushel. Dec. corn futures are trading at $4.11.
May soybean futures are trading 5 cents lower at $9.88.

The May soyoil futures are trading $0.24 lower at $30.76. The May soymeal futures are trading $0.20 per short ton lower at $333.90.

May wheat futures are trading 6 1/2 cents higher at $4.96.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.68 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 266 points lower.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the May corn futures are trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $3.87 per bushel. Dec. corn futures are trading at $4.11.
May soybean futures are trading 5 3/4 cents lower at $9.87.

The May soyoil futures are trading $0.25 lower at $30.75. The May soymeal futures are trading $0.80 per short ton lower at $333.30.

May wheat futures are trading 6 1/4 cents lower at $4.83.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.13 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 153 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:55am:

As we await the USDA Report, the day's first report is out. Brazil's CONAB agency released updated projections for its 2014-15 crops.
Total grain production is pegged at 198.5 MMT which will be 2.6% or 4.98 MMT higher than last year. Soybean production estimates are 1.2 mmt below expectations at 93.3 mmt, while the corn production estimate was 0.2 mmt above expectations at 78.1 mmt.  

Mike

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At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents lower. The USDA March S/D & WASDE Reports to be released at 11am CT.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.65 lower.
Dollar =Higher. 
Wall Street = Seen lower, as oil slides.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[giolucas]

Here comes the Pain!!

[nwobcw]

I feel the pain sure wish we had one more year like we had

[giolucas]

Corn report bullish, Beans Bearish.

[marketeye]

Brazil Truckers Update:

On Tuesday, the government made a work group to discuss the proposals and deliver them to the government on March 26. Some members of the trucker's group are on the work group.

Mike