Floor Talk, March 13, 2019
At the close:
At the close, the May futures closed 3/4¢ higher at $3.66 1/2. July futures finished 3/4¢ higher at $3.76 1/4.
May soybean futures finished 4¢ higher at $9.01. July soybean futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $9.14.
May wheat futures ended 5 3/4¢ lower at $4.47 1/4. May soymeal futures settled 1.70 per short ton higher at $304.70. May soy oil futures closed 0.06 lower at 29.93¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.41 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 123 points higher.
At midsession, the May futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.68. July futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.77.
May soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.00. July soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.14.
May wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $4.49.
May soymeal futures are 1.60 per short ton higher at $304.60. May soy oil futures are 0.10 lower at 29.89¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.01 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 170 points higher.
Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platts, head of grain and oilseed analytics, says that negatively perceived comments from U.S. Ambassador Lighthizer on the trade talks seems to have given way to some continuation of yesterday’s gains.
“Rumors that China is in the market for 2.0 million metric tons of U.S. corn are widespread, possibly reversing the export cut in the March WASDE. Continued “noise” about the size of Fund shorts in corn, soybeans, and wheat is getting louder, although it has minimal impact on our fundamental analysis,” Meyer says.
Meyer adds, “Asian Swine Fever issues in China remain noteworthy, with some now suggesting that 30% of the herd has been eradicated. As a result, U.S. hog prices have seen a nice rebound over the past five days, while prompt meal prices barely held $300 yesterday. Always difficult to trade a market dominated by money flow, which is the situation currently.”
In early trading, the May futures are 1¢ lower at $3.64. July futures are 1¢ lower at $3.74.
May soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $8.95 1/2. July soybean futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $9.09 3/4.
May wheat futures are 8 3/4¢ lower at $4.44. May soymeal futures are 0.30 per short ton lower at $302.70. May soy oil futures are 0.14 lower at 29.85¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.93 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 138 points higher.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching the corn market’s performance in the second half of March.
“The funds are holding a large short position in wheat and likely did not find the crop rating decline in Texas very comforting in the Monday afternoon crop condition report. Some local reports suggest the wheat area in Kansas and Oklahoma is not off to as good of start as the crop ratings suggest. Traders will keep a very close eye on the weekly crop ratings in these three states going forward. If wheat has indeed found a low, then can it pull corn and soybeans higher,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
At the close on Tuesday, the funds were estimated to be holding over 200,000 short positions in corn, 80,000 shorts in soybeans and 75,000 shorts in wheat.
Kluis added, “Can corn and soybean prices close over the 20-day average this week? Currently, May corn is about a dime away while May soybeans are 15 cents away. A move over this moving average would indicate the spring low was just etched on the charts."
Re: Floor Talk, March 13, 2019
That asian swine fever issue is getting to be old news....
My guess is that issue can be found in a swine population that big, somewhere at about any time...