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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, March 13, 2020

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures finished unchanged at $3.65. July corn futures ended 1/4¢ lower at $3.68 1/2.

May soybean futures closed 10 3/4¢ lower at $8.48 1/4. July soybean futures settled 9 3/4¢ lower at $8.56.

May soymeal futures closed $3.30 per short ton lower at $299.50. May soy oil futures settled $0.01 cents lower at 26.37¢ per pound.

May wheat futures finished 1/2¢ higher at $5.06.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.65 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 779 points higher.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the May corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.65 1/2. July corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.68.

May soybean futures are 11¢ lower at $8.48 3/4. July soybean futures are 9 3/4¢ lower at $8.56.

May wheat futures are unchanged at $5.05 3/4.

May soymeal futures are $2.40 per short ton lower at $300.40.

 May soy oil futures are $0.17 cents lower at 26.21¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.15 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 404 points higher.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that we are seeing early gains now fading into the second half of the trading session.

“Most markets are following the lead of the stock market. Early this morning the Dow was up 1100 points and we are now trading a gain just half of that. Crude oil traded as much as $2 higher and is now trading 25 cents lower. Corn, beans and the livestock markets are all following the same pattern. Each had posted positive gains earlier in the session and are now lower, or in the case of corn clinking to a penny higher,: O'Connell says.

She added, "Markets that are driven by fear, panic and chaos are not rational. These are not markets that one should try and 'out guess' or beat. All of the technicals and fundamentals can be thrown out the window. I am hopeful that very soon cooler heads prevail. When hysteria passes I would fully expect a recovery of some capacity in each of these markets," O'Connell says.

 

Mike

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At 9am:

 

In early trading, the May corn futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $3.70. July corn futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $3.73.

May soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $8.65 3/4. July soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $8.71.

May wheat futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $5.06 3/4.

May soymeal futures are $2.40 per short ton higher at $305.20.

May soy oil futures are $0.22 cents higher at 26.60¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.91 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 624 points higher.

On Friday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors should be careful trying to pick the bottom of the market.

“Our markets saw more of the same on Thursday. As the US puts in travel restrictions to more countries, and more major events are canceled, people around the world get more nervous. US stock prices had another rough day and that spilled over into commodities. However, on a positive note, we did have some great weekly export sales for corn this week. This has been the trend lately. We are still selling US commodities but that is being overshadowed by the negative stock market," Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, "Be very careful trying to buy commodities now. There is an old saying that applies now: “Never catch a falling knife.” Prices look cheap, but consider options instead. Until the stock market stabilizes, commodities will be under pressure."

 

Mike

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12 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 13, 2020

The sleeper in this is the soy complex.

Corn is in potential trouble with e plant unprofitability. That will lead to less ddgs

 

Soybean meal will be the biggest beneficiary of this scenario. Soy in Brazil are nine plus dollars.

Corn in Brazil is becoming scarce to find free stocks and is in the six dollar range. Wouldn't be first that they imported some. They also have been in livestock feeding building boom.

Beans here are under priced.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 13, 2020

"Never catch a falling knife".....yeah, the corn market is really screaming in to the ground.....zzzzzz

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 13, 2020

Tremendous sums of equity has evaporated in the stock market in the last week. Some sectors down 50% or more.

 

Interest rates down 25% or more on savings. Gonna leave a scar...

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, March 13, 2020

Farmers cant make it on these prices!!!!!!!!!

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 13, 2020

Wait just a minute, we have been being told that the grains have been following the Dow what’s the traders excuse today?   Ohh we get it only when it accounts for their agenda.  So markets down that’s the reason the grains are down. The markets up the grains down just another day right?  Still waiting on these mega trade deal success stories.  Don’t use this pandemic as an excuse remember two weeks ago this administration told everyone it’s just a hoax anyway.  I mean honestly if people haven’t had a wake up call with this bumbling administration they deserve everything that comes.  How many people wish that they have had a real leader now?  Hope everyone is staying safe out there.  Don’t worry if your feeling sick president T. says go to work you’ll probably just get better on your own.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 13, 2020

We seemed to have survived the Swine Flu H1N1 that had millions of Americans sick and 12,000 dead from 10 years ago.  Now with 50 dead and a 1% death rate ...yeah yeah yeah Libs and "15% death rate!!!" no idiots, okay we don`t know how many are sick, if there are 50 dead, there are probably 5,000 that have it but aren`t showing symptoms.  Kids aren`t much affected, they believe they`re bullet proof travelling all over with $100 airfares ...but they can spread it!  Visit a healthy grandma and infect her and bada boom bada bing, the whole nursing home is down with the fatal Covid-19.  

The "hoax" part of Covid-19 is the reaction to it, mouse poison in the hands of intelligent people gets rid of a rodent problem, mouse poison in the hands of a imbecile could kill a lot of people.  Restaurants, travel industry and the support businesses could really suffer and trying to pick which stocks will come out the other end of this is anyone`s guess.  Anyone in the Oval Office subpar to the divine is going to take a lot of unjustified hits from the peanut gallery.

WHO test kits had 30% false results...well, what good are they???  You only get tested when you have symptoms but, the test says you`re good to go and someone infected sneezes AAAhChooo! on you...well back to the drawing board. 

If you`re truly concerned about staying safe from Covid-19 you`ll be understanding and put politics aside (if not now, when?)   But if you`re in it purely for politics, then by all means carry on "Trump wants us dead!!!  yada yada yada" .

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Senior Advisor

Re: What do you care? According to you, it's just a hoax anyways...

What do you care how many people die?  According to you, it's just a hoax anyways.  Hannity, Carlson and Ingraham are still calling it all a hoax over on trump TV.

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Honored Advisor

Re: What do you care? According to you, it's just a hoax anyways...

Let me put it to you like this, Rick.  The fre aking out over the 50 US people  (no children) that died during so far during Covid-19 was proportional during the H1N1 outbreak in which +12,000 people died (including children) ..heads would`ve exploded and we`d still be living in the caveman days aftermath. 

Is Covid-19 dangerous?  Yes.  But if you didn`t  fre akout during H1N1, you don`t have any reason to be fre aking out now.

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Senior Advisor

Re: I'm not "freak'n out" but the stock market sure is.

Besides, you don't get to tell me or anyone else how to think about coronavirus or anything thing else.

Italy has 17,660 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 1266 deaths and 1439 "recoveries".   That's a 7.2 percent mortality.  China had a reported 3.8% mortality. 

  Now, let me put this to you,  some 59 million Americans had swine flu in 2008/2009 and some 12,000 died. That a death rate at 0.02 %.

  If 59 million Americans get this coronavirus at the 7% mortality that'll be 4.1 million dead.

  So, maybe you should just go pound sand.

 

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