Floor Talk March 13
The May corn futures contract settled 3 1/2 cents lower at $4.85. The Dec. corn futures settled at $4.84. The May soybean futures contract finished 9 1/4 cents higher at $13.96. November soybean futures are 3 1/2 cents higher at $11.79. May wheat futures closed 10 cents lower at $6.73 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract finished $5.40 per short ton higher at $441.90. The May soyoil futures ended $0.43 lower at $42.99. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.20 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 240 points lower.
One analyst describes the market action like this: "This is a kind of weird day. Not sure what beans are doing higher, to me the market was acting weak overnight and in the first part of today. We got a tight situation here for sure. It is all SBM for now but why is the question and we are all kind of trying to find out now. Wheat and corn down as Ukraine is more or less calm and the rally from yesterday fading on the export sales report showing as expected or less sales. Some talk of showers in the plains this weekend. Trends are trying to turn down in beans and maybe corn, and wheat will find selling pressure on moves higher. Especially if East Europe stays calm. India is already ramping up to sell this rally according to Reuters, and we might be seeing some highs over there today. But I got to say I did not expect this out of the beans."
Helen Pound, KCG Futures grain analyst, says the markets are eroding, due to overbought feelings in the market.
"Grain futures have traded both sides of unchanged. In early trade, the wheat complex extended its range to new recent highs, but after the “pause” ran into resistance at the short term technical indicators began to show overbought conditions," Pound noted in a letter to customers Thursday.
Weekly export sales were impressive with all the grains showing better sales than needed to hit the yearly USDA export target, she says. "Note that this report is for the week ended last Thursday, so none of the weekend Chinese bean cancellations are included."
The May corn futures contract is trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $4.86. The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 cents lower at $4.84. The May soybean futures contract is 1 3/4 cents lower at $13.85. November soybean futures are 2 1/4 cents lower at $11.74. May wheat futures are 5 3/4 cents lower at $6.78 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $1.50 per short ton higher at $438.00. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.50 lower at $42.92.
At the open:
The May corn futures contract is trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $4.88. The Dec. corn futures open /2 of a cent higher at $4.86. The May soybean futures contract is 3 cents higher at $13.91. November soybean futures are 6 cents higher at $11.82. May wheat futures are 3 cents higher at $6.87 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $2.00 per short ton lower at $438.50. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.24 lower at $43.18.
In the outside markets, the ICE Brent crude oil is $0.26 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 36 points higher.
Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst, sees wheat as Thursday's leader:
"With the bullish run in wheat providing support, May and December corn futures are 2.5 cents higher this morning after trading in a 4.75-7 cents range overnight on decent volume. As the tensions in the Ukraine continue, traders will start to speculate as to the effect on worldwide corn exports. Higher prices for imported seeds as well as chemicals could put a strain on farmers in the Crimean region which accounts for 16% of corn exports. Ethanol production dropped by 25,000 barrels per day last week but remain 11% higher than 2013 levels. Today’s release of export sales data will provide some clarity on the effect of the Ukrainian crisis on exports for US corn.
After suffering double digit losses yesterday, May soybean futures are up a half of a cent this morning while November (new crop) futures are 7 cents higher as we near the close of the overnight trading session. Rumors are circulating that now China is cancelling cargoes of soybeans from Argentina and Brazil due to weak crush margins thereby providing support to new crop soybeans futures. Today’s export sales numbers figure to be around 20 million bushels lower than last week with cancellations by China being regarded as rumor only.
Wheat futures continue their week long bull run as May Chicago futures trading 6 cents higher this morning while December futures are up 4.5 cents. All three wheat exchanges powered through their respective 200 day moving averages which may bring in even more fund buying today. Even though the crops planted in the Ukraine are mostly winter wheat, the unrest in the region is certainly providing some support for worldwide wheat futures markets. Weather concerns here in the US are starting to surface with dry conditions in the Plains raising concerns about the US hard red winter wheat crop. Crops in China and Australia are also in need of rain which just adds to the concerns of the conditions for the worldwide wheat crops," he says.
USDA's Weekly Export Sales report shows:
Corn exports=786,000 tons vs. the trade's expectations of 800,000 metric tons.
Soybeans= 890,400 tons vs. the trade's expectations of 500,000 to 1.3 million metric tons.
Wheat= 566,100 tons vs. the trade's expectations of 600,000 metric tons.
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.04 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks were lower.
More in a minute,
Re: Floor Talk March 13
Delaying planting into late April or early May probably increases average yield not lowers it.
There is no reason to think planting will be delayed at this time. Just like last year when everyone in NW IA/Mn was worried about the drought in February. I told them to buy an extra planter because they would need it. :-)
Re: Floor Talk March 13
bean sales: more 14-15 sales will potentially add crunch -next yr. - we're talkin' a crop not ready to consume for 19-20 months --and US is already selling the JACK out of it.
last 2 crop years are PERFECT examples of the effects/lack thereof - on planting dates.