Floor Talk, March 14, 2019
At the close:
At the close, the May futures finished 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.70 1/4. July futures closed 3 1/4¢ higher at $3.79 1/2.
May soybean futures finished 2 1/2¢ lower at $8.98. July soybean futures closed 2 1/2¢ lower at $9.12 1/4.
May wheat futures ended 5 1/2¢ higher at $4.52 3/4. May soymeal futures finished 1.20 per short ton higher at $305.90. May soy oil futures closed 0.36 lower at 29.57¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.
At midsession, the May futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $3.71. July futures are 4¢ higher at $3.80.
May soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.02. July soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $9.16.
May wheat futures are 10 1/4¢ higher at $4.57. May soymeal futures are 1.80 per short ton higher at $306.50. May soy oil futures are 0.22 lower at 29.71¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.43 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points higher.
Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that corn has found support after setting new contract lows last week.
“The funds had pushed to the largest short position that they have held since Jan 2018. A casualty at that time to the soybean and wheat markets heavy fundamentals. The first area of resistance that we will test is the 3.80 zone which the March contract struggled mightily with,” O’Connell says.
Wheat finally caught a bit of a bid, as bottom feeders began to feel it a value buy given the time of year, O’Connell says.
“A flurry of export sales have also given support as the U.S. has finally become competitive in the global market. With burdensome supplies and no positive news regarding a trade deal with China, beans will likely continue to struggle. A meeting between the two presidents has been pushed back "until at least April". Corn will have to remain cautious, as we move into spring, as to not buy too many acres.”
For the week, wheat futures are up 4.38%, corn is up 1.44%, while soybeans are up just 1/4%.
For the month, wheat is down the most at 9.57%.
So, maybe some oversold ideas are helping the wheat market recover?
On Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report strong soybean figures.
Corn= 846,600 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 800,000-1.500,000 mmt.
Soybeans= 1.911 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 1.10 mmt.-2.0 mmt.
Wheat= 346,000 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000-750,000 mt.
Soybean meal= 226,000 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 50,000-300,000 mt.
What say you?
In early trading, the May futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.69. July futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.78.
May soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $8.98. July soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $9.12.
May wheat futures are 9¢ higher at $4.56. May soymeal futures are 0.30 per short ton higher at $305.00. May soy oil futures are 0.32 lower at 29.61¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.42 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 59 points lower.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching the March contracts expire today.
“March futures on corn, soybeans and wheat all go off the board at 12:00 CT today. What price will they have when they expire? We will likely see a gap higher once we roll to the May contract. We will fill that gap within one or two weeks,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
At the close on Tuesday, the funds were estimated to be holding over 200,000 short positions in corn, 80,000 shorts in soybeans and 75,000 shorts in wheat.
Kluis added, “Talk of China buying some corn off the Pacific Northwest got the corn market excited. We took a lower trade on Wednesday and turned it higher. The funds are rumored to be holding a record short position in corn and a large short position in soybeans ahead of spring planting. This means we could see an interesting spring planting season.'