Floor Talk March 18

[marketeye]

U.S. 2014 Acreage Estimates:

Walsh Trading Inc. has released its estimates for the March 31, 2014 Report:

U.S. PLANTED ACREAGE
                        
Corn= 92.300                    
Soybeans= 79.100
All Wheat= 54.800
Spring Wheat= 11.000
Durum= 1.390

Reaction: What do you think? Is that corn estimate too large? What about that soybean estimate, seem large?

Thanks,

Mike

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At the close:

The May corn futures contract closed 7 1/4 cents higher at $4.86. The Dec. corn futures finished 5 3/4 cents higher at $4.87. The May soybean futures contract closed 26 1/2 cents higher at $14.18. November soybean futures finished 8 cents higher at $11.84. May wheat futures ended 18 cents higher at $6.92 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract settled $9.20 per short ton higher at $455.80. The May soyoil futures closed $0.38 higher at $42.27.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.29 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 103 points higher.

One analyst sizes up the market like this: " it looks like a lack of demand destruction for beans.  We know that the July-November spread is well below where it has been in previous years and we arguably could have a tighter carryout in 2013 than we did in 2012. Domestic crush could be higher than the USDA is estimating and we still have plenty of sales on the books that have to be rolled to 2014 or cancelled to fit the USDA estimate.  With these fundamentals in mind I don't there there is anyone willing to step in front of this market and go short.  Total lack of sellers means higher old crop prices," he says.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The May corn futures contract is trading 5 cents higher at $4.84. The Dec. corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $4.85. The May soybean futures contract is 20 1/4 cents higher at $14.12. November soybean futures are 5 1/2 cents higher at $11.81. May wheat futures are 10 cents higher at $6.84 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $6.70 per short ton higher at $453.30. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.29 higher at $42.18.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.01 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 90 points higher.

Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy Group analyst, says Ukraine's market-impact is ongoing. "I think that Putin and the Ukraine are the story and while that should have no effect on soybean prices, the U.S. is out of soybeans and it’s the easiest thing to buy because it.  There’s fear premium moving back into the market as far as I can see and nothing fundamentally that supports today’s rally.  A real input vacuum until March 31st."

Meanwhile, Matt Connelly, CME Group floor trader with Futures International, says China is moving the soybean market. "Beans are higher due to China’s Ag minister increasing March soybean imports to 5.25 mmt from 3.49.  Also, yesterday's crush # offered no help to the bear camp.  Bean market feels like it has to go higher, if there are no cancellations from the Chinese. The soybean carryout is closer to 100 million bushels. We will learn more after the end of month report," he says. 

Mike

At the open:

The May corn futures contract is trading 2 1/4 cents higher at $4.81. The Dec. corn futures open 2 cents higher at $4.84. The May soybean futures contract is 14 1/4 cents higher at $14.06. November soybean futures are 2 1/4 cents higher at $11.78. May wheat futures are 3 3/4 cents higher at $6.78 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $6.10 per short ton higher at $452.70. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.04 higher at $41.93.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.

Mike

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At 8am:

Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, sees today's markets this way:

"May corn futures are 3 cents higher this morning after trading in a 6 cent range overnight on steady volume. Corn futures are holding chart support levels as demand remains decent for US corn. South Korea bought 7.6 million bushels of corn overnight with the majority coming from the US. If the geo-political unrest remains the same traders will get ready for some range bound trade from US corn futures.

May soybean futures are back over the $14 level, trading 13 cents higher this morning as we wind down this morning. Strong export inspections yesterday provided some strength to the soybean complex but at one point overnight it looked like the bears were going to undo the gains from yesterday. The weather news from South America is becoming less of a factor for world markets as we near the planting season for US crops.

After dropping 12.75 cents yesterday, May Chicago wheat futures are holding onto overnight gains and are trading 3 cents higher this morning. Some models have growing conditions for the plains states dropping in quality, trimming bushels per acre estimates for US wheat. Rains in Russia, China, the Ukraine and Australia are helping the worldwide wheat crops keeping futures soft on global exchanges," Coelman says.

Mike

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At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 9-11 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.23 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks were higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[DKIL]

Mike, did you happen to put some old comments up for the open. I don't see corn down that much.

[marketeye]

Correction: Yes, I hit the wrong button. The opening prices have been corrected.

Mike

[Wind]

Mike,  I see that April unleaded gasoline is $2.88 and April ethanol is $2.50.  Why is ethanol rising so high?  Not much of a spread between those two products.  Does that mean anything?

[Hobbyfarmer]

7 million acres NOT planted in the northern heartland needs to be added to last years totals somewhere.

Large swaths of western South Dakota are being broke out of pasture too. Hearing reports of "crop insurance" corn going to be planted in the western desert of Ks. Acres are available. Not so sure the total yield will add up to much over 14,000,000,000 no matter what. Early frost will fix the totals this year.

[Palouser]

Problems distributing ethanol by rail due to cold is the last story I heard.

[marketeye]

Wind,

Here is the answer from my energy analyst source, just for you. Ask and you shall receive. He says:

"We have seen tight supplies of ethanol. That has caused a big spike.  Last week, the Energy Information  Administration reported that supplies in the Midwest and East Coast tightened dramatically, leading to a drawdown of 703,000 barrels.  Demand has been strong and production fell by 25,000 barrels a day. On top of that, the drought in Brazil and the possibility of exports kept us buzzing. Sugar got some rain.

Mike

[farmerguy89]

I'm plowing 50 of sod this spring for beans.

Can't do too much of that in the sprin though or youll be going in june

I imagine people will do the same as me

[giolucas]

Beans and Wheat moving nicely today.  Can we push higher by end of week?  

[elcheapo]

Farmer#89. I hope you have got all your
Blessing done at the FDA office for
"Sod busting". Part of the new farm
bills is that you must be in conservation
Compliance. Hope that sod is not
Considered eroded. Might consider
No-till. Any way you do it first couple
Of years you will suffer from "sod effect".
Good luck