Floor Talk March 19

[marketeye]

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 8 3/4 cents lower at $6.61 1/2. The July soybean contract closed 7 1/4 cents lower at $13.73 1/2. The July wheat futures finished 16 1/4 cents lower at $6.61. The July soybean meal futures finished $3.60 per short ton lower at $372.10. The July soyoil futures settled $0.10 lower at $55.79. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.99 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 18 points.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.65. The July soybean contract is trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $13.77 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 12 3/4 cents lower at $6.64 1/2. The July soybean meal futures trade $1.20 per short ton lower at $374.50. The July soyoil futures trade $0.32 lower at $55.57. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.64 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 17 points.

One analyst says, "Prices came back after the opening, I think maybe due to some spec-buying.  However, in soybeans the spreads are weak and implies some cash-selling around the country somewhere.  I am not seeing much from Brazil, but I think others are selling.  Selling is occurring, in general, on the weather here which is wonderful. A lot of producers are out getting fertilizers on and doing other fieldwork.  Plus, rain in the forecast for central and southern wheat areas and then Chicago, can’t ask for better for these guys.  Outside markets not really helping out at all, seems we are looking at the weather and the potential for early planting here and the harvest progress in Brazil, as reasons to take some longs off the table.  But no forceful selling. Overall, a pretty quiet session so far, which I had expected to be busier today."

Mike

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At 10:45am:

The farm markets have trimmed their losses. In fact, new crop soybeans are unchanged, at the moment. Corn is working its way towards  positive territory. Are you still holding or have you decided to move some old-crop this week?

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 6 1/4 cents lower at $6.63. The July soybean contract is trading 7 3/4 cents lower at $13.72 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 10 3/4 cents lower at $6.66 3/4. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 13 points.

Mike

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At 8:31am:

The talk is that Brazilian farmers have been selling a lot of soybeans. This is weakening the cash basis in B razil and the U.S.

Apparently, the increase in the U.S. Dollar against the Real is price-positive for Brazilian farmers. So, they are selling beans. A 60 lb bag of soybeans is selling for 53.50 reals in Rio Grande Do Sol, 50-52.00 reals in the state of Parana and around 44.-46.0 reals in Mato Grosso.

Mike

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At 7:50am:

Iraq buys 300,000 mt of Canadian wheat. Oooh, that's going to hurt the wheat market's psychology don't you think?

Mike

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At 6:30am:

The Week Ahead:

Technically speaking, the corn market favors the long side, Tom White, a floor corn pit trader and co-owner of Future Road.net says. "The market finally found direction as we broke out of a triangle pattern which we have been discussing.  We also see a chart which shows the possibility that we have also broken a trend line off a reverse head and shoulders pattern. Thus, if we are able to hold the “cut through trend lines”, i.e. the areas where the breakout occurred, the bias for now is to the long side.  From an intra-week standpoint, however, we must take it day by day. For example, weekly pivot analysis would indicate a move back to at least $6.62 3/4 at some point during the week," he says.

Mike

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At 6:25am:

Early calls: Corn 7-9 cents lower, soybeans 9-11 cents lower, and wheat 8-10 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.35 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower with a quiet economic reporting day ahead. Apple Inc. is set to announce what it will do with its $100 billion of cash on-hand. Investors await that news.

World Markets=Mixed.

More in a minute,

Mike

[4wd]

That's fine, let the traders pull it back to $6.62 today, but tomorrow, buy, buy, buy

I am long in the bins, and the closer we get to $7.00, the weaker my trigger finger gets.

[marketeye]

The thinking this week is that as long as this weather stays fieldwork-friendly, farmer-selling will be limited. With little farmer-selling, the cash and futures markets go higher. Although, we are certainly not starting out that way today.

Mike