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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk March 23

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures finished 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.77 1/4. July futures closed 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.85 3/4. May soybean futures settled 1 1/2¢ lower at $10.28 1/4.  July soybean futures settled 1 1/2¢ lower at $10.39. May wheat futures finished 4 1/2¢ higher at $4.60 1/4. May soy meal futures finished $9.90 per short ton higher at $377.90. January soy oil futures closed 0.46 lower at 31.42¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.29 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.

 

Mike

 

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.73. July futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $3.81. May soybean futures are 11 1/4¢ lower at $10.18.  July soybean futures are 11 3/4¢ lower at $10.29. May wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $4.51. May soy meal futures are $0.40 per short ton higher at $368.40. January soy oil futures are 0.38 lower at 31.50¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.24 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points lower.

 

Mike

 

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At 10:30am:

On Friday, the USDA announced Weekly Export Sales Report, delayed from yesterday. Corn and soybean sales were within the trade expectations, while wheat sales beat expectations.

  • Corn= 1.48 mmt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 1,000,000-2,600,000 mt.
  • Soybeans= 899,000 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 700,000-1,600,000 mt.
  • Wheat= 428,600 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-400,000 mt.

 

Mike

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At 9:00am:

In early trading, the May corn futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.71. July futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.79. May soybean futures are 15 1/4¢ lower at $10.14.  July soybean futures are 15 1/4¢ lower at $10.25. May wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $4.52. May soy meal futures are $3.80 per short ton lower at $364.20. January soy oil futures are 0.28 lower at 31.60¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.94 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 97 points higher.

 

Mike

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Soybeans tanked overnight on concerns that Beijing will take its frustrations over US tariffs on its products out on imports of American beans. China announced a list of 128 items it's considering adding levies against but soybeans, at least so far, aren't on the list, but pork is. The concern is that the Chinese government knows how important it is to the U.S. bean export market so if it wants to make a big splash, the oilseeds are on the short list. Beans lost 17 cents overnight, corn was down about 6 cents and wheat dropped 5-7 cents. The National Pork Producers Council and American Soybean Association released statements noting the harm the tariffs would cause and railing against the imposition of our own tariffs on Chinese goods since it was a foregone conclusion that the Chinese would retaliate against U.S. tariffs. In weather news, it's going to be a winter wonderland this weekend in the northern Plains and central Midwest as the Dakotas, southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will all get hit by a very large storm. Up to 15 inches of snow is expected in parts of Iowa while North Dakota will see about a foot. Get all the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-march-23.

 

Brent Crude Oil = up 0.2%.

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.1%.

Dollar = down 0.3%

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.

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5 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 23

It`s a lot of sticky wickets, China owns Smithfield...do they put a tariff on their own pork?  There isn`t enough soybeans in the world to met their protein needs, so do they cut their nose off to spite their face in tariffing US beans?  We buy $360 billion more from them each year than they buy from us, do they really want to get in a contest? 

 

I think it comes down to, they really do need food, so would they rather employ their people making I phones and Samsung TV's (finished products) and buy raw pork and raw soybeans from us?  ...We "want" cheap Walmart junk, they "need" a better diet to keep their people from revolting.  They`ll go kicking and screaming like a 4yr old that doesn`t want to go to Disneyland, but once they get there, they`ll enjoy it.

Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk March 23

How perfect the traders where looking for yet another reason too knock the crap out of the farmers prices and boom china steps. That's ok farmers don't need too make money anyway we just wanna make sure everyone else does.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 23

The only price that matters is the price on the day you want or need to sell.  Other than that, traders can do anything they want and it's irrelevant.  Hedging and corp insurance pretty much take the risk out of marketing if done well, and that is mostly seasonals.  Traders don't bother me or affect my income.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 23

Well, it`s kind of funny in this latest run up on "Argentina" we were (probably wisely) advised to "scale up sales".  The prices offered were either on the very low or below a honest cost of production.   It seems to me the new crop prices offered should be on the higher end, if not a mid end cost of production, being as the "seed is still in the bag".  But there`s a crystal ball and Elwynn Taylor etal are hinting at another above trend crop on the way.  

 

Then you hear of bank examiners (not bankers) are putting the kibosh on some operating loans that haven`t already been approved.   Back in the 80`s I recall 6 pages of auctions in the Rochester Ag News, this week it was 2 pages.   I don`t think there`s enough farmers left anymore for week after week of 6 pages of sales.   With consignment sales like Richie Brothers and Preston and Dexter, that also hides many of the liquidations.   

 

But if there`s a mad scramble to keep a operation going with no plowdown fertilizer and Epley seed, there may not be that swinging for the bleachers on yield as in past years.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 23

Still in a rain shadow here. 3 tenths here yesterday. Still many tile lines NOT even dripping.

 

Not feeling real good about this season. Still going to swing for the lights on the light cluster just left of center field.

 

No heat units yet this year.

 

Visited with a farmer that said he is going 7 acres of beans for every 2 acres of corn. Had a list of yield enhancements he was working on over last year.

 

Had a banker tell me the only ones making money were the high yield farmers. Bet he doesn't get to meet the high profit ones.

 

Not going to scrimp much at my place over previous years ...already been doing that for decades. When your on the bottom nowhere to go but up...

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