Floor Talk March 27

[marketeye]

VIDEO: Preview of Planting Intentions Report.

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At the close:

The July corn futures settled 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.30 3/4. The July soybean contract closed 8 cents lower at $13.76 1/4. The July wheat futures ended 18 cents lower at $6.52 1/4. The July soymeal futures finished $1.60 per short ton lower at $376.80. The July soyoil futures finish $0.31 lower at $55.52. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.26 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 1 point.

One analyst says to look for traders to unwind spread trades ahead of Friday's report. "Spread trading is expected to be big this week on several fronts," he says.
One, the planted acreage report affects new crop December corn futures and new crop November beans and our 2013 ending stocks inventory from its eventual production, he says. "Old crop futures would be more influenced by Friday's Quarterly Stocks if it has more affect concerning current crop year inventory for corn and beans that ends August 31."
We also expect a lot of old and new crop spreading between July and December corn and July vs. November beans. All this should continue to give us wild swings in the grains prior the report as traders move in and out of trades."

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 1 3 /4 cents higher at $6.37 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 6 3/4 cents lower at $13.77 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $7.07 1/2. The July soymeal futures are trading $2.90 per short ton lower at $375.50. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.29 lower at $55.54. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.21 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 6 points.

Mike

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At 11am:

South Africa released fresh crop estimates Tuesday. For 2012, South African corn growers are expected to raise 11.3 million metric tons, down slightly from a year ago and about what was expected. Soybean production estimate is at 720,000 mt, down 4% from a year ago.

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 4 3/4 cents higher at $6.40 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 4 1/4 cents higher at $13.88 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $6.70 1/4. The July soymeal futures are trading $.20 per short ton lower at $378.40. The July soyoil futures are trading unchanged at $55.83. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.54 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 8 points.

Mike

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At 8:05am:

--USDA announces Tuesday that China bought 120,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.

--S. Korea bought 65,000 mt of U.S. corn.

--Iran is buying a lot more wheat than expected this year, including rare purchases of U.S. wheat.

Mike

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At 6:35am:

Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.20 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading flat ahead of consumer confidence and housing reports. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments yesterday about longterm unemployment has some traders thinking another round of quantitative easing may be on the way.

World Markets=Higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

ok, so I was going to take a break from posting, and still am, but I had to bite on this video..............its this kind of stuff that gets me hot under the collar, and thus a need for a break.........

listen good and hard from the 5 minute mark to the 6 minute mark..................he makes two comments that ought to make you steam..........first is the comment about "being quite amusing for bystanders like himself"...............this guy has zero skin in the game talking about something he knows nothing about.................second is the comment about "the USDA being quite clear about what its assumptions have been""both of which were fairly in tune with what the market was guaging"...................so is the USDA acting just like the FED with regards Wall Street versus BOT................

sorry for the rant.............no need for coffee this AM...........

[marketeye]

Mizzou_Tiger,

Coffee is getting cheaper. Go ahead and have a cup. He sees the report as ho-hum on the idea that the numbers have been talked about for awhile and could very well come in as expected.

Mike

[GoredHusker]

The last major report to come out was the January report.  The corn market heading into that report was overbought.  Even though the January report was neutral, we traded limit lower.  Heading into this report, the corn market is oversold.  I'd venture to guess we'll bounce in here.  If one goes back and looks at the trade on the day the March 30th report is released, they may very well find a common theme particularly since Bush signed the ethanol mandates into law. 

[marketeye]

Do you see a limit trading day?

Mike

[GoredHusker]

I wouldn't rule it out.  The triangle formation in the corn chart has been breached both to the highs and to the lows now.  A limit day in the May contract wouldn't even get us to the high a week and a half ago.  I could see us trading a limit move in old crop corn, but I doubt we get their on new crop unless USDA puts out a low acreage number for corn.  However, we must keep in mind that new crop corn has basically been the ugly stepchild in terms of it being the short leg in corn on corn spreads and soybean on corn spreads.