Floor Talk March 27

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled 1/2¢ lower at $3.55 3/4, while December futures finished 1/2¢ higher at $3.80. May soybean futures closed 4 1/4¢ lower at $9.71. November soybean futures finished 6¢ lower at $9.71. May wheat futures closed 4¢ lower at $4.20 3/4. May soy meal futures ended $2.90 per short ton lower at $315.30. May soy oil futures closed $0.06 higher at 32.29¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.27 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 55 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.54, while December futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.78. May soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $9.71. November soybean futures are 6¢ lower at $9.71. May wheat futures are 6¢ lower at $4.18. May soy meal futures are $2.10 per short ton lower at $316.10. May soy oil futures are $0.10 lower at 32.13¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.29 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says that most investors are looking ahead to Friday. 
“The ideas are that the USDA March Supply/Demand and Prospective Plantings Reports will have big ending stocks levels, with some discussion on area. But, there will be a lot of soybeans either way,” Scoville says. 
He adds, “Most investors are just watching the market and their positions with little in the way of new interest around.  Farmers in the US are selling the board but less interested in selling cash, due to weak basis levels.  Rains are in the forecast for Argentina, delaying the harvest.”
“But mostly people waiting and watching for Friday’s reports,” Scoville says.

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the May corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.56, while December futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.80. May soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ lower at $9.70. November soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $9.71. May wheat futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $4.22. May soy meal futures are $1.00 per short ton lower at $317.20. May soy oil futures are $0.55 lower at 31.68¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.76 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 136 points lower.

Mike

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Wheat fell overnight while beans and corn were little changed after rain, yes, actual rain, fell in parts of the southern Plains. Western Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas received some precip on Saturday and central and eastern Oklahoma got some on Sunday. Wheat futures fell about 2 cents overnight. Corn and soybeans were down about a penny. More rain is forecast for the area on Tuesday, which will help winter wheat that's been seeing some extremely dry conditions for the past 30 to 45 days. Money managers pushed their bearish bets on corn to the highest level since the first week of the year and are not as bullish on beans as they have been. 

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = 0.6% lower.  

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.9% lower.

Dollar = down 0.5%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading after Trump healthcare bill fails

World Markets = Global stocks lower on US, Brexit worries. 

[Wind]

Looks like lots of welcome rain coming to the dry SW.  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf

We ended up with a 1 inch rain here in central IA.  with this last rain event.  Nice slow rain.  We are now waiting for the calendar and the weather to line up and most likely the planters will be rolling in less than a month.  The easiest part of farming is coming up.  The hardest part is still to know how and when to sell the crop.

[Wind]

click on the 1-7 day total to get the 7 day forecasted rain totals.  I know, you will believe it when you see it!

[BA Deere]

Was down in the Iowa City area and they actually looked dry, I bet they will be planting in 2, 3 weeks.  Up north we maybe got 3/10ths"  but the ground is so saturated that we really need a month of sun & wind and no rain to get this soil in shape.  I had a field pond right on top of some tile lines, well I dug down to the tile and cut a hole, the ground is so messed up with the weight of this water it can`t get to the tile and when I got a hole made, it looked like this   🙂

[sw363535]

The map is forcasting for the next 7 days and I sure hope that is right....

this last week events were very fast moving localized lightning storms 

Streaks got an inch +  But the most area got 1/4 inch

half inch in a few places.

And the wife spent thursday evening making sandwiches for the firefighters who worked all evening.....

Two fires between liberal ks and Kismet Ks  threatened the ethanol plant and Kismet town.

Then when secure they rushed to Perryton Texas (40 miles south) where the town was preparing for evacuation.

The storms were moving 50+ mph south to north and lightning on the east edge of it was setting fires that were blown east by the winds off the storm cells.... This is such a goofy problem...

Every morning this week you could wake up and smell moisture and smoke with east winds bringing the ash and dust from the big Ashland fires to us then. But thursday when the storms came  the wind would turn westerly and storms in narrow bands worked south to north setting new fires and dropping heavy rain on the same narrow strip.

Conditiions are odd and the big CRP growth on the last two years rains are fueling a lot of this.  Of course there are usda rules that prohibit controling that growth.  East and southeast of us here around liberal ks is the big native pastures of the Ashland area.  And south and west of us in the oklahoma panhandle and Sw Ks is some lf the largest CRP acre areas in the US.

And naturally the only thing between here and there is a "barb wire fence" or many fences.  Mix in irrigated continuous corn ground that is limited tilleage and very burnable --- and a small very poor wheat crop is all that won't burn.

Mix in our usual high strung March winds and what could happen is.

I have heard some reference to this as a St. Elmo's Fire possibility where aptmospheric conditions elevate the static electricity to create fire problems.  We had reports of in in the 1950's and with earlier pioneers. "like tumbleweeds rolling across the plains glowing and giving off big visible sparks. ----- there that is my share of "hoaky" this morning.

[Wind]

Looks like a nice slug of rain coming your way.  Hopefully those brown burned out fields will turn green.