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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 28

Corn @ 7.1 billion bushels.

Beans @ 989 million bushels

 

We have not used even half of last years corn crop in exports or useage?

 

BUT we only have 25% of the beans left?


7 months behind us with only 5 to go till a meaningful harvest starts.

 

Looks to me like too many rose colored glasses were sold. Those gals of South Podunk Industries out did themselves. From now on NO orders will be accepted from brokers, analysts, traders, and especially USDA employees.

 

On a serious note how many farmers on here have any beans left?

Only two of us have admitted to having any left.

Should be a moon shot on them in a few areas in another month. Basis may do the heavy lifting again this year.

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 28

Hobby, got a few beans left here........would've sold them by now if the price was where it needed to be......Smiley Wink

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 28

Hobby - I know the memory is short - but don't you remember?  The 7.5 million acres lost didn't matter because of the hugh crops grown elsewhere - just like we will this year.  We'll get to see a trot out of the same old story lines that have worked in the past.  Huge acres of everything planted.  Record yields that are certainly going to occur.  Plentiful rainfall - even if it doesn't the new varieties don't need water anyway (they're more like a bromeliad now).  New varieties have their own form af antifreeze, evidenced by all the corn that was standing in the upper midwest through the winter (it was actually and experiment to see if the corn continued to grow and put nutrients into the cob in the winter).  Sell now guys, while you still have a chance!  Same old, same old.  But it must work since they keep doing it and farmers keep selling at levels that make those putting out the story line richer.

 

Here's one from today headlines....The plane.  Where is it.  Today's Story Line is that the plane isn't where they thought.  There is a real break in reasoning here though.

 

1.  We know how long the airplane flew (according to the authorites) because of the pings that were received at hourly intervals.  Right - That is time - x number of hours.

 

2.  Yesterday, they reported the the airplane was flying FASTER than they thought (gee - it took 3 weeks to figure out that if you have a series of blibs on the radar, and you know how often the target is being interigated (seen) and how far it is from the radar, it doesn't take a math genious to figure out how fast the airplane was traveling.  But apparently, in this case, it did.  Now - here's the  point.  If we know the time the airplane flew by #1 above, and we know the airplane was flying faster than was first thought - doesn't this put the aircraft farther away?  Fuel on board is immaterial - BECAUSE WE SUPPOSEDLY KNOW THE TIME IT FLEW!  Obviously, one or more of the calculations have to be off.  The long and the short - they don't know where this aircraft is.  Bin Laden was killed on May 2nd.  We may find it then.....

 

Jen

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 28

By the way - I don't have any beans left.  But I do have pots!  And I'm-a-stirring....

 

Jen

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 28

How many boat loads is 350,000,000 bu?

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 28

175 panamax vessels

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 28

"For the most part, the grain markets are very quiet in pre-report type trade. The USDA is scheduled to release its Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting Reports on Monday.

 

The exception to the quiet trade is wheat. Wheat prices are down 13-17 cents at all three exchanges as traders are taking profit s on long positions prior to the reports.

 

There are two items that are providing most of the support for corn and bean markets here recently. The first item is the old crop soybean stocks, which are extremely tight. The market will likely need to find ways to either slow exports or promote larger imports for the next five months. The second supportive item is the cold spring weather. It’s been quite persistent so far here this spring. The trade is concerned that spring planting be delayed if this cold pattern doesn’t break.

 

Overall, markets are very quiet today with the exception of wheat. Be prepared for some fireworks on Monday. We typically see some pretty significant surprises in the Quarterly Stocks numbers. We also have the Prospective Planting Report. So, of all the numbers that are going to be released on Monday, we’re likely to see some surprises that could be significant market movers." 

*******************************************************

 

Let's see 145 bean carryover/out # worked backwards might take most of those ships to fix that #.

 

Those snow pictures are of last night's snow. They are back to a 18" amount on the level. Oh Joy

 

BTW I requested they NOT send any of those snow seeds my way.  

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Senior Advisor

I have to say Mike .....

..... there is NO WAY I buy 20-30% lower soy for China. That's what's implied by the comments. And it's because of bird flu? Sorry, I just haven't heard the numbers out of China to substantiate anything of this magnitude going on. Not only that, but China's gargantuan hog numbers are eating mountains of soy each day. To reach the kind of numbers given here would almost mean the poultry in China would have to have been close to being wiped out. I've heard nothing of the kind.

 

But, I'd certainly be happy if someone would point me to more official information to confirm the claims. My bet is China sets yet another, in a very long string, of records for soy consumption each and every year. I doubt anyone would seriously bet against that at this point.

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Senior Advisor

Re: I have to say Mike .....

I have to agree with Pal on the bird flu deal , But I did read months ago warning of decrease in bean useage in China after there New year thing that last'd like a month or so over there , It said that ( now don't quote me on this 100 % ) it was like they slaughtered 20 or 30 % of there hogs in that time frame , so that could be the problem there - not the birds .

 

Also on cancellations from SA from China and others , I had read that after last years disaster trying to load out beans in SA that many MAY have over bought - like s in that they spoke for 4 boat loads when they only needed 2 bots to cover there needs - with thoughts that SA would never be able to load out 4 -- SURPRISE they did load out 4 . Know what ?

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Senior Advisor

Re: I have to say Mike .....

Mike asked

 

What's everybody think about Monday's USDA Planting Intentions/Quarterly Stocks Report?

 

A) Bullish or bearish

 

I will go with a 75%  of going either way on this one , Remember they not only own the ball and bat but also the bases !

 

B) Stocks more important than acreage

 

Would agree 100% - All I have read - heard is that corn useage is to high - still it it could come in nutural .

 

C) Corn stocks will be high enough to pressure the market

 

Just don't know , cattle numbers are down , sick hogs , BUT it takes alot of corn in a cold winter to keep them warm also since corn price has come down , then , like dairy guys that dumped corn because of cost are back to useing it again .  

 

D) Major snowstorm forecast for the same day will trump the Report

 

Let it snow ! As long as it's NOT in East Central Indiana - How about the U.P. Dan and jdg already has a bunch on the ground , right Hobby ? lol

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