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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

use today as a gift horse and quit looking at it in the mouth. 

 

Those who did not lock in better prices earlier now have the choice of waiting for a rally or admitting they goofed and dump some before it goes lower, all while making money off the mistaken market.

 

Too many forget that the 'market' does not care if you and I make money or not. It is our responsibility to market our produce at the best we can get not 'the markets'.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

Well, I sure am on the wrong side of the current market.  The season is early, but it's a deeper hole than I'd expected to have to dig out of.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

Canuk  you have to feel good about that early pricing decision, because the moment you did it you were out of options.  But why would I price a crop I don't have to plant?  Why lock myself into a high risk position?  Why farm without options (croping options)  or marketing options?  

 

I have seen your plan backfire 4 times, and It cost us a neighbor every time.  Trying to buy a crop to deliver is much worse that shying away from a corn and bean market at this point to go with a less risky option.  But then we have a much longer planting window with 60 days of corn planting options, then more for beans, grain sorghum, or sunflowers. or silage for the feedlots.

So you make that early decision to depend on public assistance,  I like choices, and markets will work much better when we all learn to exercise our options without paying premiums for our losses.

 

It is just as bad for me on the south side of the "belt" to tell others how to live as it is for those on the north side to tell others how not to live.

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

Well I guess we’ll just let the families that lost loved ones and fought for what we have today for a few mega farms that just export wealth out of our country whether it be legal or not.
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

Over by Luverne , Iowa a couple farms were rented this spring for $375 and $410 per acre, I don`t know if the tenant has renter`s remorse after this report...I doubt it.  You can`t rely on the sympathy of the USDA reports to bail you out, there`s more than enough corn & beans at the buffet table.  If they find a extra 270m bushel of corn, which will take carryover to 2 billion bushel there will be some stealin` goin` on.   There was a small chance to lock in $3.70 new crop cash corn, I can`t believe that was the last hurrah.  But you look at cash new crop beans and about $8.70 was the best you could do, after the report probably peel a dollar or more off that come fall.

 

Here`s a tip, sell your grain at whatever price and buy the newly gone public Lyft stocks and don`t look back.  Smiley Happy

 

Here`s some Bad News Bears feasting on some roast beef on Market 2 Market.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtKjuj3Sj5w

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

Sw those numbers quoted on that equipment aren't deals. Having bought foreclosed houses and reo's from banks and auctions this equipment should be selling 50 cents on the dollar. I know I'm comparing houses and farm equipment but the fact is it's the same thing, an asset, and at auction it should be selling at wholesale not retail! Why any producer is willing to buy any equipment for for any more than that at auction with these commodity prices is beyond me but they do every day! The reason I say this is that the farmers shouldn't be the only one punished for low commodity prices. Equipment manufactures, dealers, and auction companies should be punished as well or they should have to sit on it. When you buy that piece of equipment, you should gain equity immediately and I mean a lot of equity. One should walk away knowing one would make 50,000 on a quick resale with a purchase as large as the combine. Seems every auction I go to there is a reserve on what I might purchase, that tells me they aren't really hurting yet. Last bid I made was on a truck over the phone. Hawker calls and tells me what current bid was and I said no! Two months later truck back on auction w same company! Begging for bids! They ain't hurtin yet! As a matter of fact looking on their website most of the equipment on that auction is on the next one. Hmm. Get em hungry and they will sell for less!
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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

With tariffs on farm commodities, I wonder what they are on farm equipment? Put export duties on used equipment where it can't be shipped over seas and lets see how quickly we get those equipment prices on down!
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

thanks deasmatt90,

Appreciate the comments....... I think most of the bidders at the auction agreed with you.  Or at least didn't have a choice but to agree with you.

But those final bids were at a 45 to 50% level of used equipment similarly compared to .  and somewhere around 25% of new products.---

appreciate your thoughts.  Unfortunately you bring up another issue that is comparible between farm equipment ( grains) and housing assets.   Newsome was commenting on this as well.  Tariffs are slowing the sale of meat,grain and therefore used farm equipment into an "as needed" zone of purchase.  If china is purchasing something at todays trade tariff rates, like hogs now, they really need it with a 60% tariff.(Darin's comment)   

I think property taxes and housing regulations, are having the same affect on housing.... even if it is decent rental property --- it better be good or real cheap.  And it will come down to the trust you have in the industry that hires that tennant in that rental property.

 

That was the mood at that sale (and frankly I miss farm sales when we celebrated the retirement of a good neighbor--now most liquidations are handled by some finance company or "farm management firm")  Farm sales are a lost event in this area.   But the mood was just that "how much confidence do we have in this industry moving forward?"  Enough to invest in another piece of equipment?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

I've about decided that most of the equipment auctioneers on the east coast are just *****, they aren't holding true auctions and are propping up prices. That truck I was talking about when he called me he said the bid was at 12.5 k I would have gone 7.5 but the bid he told me was a lie. I was watching bid caller and he called me about five items before it even started then it never showed up. sold today for 6250 on bid caller, but I wouldnt give em 50 cent for it after last auction. Pays to be honest up front. He could have got another 1.2k if he hadn't tried to be slick!
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, March 29, 2018, (Report Day)

Matt, was that a online auction or was you in the crowd?   See I think all auctioneers are kind of "tricky" (a relative term) .  I mean they`ll ask $10,000, drop to $5,000 and ask for $7,500 ..that`s kind of par for the course and you expect that, you go to a ringman and quietly say "I give $2500" and before you know it the ringman shouts out "You got $2,500!" and it goes from there  Smiley Happy

 

There is a extremely tricky outfit that auction and they`ll, say "I got $5,000...now 6...now 7 ...7 now 8???   8! we got 8 now 8 1/2???   8 and a half??"  They don`t even have the $5,000 they claimed to`ve started with but they, about auction every item twice because they have to back up and start again...but sometimes a sucker jumps in and bails them out.   If the item is something you`d give $5,000 for, if you bid the eight and a half and walk away, they might stick you with it and do their "Stan & Laurel" routine on "I thought you had the bid...no I thought yooou had the bid" meanwhile, you laugh to yourself you bought it for $8500 when if they just was on the up and up it would`ve brought $12,000 and you wouldn`t have gotten it.   Smiley Happy

 

But with this internet bidding these days, I haven`t caught auctioneers being crooked or tricky so much.   I wonder if they do pull something on the internet that the stakes would be much higher for fraud?   

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