Floor Talk March 29, 2021
At midsession, the May corn futures are 5¢ lower at $5.47 1/2. July corn futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $5.31 1/4. New crop December corn futures are 5¢ lower at $4.61 1/2.
May soybean futures are 10 1/2¢ lower at $13.90 1/2. July soybean futures are 9 1/2¢ lower at $13.82 1/2. New crop November soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $12.04 3/4.
May wheat futures are 1/4¢ lower at $6.13.
May soymeal futures are $5.80 short term lower at $398.20.
May soy oil futures are 0.70¢ higher at 53.18¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is +0.06 higher (+0.06%) at $61.03. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 52 points lower (-0.16%) at 33,020 points.
Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity, says that everyone seems to be focused on how many acres we are going to plant, with everyone expecting a record amount of corn/soy acres combined.
"Anything above 180.3 million acres would break the 2017 record and no one is that low on acres. The interesting part will be the stocks estimates. It's interesting to note, from the high to the low estimates in the corn category, there is a 407 million bushels range. This is a substantial difference in corn supplies from high to low of a 1.500 billion bushel carryout," Ward says.
Meanwhile, the soybean range is also staggering, Ward says.
"The soybean range is 385 million bushels from low to high. The lowest estimate is 100 mil/bu lower than the average and the high side is 285 million bushels more. Think about that, a carryout in the U.S. forecast by USDA to be 120 million bushels and we have trade estimates 100 mil/bu lower and 285 mil/bu higher. You can see why soybeans have been under some pressure over the past week, as traders assess the risk of a stocks report that could show significantly higher stocks."
Ward added, "Believe it or not, the cash market trades stronger in corn than it does in soybeans, but it is soybeans that continue to get all the fanfare about record tight US supplies from a stocks/use standpoint. Basis has narrowed considerably on both, but over the past month it has been the corn that has firmed the most.”