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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk March 29

Soybeans were lower while grains were modestly higher in overnight trading on expectations that the USDA will raise its bean acres at the expense of corn acres in today's prospective plantings report. Beans lost 3 cents while corn and wheat were up 1-2 cents. Analysts have said they expect soybean planting from 91 million to 92 million acres, topping last year's record 90.1 million acres. Corn area, meanwhile, would fall in a corresponding fashion. Remember, in February the USDA pegged both crops would be planted on 90 million acres. Also due up today are the quarterly stockpiles and export sales reports. In weather news, the giant storm stretching from Texas to Ohio is still as strong as it was and moving very slowly. That's causing flooding in several states. East Texas and parts of Louisiana seem to be getting the worst of it as several inches of rain have already fallen and another 2-3 inches is on the way Thursday. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-march-29.

 

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.5%.

West Texas Intermediate = down 0.2%.

Dollar = down 0.1%

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight

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13 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

It's report day.....................hold on to your ****.         HATS..............what did you think that word was?  Smiley Wink

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

Only question is whether new corn will be down 15 or new beans will be down 30  :-)

Really hard to imagine a bullish corn report...and pretty hard to imagine a bullish bean report either.

 

Either way the funds get to front run all of us with their supercomputers, an easy 30 or 40 mil for them, so hey, it is going to be a GREAT DAY!

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

There you go... the NASS boys just lost 3.4 mil acres that apparently are going to go fallow this year.

 

And, they find 70 mil more bushels of beans in storage.

 

So, the net effect of the report is a 10 mil bu decline in carryout basically. And this warrants a 30

cent price move? Fun, funny, and funky all at the same time.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

Well, I had a Nov bean sell order at 10.48 that got touched.  I guess I'll see what happens from here.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

Time...
Those acres will be found in spring wheat and cotton
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

What in the world is going on no one can make money growing wheat but all wheat acres are up ???

 Big oil must have got to someone corn too cheap ethanol going to put them out of business...I will take it thank you

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

Yes, upon digging deeper, they did massively ramp up SW and Cotton, but still reduced cropped by 1.2 mil.

 

It is just funny to me that such minute changes mean anything to price, let alone big price changes.

 

The whole report is just a statistical scatter shot that is well inside the expected numbers.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

Milo acres were up on what I saw at noon.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 29

Time don't worry ....... no real affect since it is all happening on "the Fringe".  You know that half of the corn crop only gets a half vote... And seldom a visit from usda.

 

Sooner or later the tipping point economically turns for wheat because it is still the commodity of loss. ..... but "least Loss".....

 

Corn has given the fringe a nasty nose bleed for a couple of years.... especially north in the basis devistating  $2 something areas.... loosing money on wheat beats that by $100 per acre in many cases.  Take note costs continue to rise led by property taxes and whatever miracle cure is being promoted this year.  (ever wonder how iowa corn gets to the west coast or New orleans for 50 to 60 cents basis but dakota corn can't make it 550 miles south for twice that much basis---and they don't have to go that far to find a market that costs them that much..)

 

Today I talked to a fairly large irrigator in South dakota who is taking some circles out of corn production and going two profitable directions......Forage for cattle (oat hay, forage) and Non gmo soybeans under contract...

 

Cotton in kansas will over run gin capacity in 2018............. nearly did in 2017 and growing again in acres.

 

But I agree with you ---I never expected usda to recognize changes,   they don't have to ----------- unless their afraid of loosing audience and readership.  It is all about credibility retention.

 

 

 

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