Floor Talk March 31, 2021 (Report Day)

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled up its daily limit of 25¢ at $5.64 1/2.

July corn futures settled up its daily limit of 25¢ higher at $5.47 1/2.

New crop December corn futures closed up its daily limit of 25¢ at $4.77 1/2.

As a result, corn's daily trade limits will expand to 40¢ tomorrow.

May soybean futures finished up its daily limit of 70¢ at $14.36 1/2.

July soybean futures ended up its daily limit of 70¢ higher at $14.27 1/2.

New crop November soybean futures settled up its daily limit of 70¢ at $12.56 3/4.

As a result, the soybean market's daily limits will expand, tomorrow, too $1.05.

May wheat futures closed 16¢ higher at $6.18.



May soymeal futures settled $25.00 short term higher at $423.20.


May soy oil futures closed 2.46¢ higher at 52.92¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is -1.33 lower (-2.20%) at $59.22. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points higher (+0.13%) at 33,109 points.

What say you?

Mike

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At 11am:

Corn hits limit up, soybeans near its daily limit.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

Ag markets start mixed, with USDA to release report at 11:00am CT.

Mike

[roarintiger1]

Interesting numbers based on what the experts predicted. 

This certainly means more rationing ahead.

Locked limit up for a while will do that.

End users have had plenty of time to fill their needs. 

[rickgthf]

Was the Outlook report a month ago, a head fake, 92 & 90 vs today's 91 & 87?

[clayton58]

Will those numbers get bigger?  If so when?

[sw363535]

Clayton we got our answer....... the charts had the grains against bottom side range resistance and if this carries into tomorrow we will have broken new highs in fall crops ....... wheat at least got back to the high side of the trend trading range.   Basis on new crop milo and corn will be interesting in the next week or two.......  also basis in NC wheat locally.

Lots of wheat acres will get the glyphosate hammer soon, basis jump is about the only thing that can change it and wheat probably won't go that far.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Wowsers, a double curve knuckle ball.

For frosting the local west central Iowa EPlant added 7¢ to the June/July bid on top of the 25¢ up market.

[sw363535]

Usda will find an extra 60million acres for both corn and beans..... another for grain sorghum....... and just like reaction to dollar printing.... no one will notice.  It is all about the volatility and the funds making bank.

[BA Deere]

It was kind of a bear trap  🙂

[sw363535]

That is my mental picture of funds managers who depend on their political contributions for payback.

Lets all keep in mind this market move was brought to you by one small insignificant government report, based on a computer farming game, managed by federal employees who wouldn't live in the midwest for any reason.  It is fairly insignificant in terms of real bushels available to buy at any price.  The creation of this report probably cost more than any real value delivered.

Get your marketing plans adjusted,   you have a few more days to contemplate the upper limits of this federal drug.  Wheat may have bypassed any new opportunities already by time markets open

Wheat is being hammered back into reality because it will see a harvest soon.....  Rice the leading world food crop is unaffected by this report.  

IMO there is nothing in the usda acres statement that should affect markets...... not even real acres planted will do that.  We need to maintain growth in demand.  Usda seems to stay very negative on demand for US production.

Basis will drive some acre choices...... acres of corn and beans in ks will go down to milo production that has such a strong basis it should buy cotton, corn and bean acres.  Possibly in Nebraska as well.  For sure in Texas and okla.

Oklahoma where wheat will be grazed out and destroyed just because it is still the worst price on the board.

[rickgthf]

Sw, was that just a long way of saying, "I got burned"?

 For what it's worth, I answered the survey with my honest intentions and reported exactly what I have in the bins.

If you want the reason farmers are slow to plant corn just look at the price of fertilizer, MAP is $680 vs. $490 last year; Urea, $490 vs. $360 last year. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that 50 bu. of $12.60 beans make more money even when corn is $4.60-4.70 at these fertilizer prices. 

  You want to get corn acres up, cut the price of fertilizer.