Floor Talk, March 5, 2019
At the close, the May futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.75 3/4. July futures closed 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.84 1/2.
May soybean futures finished 2 1/4¢ lower at $9.13 3/4. July soybean futures finished 2 1/4¢ lower at $9.27 3/4.
May wheat futures settled 7 1/4¢ higher at $4.62 3/4.
May soymeal futures ended 0.50 per short ton lower at $310.00. May soy oil futures closed 0.06 lower at 30.02¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.02 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points higher.
In early trading, the May futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.75. July futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.83.
May soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $9.11 3/4. July soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $9.26.
May wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.57.
May soymeal futures are 1.30 per short ton lower at $309.20. May soy oil futures are 0.06 lower at 30.02¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.16 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 5 points lower.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are buying the soybean market.
“The CFTC recent report (that is still two weeks old) showed how short funds are. I think the odds are good the CFTC Commitments of Traders reports today and again on Friday will show even larger fund shorts. The large fund short is one of the most positive fundamentals in the grain markets.” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
He added, “When funds get this short, it almost always creates a rally. It is not "if" it will happen, but when.”
Ray Grabanski, President of Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc., says that while everyone wants to talk up the bearish tone of all markets now in February
(typically not the time to be selling), here's a bullish view.
“If corn acreage doesn't expand 3 million acres, that's 528 million bushels (mb) less production.
USDA only projected 1.6 billion carryout in 2019-20, so subtracting 528 mb leaves barely 1 billion bushels. Now add summer weather uncertainty, and we now have a bull market in corn.
Add a few Chinese purchases once the US-China agreement is hashed out, and we have a full fledged bull market in corn,” Grabanski says.
Re: Floor Talk, March 5, 2019
None of us really like raising beans, but the checkbook needs a break from writing input checks Some experts are saying only a 1.5 million acre increase in corn acres, I can believe it. Not much fall gas was put on and not everyone finished fall tillage, then add all this snow and cold have to melt. Easter is late ....anything can happen, planters could roll April 11th, ....5 weeks? hmmm Easter miracle?