Floor Talk March 5

[Buckley_HF]

Is there no one else out there that believes that unless beans go to 16-18$ if not more we will run our domestic stocks to ZERO by the time August comes around? Maybe I'm missing something or maybe it just doesn't matter if we have any left if SA has a huge amount sitting on the ground down there. But it's obvious 14.85 this am for cash beans here isn't getting the job done.

[Hobbyfarmer]

It's just a hedge on their part, They can cancel just as easy as "pie".

[luisvieira]

sw,

Many of the roads in Mato Grosso are also unpaved.

The state of São Paulo has a highway network of satisfactory quality, but once the trucks get there, get stuck in the traffic.

[roarintiger1]

21 million bushels??????  Is my math correct?  We will soon have a caryover of less than 100 million bushels.

[Buckley_HF]

Roaring, ONLY 11 mil bu were old I believe.  But with USDA export pace looking to be met in mid April how long can we keep this up? Are we looking to export all of our inventory only to be required to import this summer?  Should get interesting. 

[Hobbyfarmer]

Buckley: The Chinese will just cancel a couple of cargo's from this country to keep us from running out. (sarcasm switch now in off position again)

[Buckley_HF]

Hobby. I understand the games china plays and agree with you. And I am exaggerating a little when I say we go to Zero this summer. But with the actual export pace we are on dont you agree we need either higher prices or will take CO under what USDA has deemed "pipeline minimum?" China can cancel, but their demand is real. And if they get fed up with continual logistical problems down south why not keep buying sub 15$ beans from a reliable supplier until we are out?
Edit: and they can't cancel what's already been shipped

[jec22]

One elephant in the room is soon to reappear.  2012's short corn crop has to cover 14 months of usage instead of the normal 12.  We pulled it forward last Aug/Sept. to get by and if the spring is late this year we will need to stretch it  to late Sept.

[k-289]

I guess I missed something  - a little snow and the drought is history ?

[Hobbyfarmer]

You rely 100% on what the USDA says or publishes?

Next thought is this is a known potential problem, If you need it get it sourced and locked in.

This is what we have wanted as farmers for ever.

Kind of like a buffet line...first come first choice.

If you can wait till the next refill of the selection (harvest) fine, if not get in line NOW .

(100 million bushels is still a big pile of beans). That equates to 111,111  

   900 bu semi loads.