Logistics

[Palouser]

Take 55 MMT and divide by 25,000 and 50,000 T loads for Panamax and S Panamax bulk carriers. Figure out minimum and maximum number of cargoes each year landing in China. Then how many on average per day must land/unload. Consider the crushers and hog herds are mainly on the coasts of China. 

They have a conveyer belt of product to manage as imports. They have logistical restrictions to consider. Imports must be managed for capacity by infrastructure. They can't just stop and start up at will. They do have reserves to bridge gaps or tamp down prices but that has to be replaced as well. It's a machine that has to be fed like a power plant. Any antici[ated delays must be analysed and planned for.

[ECIN]

Hey Hobby , lol 111,111 = 900 bu. loads huh ?  Our Bunge plant can crush 200,000 bu a day = 222 loads @ 900

From today till Sept. 1 thats 178 days times 222 loads = 39,516 trucks subtract that from your 111,111 and that comes out to 71,595 -- thats for the rest  of the country to fight over , then there is a bigger Bunge plant at Decatur IN . So if you would subtract another 39,516 that would only leave 31,636  truck loads , that big pile can get pretty little , pretty quick ,  lol

[Hobbyfarmer]

ECIN: Yep tell them to get "in line"

Only thing wrong with your picture is we have more than 100 million now and so will not need as many of those trucks as you posted.

There are two plants in Des Moines, one big one at Council Bluffs, Ia and even a small one here in Creston, Iowa. More here but everybody gets the idea.

Still if you want to put product out the door this summer either get it now or plan on paying through the nose to get it imported.

I just for the life of me can't think of a better scenario than some big company selling something they can't source. Might finally be that "HELLO" moment.

[sw363535]

What would be the freight from where that truck in the picture is to Creston,  Iowa.

That's a nightmare----------------- might be just as easy to move the plant to deleware.

[rayjenkins]

When soybean supplies get tight, it is typcially the big meal users that "drive the show"

If you want the most money for your beans, go talk to those big meal users and tell them you have product they can get converted into bean meal..

there have been instances in the past where the only way the processor would sell meal is to have the meal buyer locate and supply the beans

[ECIN]

sw you bring up a very good point ! We have talked about importing corn to this country , most I would say did not move very far from there as in the S.E. for hogs and chickens --- BUT where are 90 percent of the bean crushing plants ? They would have to float  them up old muddy then rail them , I know these higher prices have hurt the stock guys but just wait till somebody has to pick up the freight too !

[k-289]

Probably why you will continue to see the livestock shift back to a close proximity of the feed stuffs  - helped with a project of reloading coal cars with corn products with one of the major  R R's and after several attempts the brainstorm was mothballed  ---

[rayjenkins]

we run several shuttle trains between Iowa/Nebraska to north Texas with wet feed

open topped coal cars fitted with roll tarps

been doing it for almost 15 years..

[k-289]

  U P  or  BNSF  -  the later was the one that pulled the pin on it in Havlock Ne ---

[rayjenkins]

BN