Floor Talk March 5

[marketeye]

At 3pm:

Pre-USDA Weekly Export Sales estimates, for tomorrow's report:

Estimates Actuals, units in thousand metric tons

                                  Feb. 27                          Feb. 20                  Feb. 13

WHEAT                     250-750                           365.1                    424.5

CORN                     600-1,000                          840.8                    691.4

SOYBEANS            800-1,300                         327.7                       86.3

SOYMEAL               120-375                           115.9                       227.5

SOYOIL                        0-50                               1.62                        11.7

At the close:

The May corn futures contract closed 2 1/2 cents lower at $4.82. The May soybean futures contract closed 2 1/2 cents lower at $14.20. May wheat futures finished 1 cent lower at $6.42 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract closed $0.10 per short ton lower at $449.60. The May soyoil futures closed $0.31 lower at $43.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.77 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The May corn futures contract is trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $4.82. The May soybean futures contract is 13 1/2 cents lower at $14.09. May wheat futures are 1 cent lower at $6.42 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $5.90 per short ton lower at $443.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.24 lower at $43.47.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.16 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points lower.

Mike

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At 9:50am:

Up to this point in the corn marketing year, the exports and outstanding sales are double what they were a year ago, according to this chart from the U.S. Grains Council. Notice how big of a customer Mexico has become, taking the top spot away from Japan.

Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures contract is trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $4.80. The May soybean futures contract is 9 cents lower at $14.14. May wheat futures are 6 cents lower at $6.37 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $2.30 per short ton lower at $447.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.32 lower at $42.39.
In the outside markets, the ICE Brent crude oil is $0.80 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.

Mike

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At 8am:

USDA announces Wednesday that China canceled a previous order of 245,000 tons of U.S. soybeans scheduled for 2013-14 delivery.

Mike

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At 7am:

Two questions:

1. What percentage of your old and new crops have you sold? I'm seeing some analysts suggesting farmers get 60% sold on old-crop corn, with this price rally.

2. Have you seen the extended weather forecast showing cooler weather at the end of March? Are we headed for a late planting season?

Oh and wait, one of my 24-month old boys wants to ask a question:   vvvvvvvvvvvhgknlmp,[''[[[[[=bbbbbbbrf4dxxdthjnk;/];]?

Mike

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At 5:15am:

Overnight, it was announced that China plans to continue with its stockpile system for corn, canola seeds, and sugar. Kevin Roepke, Your World In Agriculture contributor, located in Beijing, shared his thoughts on the announcement Wednesday.

"It’s the reserves program.  China disbanded the reserves program for cotton and soybeans because it was propping up domestic prices and allowing cheap imports to come in."

Mike

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At 5:00am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans mixed, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.

ICE Brent Crude Oil=$0.56 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher, Europe stocks lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[giolucas]

Now those are early calls.

[marketeye]

giolucas,

I agree. I'm glad that you were up to catch them. The neighborhood's paperboy has a muffler off of his car, apparently. That woke me up. 🙂

Mike

[giolucas]

haha.  I think I am part vampire since I get up around 4:00 ish.  That is what happens when you get old, I guess.

[Shaggy98]

Come on guys, we all know that is the best part of the day especially during the warmer months.

[roarintiger1]

Mike, In relating to your two questions, Have these market analysts that are suggesting that farmers sell corn now, have an idea on how the winter has gone and seen those extended weather forecasts?   It appears not.    

[farmer46]

1. No new crop sold, but all old crop gone.  Needed money and needed to have income in last year.  I am still 8 cents ahead on that corn sale. 

2.  2 or 3 warm rains and spring will come nicely. 

3. I want to go to Grandma's and play with Grandpa. Now.

[ECIN]

1.   Maybe 15 %  sold on old - No New ---  I was going to sell some this morning BUT Bunge is back to it's old tricks - corn go's up - Basis go's down , What I call there profit margins - They keep there's - mine go down -

2. Pretty good story the other night with Brain Williams - Our good friend Jim Cantorie was in , Jim had maps of the Great Lakes - with something like 90.2 precent iced over - Think the record is 95 precent , Records on this only go back to 1973 - in this time frame there has only been 2 times of this kind of Ice on the Lakes and both had a cooler spring with them .

Map 2 was of the area it would oR could effect , Jim had all of Wisconsin , parts of MN , Northern IL , IN parts of Ohio and all of MI that COULD be below temps to the end of April .

Weather Under Ground has My part of IN - running below temps threw mid April - But that was as far as there forecast went .

Also read that there is a HOT spot in the pond of the left coast that is moving East and would affect the southern states this summer= dry , and cool for the Ohio valley this summer .

Just one thing - we all know that this can change in a blink of a eye , BUT fellers - all that ice and snow UP nort, will take some time to thaw and March is slowly slipping away . My guess is that 89 will be plowing snow in May instead of plowing dirt

3. Sure Junior, It's OK to have a bag of chips and a Dew , just on forget to shut off the TV when you take your nap

[farmerguy89]

Maple syrup is not flowing at all not a drop here. Last year it was full bore.

Delayed planting on the forecast

[marketeye]

Did you see this? The annual U.S. Grains Council Corn Harvest Quality Report was recently released. What does this report tell you as a farmer? Keep in mind, this report was compiled at harvest. But, the corn is graded again, as it enters the international markets, and that compiled report will be out this month. Here is a look at the highlights of the Quality Report:

The overall quality of the 2013 corn crop for many factors was similar to 2011. The 2013 corn crop is entering the marketing channel with the following characteristics:

GRADE FACTORS AND MOISTURE

High test weight of 57.9 lb/bu (74.5 kg/hl), nearly 2 lb/bu above the limit for No. 1 grade, with 93.3% of the samples above the No. 2 grade minimum. While test weight is slightly lower than the previous two years, the results still indicate well fi lled kernels.
Low levels of BCFM (0.9%) similar to 2012 and 2011, well below the grade limit for No. 1 corn.
Low total damage (0.9% compared to 0.8% in 2012 and 1.1% in 2011) with no reported heat damage (same as in 2012 and 2011).
Elevator sample moisture average of 17.3%, which is higher than in 2012 and 2011. In 2013, 75% of the samples were above 15% moisture. This will require more drying or aeration at the elevators than in 2012 and 2011. The wide range in moisture contents will require careful segregation.
CHEMICAL COMPOSITION

Average protein content of 8.7% dry basis, the same as recorded in 2011, yet lower than in 2012. The average protein is most likely a return to more normal levels.
Signifi cantly higher starch content of 73.5% dry basis compared to 2012 (73.0%), offsetting the lower protein content and signifying relatively good kernel fi lling and maturation, results benefi cial for wet millers.
Average oil content of 3.7% dry basis, about the same as in 2012 and 2011.
PHYSICAL FACTORS

Stress cracks (9%), somewhat higher than in 2012 and 2011, possibly resulting in more susceptibility to breakage compared to the previous two years but still relatively low.
Average true densities and horneous (hard) endosperm, indicating moderate hardness in 2013 which should be good for wet milling and feeding.
Even with sample averages showing moderate hardness, more than 50% of all samples have test weight above 58 lb/bu, indicating that with selection, supplies of moderate to hard endosperm corn is available for dry millers.
Whole kernels (92.5%), slightly lower than 2012 and 2011, should still enable good storability.
MYCOTOXINS

A signifi cantly lower incidence of afl atoxins detected in the 2013 corn crop compared to the 2012 corn crop. Around 99.4% of the corn samples tested below the FDA afl atoxin action level of 20 ppb.
100% of the corn samples tested below the FDA advisory levels for DON (5 ppm for hogs and other animals and 10 ppm for chicken and cattle) (same as in 2012 and 2011).

Mike