Floor Talk, March 7, 2019

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the May futures finished 7 1/2¢ lower at $3.65 1/4. July futures ended 6 3/4¢ lower at $3.74 1/4.

May soybean futures closed 1/2¢ higher at $9.02 1/2. July soybean futures closed 3/4¢ higher at $9.16.


May wheat futures settled 11 3/4¢ lower at $4.38 1/4.

 May soymeal futures ended 0.20 per short ton higher at $306.30.



May soy oil futures closed 0.11 lower at 29.67¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.40 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 212 points lower.

Mike

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At midday:

At midday, the May futures are 5 1/2¢ lower at $3.67. July futures are 5¢ lower at $3.76.

May soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $9.04. July soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $9.17 3/4.


May wheat futures are 8 1/2¢ lower at $4.41.



May soymeal futures are 1.00 per short ton higher at $307.10. 

May soy oil futures are 0.20 lower at 29.58¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.34 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 175 points lower.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the markets ignored the strong export sales.

“It’s not really clear why corn is down, so much, or wheat either. I know it is big spec selling, but I see no real fundamental except for the threat of changes to tomorrow’s WASDE Report. If tomorrow’s report leaves ending stocks higher or something, it would be bearish,” Scoville says.

Scoville added, “Corn’s feed demand category never has been strong this year and there are fears of more cuts to ethanol demand, in tomorrow’s USDA Supply/Demand Report. But, wheat demand is growing finally and the market not reacting due to weaker world values, I guess. There is more talk of China buying soybeans again. So, beans are higher,” Scoville says..

Mike

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At 9:55am:

If you missed it earlier this morning, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report strong corn, weak soybean figures.

Corn= 1.25 million metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 700,000-1.700,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 383,400 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 600,000-1,200,000 mt.

Wheat= 826,700 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-550,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 259,200 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000-250,000 mt.

Mike

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At 9:45am:

In early trading, the May futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $3.69. July futures are 3¢ lower at $3.78.

May soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $8.98. July soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $9.12 3/4.


May wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $4.45.



May soymeal futures are 0.40 per short ton lower at $305.70.

 May soy oil futures are 0.26 lower at 29.52¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.14 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 247 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are buying the soybean market.

“It feels like the market is fed up with all the talk and speculation of a trade deal and the market wants to see some action. A trade deal is still not confirmed. The market does not like the unknown, so they headed to the sidelines to wait for some news that a deal is done,”

Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, “With the funds getting into rather large short positions ahead of spring planting in the US, we could have some interesting markets the next 90 days."

Mike

[BA Deere]

Ted Seifert was saying one possibility of corn going down is traders drove it down ahead of the report hoping to buy cheaper.  Overnite will be something to watch, about 3am they`ll get a bug to buy   🙂     I do see and know a lot of physical grain is getting moved, I suppose a weather window and just can`t risk a bearish report.

[k-289]

Dow  Down  -  Grains  Up  -   spec  $$$$  moving  around  to  commodity  gig  - most  likely  -  -  -

[sw363535]

Thanks ba.

Al kruis —- come on mike. How rediculous. Al thinks the market is making an emotional decision.
(Sounds like I’m repeating the Time points again). Even Jim can repeat “ the market doesn’t care..............”

The new blocking advertisement is now covering my screen so I am being sensored by new methods for sayingThe aL Kruis quote is nonsense — the market doesn’t care what buyers expect. Market needs a real shortage of supply in order to function in a positive way.

My accounting customers are planning to take near 2m bushel of corn out of the market in 2019. The Firestone advertisement is a sign SF has a second job and plans to become SU in the near future. So that’ll take a lot of the hot air out of the market.
Love this global warming. Fragil environment we are enjoying — cattle numbers down with every new wave of weather.
There I outlasted the ad finally —- “the market doesn’t care about your opinion of AL. Or even have an opinion it probably says traders are buying grain as fast as they can to get cheap grain.

[roarintiger1]

"Traders driving the price of corn down to then buy it cheaper."    Wow.......who would've ever thought that could actually happen?   Hey, way to go Sherlock.  You have really cleared that up.   Geez

End users are happy and complacent.   Hope they enjoy it while it lasts. 

[unlgrad]

Just wonder how much of this down move is the unwinding of long corn/short bean spreads and the same with long wheat/short bean spreads.  This might be supporting beans for the moment.   It seems corn has been moving to Blair(Cargill)  with the narrow basis here.

[sw363535]

hey now I am not on a blocked screen phone..... And SF is advertising Facebook at the top....... they locked up my account for lack of use a long time ago and I ain't going back to the recipe and cute kids jungle.

 Really folks go see your grandkids......before they're hurt in an orchestrated stunt for a camera........ by brainless parents.

There is lots of grain moving as BA said ---- enough that buyers are able to buy and then get offered more every week...Sellers are capturing some carry and buyers are still getting it cheap compared to cattle prices...... ethanol plants are still making a slim margin and offering + basis.....  Buying daily and getting more because they know the fish have got to swim to them as the year goes on.  

The nice little carry keeps the fish interested so the depression comes with the check...after the fleecing....

Life is still good and the weather is probably more depressing than the markets .....unending anticipation still beats what we faced 4 years ago.  We know where the bottom is and even the tall guys in the water can still enjoy the bath their taking. 

Keep doing your best to keep those hate merchants from fogging up your brain  and your phone...  There are enough fake bank loan calls coming in on cell phones from those fools in California to fog up your phone face without dualing media doing it.

Lets enjoy a little warm up sometime in the next three weeks.  Highs in the 30's by mid april if we are lucky

🙂