Floor Talk March 7

[Buckley_HF]

CX and gio, you guys like the action in may corn today holding the 6.80 area and rebounding into the close? I hope yesterday and early today was a kinda sell the rumor buy the fact type trade and tomorrow we get a good reaction from the report. However My guess is we will see an increased CO for corn but beans SHOULD be bullish based on crush and export pace. Will be a fun day no doubt

[c-x-1]

Buckley,

I believe underlyers and technicals are as strong if not a little stronger for Corn...3 higher lows on daily prompt. i'm sure plenty of farmers are sweating new crop cont. to show weakness (i would be).....not sure how it can still be selling like this.

[Buckley_HF]

Cx, with myself being one of those farmers I can tell you that your correct in guys sweating this new crop selloff. From what I've read and heard only about 5-10% of new production has been marketed up to this point. One thing I can tell you is this selloff will probably only reinforce the decision to buy very good revenue protection insurance with the deadline approaching. Farmers have been burned forward contracting to much at low prices the last few years but maybe with good weather this year will be different and forward selling the past few moths will have been correct. I just think its a touch early to call the drought dead, which I'm not in any way saying you are. Just giving you a farmers perspective.

[c-x-1]

sorry, Mike,

just saw your question--was on page 2. I use spreads to gauge relative strength. when you have a front/back or new/old spread 40-50 cents stronger than May contract relative to Dec prices, simply adds underlying overall bullishness for me.

ie. best way to say it is spread is bullishly divergent. look @ charts-May, then May/Nov.

[c-x-1]

yes Buckley,

don't think anyone can declare drought over with....Dec. has NO risk premium @ these levels, so if i was long in this trade as 90%+ farmers are, i would hang in there, not panic (the end users would LOVE these prices) and have a good sweat towel handy.

[roarintiger1]

USDA has declared the drought over with their expected 163 corn yield.........it's getting tiring waiting on the risk premium.

[Shaggy98]

Do you think the USDA is trying to manipulate the market into buying more soybean acres?

[c-x-1]

yes & lowering the insurance coverage perhaps, Shaggy...when are those prices set?

just keep the electrolytes flowing and stay hydrated roarin!

[Shaggy98]

Spring insurance prices are already set.

[sw363535]

Yes Yes yes mike,

New crop bids are saying More bean acres.