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03-07-2013 05:09 AM - edited 03-07-2013 02:30 PM
At the close:
The May futures corn contract closed 2 cents higher at $6.91. The May soybean futures contract closed 7 cents higher at $14.73. May wheat futures settled 11 cents higher at $6.95 per bushel. The May soyoil futures contract settled $0.35 higher at $50.61. The May soymeal futures closed $0.80 per short ton higher at $436.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points higher.
What a rollercoaster ride today, regarding the markets. Now, beans and wheat are higher and corn is in negative territory.
Corn and soybeans trade lower, and wheat a bit higher.
At the open:
The Mayfutures corn contract opened 2 cents higher at $6.91. The May soybean futures contract opened 4 cents higher at $14.70. May wheat futures opened 5 cents higher at $6.89 per bushel. The May soyoil futures contract opened $0.06 higher at $50.32. The May soymeal futures are trading $1.80 per short ton higher at $437.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.91 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 44 points higher.
Here's how Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader sees the market Thursday:
"Trading in the grain markets basically unchanged overnight, as wheat and corn rebounded slightly from yesterday’s sell off and beans also showing a modest gain. For wheat and corn, there is plenty of bearish news being released this morning, especially on Bloomberg.com. In one report, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization predicted that the global wheat harvest for this year would rise by 4.3 percent. The organization upped their world output estimates to 690 million metric tons from 661.8 mmt. That would make the harvest the second biggest in history, next to 2011. China, Pakistan and India could have bumper crops but production in the U.S. could be off by as much as 6 percent. The same report called for robust corn production coming from Brazil with Argentina set to report a record crop, if ample rainfalls continue. Commodities, as a whole, remained steady overnight, after taking a beating for the last week. In world economic news, the ECB holds their meeting today to review policy and decide on a course to solve the European debt crisis. Mario Draghi is set to hold a press conference later today. As the U.S. stock market continues to make record highs, Europe remains a concern as well as the economic issues in China. James Chanos discusses the real estate boom in China and the fears of a massive meltdown in that country. He talks about the “ghost cities” in China and that many real estate investors there don’t really get the gravity of the situation," he says.
USDA Weekly Export Sales shows strong soybean, wheat sales and bearish corn numbers:
Corn= 156,600 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 500-700,000 metric tons (mt).
Soybeans= 1.382 million mt vs. the trade's expectations of 700,000-1,100,000 mt.
Wheat= 828,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of at 300 to 600,000 mt.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher. These calls are subject to change, following the release of the USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report at 7:30am CT.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.37 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, with eyes on the Central Bank's meeting in Europe. The question will be whether the CB announces more support for monetary easing. Plus, the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims data will be released this morning.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed-to-higher and Europe's stocks were higher.
More in a minute,
03-07-2013 05:21 AM - edited 03-07-2013 05:42 AM
Note: A South Korea feed association has rejected a 55,000 ton corn purchase due to expected lower prices in the future, according to the Dow Jones Newswire Thursday. Separately, as I read this story, I wonder if we now begin to see more of this cancellation of orders activity, as folks try to guess this uncertain market. The reasons given for lower corn prices include the expectation that the March 28 Planting Intentions Report is going to show large U.S. corn plantings and increased wheat availability from India.
So, is that it? Corn is going down? What do you think?
03-07-2013 05:51 AM
Just my 2¢, but on the radio earlier a guy was talking about a "16,000 Dow" so maybe the Whiteshoe Boys are bailing on grains for the time being in favor of equities. It may take a drought to regain their interest.
Palladium has been on a tear lately http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PL South African mine strikes, car buying boom coming from the wealth effect of 401Ks going up?
03-07-2013 05:52 AM
When I first read your message, I thought it meant that South Korea was rejecting a shipment of corn....however, it appears they were rejecting the prices of a tender (auction)......that is a fairly common practice, especially as prices start to change during the tender period itself....
it does make a person wonder if there may be similarities between the logistics of moving Indian wheat out of the country, and beans out of Brazil....ie; if the supply chain gets congested, the easiest solution is to "keep back to mama" in the US and order a quick ship cargo or two....
with the huge old/new crop inverses, these importers are going to be aggressive in managing their deck and avoid having too much old crop corn in the supply chain----to the point they may sell out or cancel an old crop purchase and replace with new crop...
will be interesting to see it all play out next 6 months
03-07-2013 07:20 AM
The logistics scare tend to increase in Brazil. Port workers announced that a strike is set to March 19th and might last 24 hours without negotiation. The last time, the strike was cancelled in February.
03-07-2013 07:46 AM - edited 03-07-2013 07:47 AM
Yet another "Wow" on the soybean numbers. Not sure how USDA can keep the carryover number over 100 million in the coming reports. Wait, maybe they will find a better yield numbers from last year and increase the beginning supply. There is no way on earth they can move early 2013 havested beans forward.