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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 8

I'm with sw on the poor looking corn , looks like root worm had a field day or something ,They should have used the super dooper triple dipple on  that field - lol

 

BTW --- what is the 107qq ? I know the ha but what does that figure to bpa here ?  looks like about 50  bpa to me

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 8

 

cx, hope you're right! i bettin' heavy, but getting hard to hold on. We'll see who wants 'em(soys) by july/aug. by that time brazil will be pretty low on exportable supplies, too. we'll see who blinks first.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 8

It could be a wild ride if neither the US or Brazil knows when to stop selling.

 

How Ironic would it be if the two countries had to buy back undelivered sales to meet basic needs.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 8

The demand for US beans in July/August may be real.....but not necessarily because Brazil is "running low on beans"....with a large sugar crop on the way, and the strong possibility of a very large corn crop, it may be the ongoing demand for port capacity that makes it difficult to get beans out of the country as quickly as liked......I have read where Brazil/Arg beans could be competing strongly with US beans, even during our 2014 harvest and beyond.....

 

They simply cannot move product out of their country as fast as the buyers would like given the current conditions where both north and south america had subpar crops the previous year......right the s/d ship a bit and take the market out of a steep inverse, and you take some of that pressure on port capacity away and spread it out a bit more evenly during the entire year...

 

 

for me, it's easier to think you can get the next 50-75 cents easier by being hedged and expecting a lot of basis improvement as supplies dwindle than just being flat priced long......but a lot of things are possible...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 8

Less soybean acres?    Good weather for planting corn here in the US might also spark a soybean rally.....

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 8

idalivered,

all i know (not really) is I've never seen a Corn or Bean board this steeply inverted this early in the mktg. yr.

 

you ask the old timers....but I know this phenomenon is virtually unprecedented.

 

Corn eg. you have Mar/May = +22, May/Jul = +23.....users need it yesterday! 

 

Beans - Mar/May = +37, May/Jul = +24

 

for comparison, i only have '96 Corn - can't pull up '73 spreads for some reason

 

Mar/May = +6.....May/Jul = +8

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