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Tony_Dreibus
Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

USDA SAYS

 

U.S. Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks 2015/16

 

USDA March 2015/16 ending stocks estimates

Average of trade estimates

USDA Feb. 2015/16 end- ing stocks estimates

Wheat

 966

0.975

0.966

Corn

 1.83

1.854

1.837

Soybeans

460

0.452

0.450

World Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks 2015/16

USDA World Production

 

USDA March 2015/16 ending stocks estimates

Average of trade estimates

USDA Feb. 2015/16 end- ing stocks estimates

Wheat

 237.6

238.77

238.87

Corn

 207

209.08

208.81

Soybeans

 78.9

80.89

80.42

 

March 2014/15 estimate

Feb. 2014/15 estimate

March 2015/16 estimate

Feb. 2015/16 estimate

China corn

 

215.65

 

224.58

Argentina corn

 

27.00

 27.23

27.00

Brazil corn

 

85.00

 84.50

84.00

Argentina soybeans

 

61.40

 58.5

58.50

Brazil soybeans

 

96.20

 100.13

100.00

 

 

TRADE RESPONSE:

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading owner, says that the report does confirm some El Nino related wheat production issues in India and Australia.
“With no real deviations from trade expectations in today’s report, the large speculative short positions across the grain markets as reported by the CFTC may not find much support to spur future profits on the downside, and normal Springtime concerns could well stimulate some short covering or even outright buying before the all-important March 31 planted acreage intentions.”


--Nothing earthshaking numbers. But, the fact that corn ending stocks were left nearly unchanged, soybeans ending stoks build slightly, wheat left alone. So, the markets are moving up, following the numbers.

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that there are no real big surprises on this report. "No change in South America production,slightly supportive, no new bearish news ,eyes now on spring weather and acres numbers."

--Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy senior market analyst agrees that there are no  surprising numbers for a March WASDE. “The World Board “mailed it in”.  Nothing of note in either U.S. demand or S.A. production as the majority of these categories were left unchanged.  The biggest question that came out of the report was how patient the record short positioning will stay with unchanged numbers.  Obviously, the bears needed some additional ammo but none was forthcoming this month.  Critical pieces of information, in the form of the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings, will be released at the end of the month.  Until then, traders and producers will be left with a barrage of weather predictions for both planting and critical growth months.”

 

--Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co., says he views the report as in-line to somewhat supportive, but the real question is can we do something technically to spook the investors out of their LARGE short positions. The reports were NOT bullish, but maybe they weren’t as bearish as expectations as all 3 World Ending Stocks declined.

 

Corn
·         No changes to the US, ending stocks remain 1.837 billion bushels, slightly positive as the trade was looking for a higher number closer to 1.865 billion bushels.
·         World Ending Stocks of corn declined by 1.8 MMT (70.8 milllion bushels). South African production fell another 500,000 MT and usage was increased by 1.3 MMT, this was also supportive in our view.
Soybeans
·         The US soybean balance sheet increased 10 million bushels to 460 million bushels, right on with the trade estimate. The crush was reduced by 10 million bushels and every other category was left unchanged.
·         World Ending Stocks of soybeand declined by 1.5 MMT, which was LOWER than the trade expectation. Production showed a small reduction in soybeans, but usage was increased again in both exports and world crush. Good demand for soybeans in the world continues to widdle away at record production and stocks.
Wheat
·         No changes were made to the US balance sheet, stocks were left unchanged at 966 million bushels
·         World Ending Stocks actually FELL by 1.2 MMT to 237.6 MMT
Australian production fell 1.5 MMT
EU production increased by 0.5 MMT
IN production fell 2.4 MMT
To offset some of these production declines, usage was lowered by 2 MMT, but the overall production was down more than the usage declines for a slightly lower world carryout of wheat

 

 

Mike

-----

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled 1 cents lower at $3.59 1/2. May soybean futures ended 1 1/4 cents higher at $8.85 3/4. 
May wheat futures closed 3 cents higher at $4.68 1/4. May soymeal futures finished $1.50 per short ton lower at $271.30. May soyoil futures ended $0.60 higher at $31.74.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.59 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 higher.

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $3.59. May soybean futures are 3 cents lower at $8.81. 
May wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $4.64. May soymeal futures are $2.60 per short ton lower at $270.20. May soyoil futures are trading $0.46 higher at $31.60.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.45 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 54 higher.

 

Mike

---------

At 9:45am:

The Energy Information Agency reports record-high ethanol stocks Wednesday. In its weekly report, EIA stated that stocks increased by 683,000 barrels to 23.31 million barrels last week, moving even higher than the record established in February.

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

At the open, the May corn futures are trading 1 cent lower at $3.59. May soybean futures are 3/4 of a cent higher at $8.85. 
May wheat futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $4.63. May soymeal futures are $0.40 per short ton lower at $272.40. May soyoil futures are trading $0.21 higher at $31.35.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.62 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 60 higher.

 

Mike

----------

Good morning. 

 

Corn, beans and wheat were all little changed overnight as investor await today's WASDE report. The USDA will likely lower its outlook for inventories of all three commodities amid slack demand. 

  

At 6:25 am:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 2% higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 1.7% higher. 

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly higher in pre-market trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks rebound on higher oil prices.

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2 Replies
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

No movement.  

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

exlax ???

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