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Tony_Dreibus
Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk March 9

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures finished 3¢ lower at $3.90. July futures finished 2 1/2¢ lower at $3.98. May soybean futures closed 24 3/4¢ lower at $10.39 1/4.  July soybean futures closed 24 3/4¢ lower at $10.48. May wheat futures ended 10¢ lower at $4.89 1/4. May soy meal futures closed $9.80 per short ton lower at $373.60. January soy oil futures finished 0.25 lower at 31.59¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.95 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 385 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $3.90. July futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $3.97. May soybean futures are 17 1/2¢ lower at $10.46.  July soybean futures are 17 1/4¢ lower at $10.55. May wheat futures are 11¢ lower at $4.88. May soy meal futures are $4.60 per short ton lower at $378.80. January soy oil futures are 0.34 lower at 31.50¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.66 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 315 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says that a few factors are pushing the markets down.
“A couple of things for the beans.  First, there is rain in the forecast for Argentina and it has been there for a few days now, so investors are starting to believe it.  The rains are supposed to arrive on maybe Monday, but investors want out just in case,” Scoville says. 
Investors are also looking at the tariffs and think it might push China to buy even less, Scoville says. 
“And, let’s face it, it’s been a big run with almost no correction and one is due now. So, some of the selling is related to ideas that maybe a correction is getting started,” Scoville says.

 

Mike

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At 9:10am:

In early trading, the May corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.91. July futures are 2¢ lower at $3.98. May soybean futures are 16 1/2¢ lower at $10.47.  July soybean futures are 16 1/4¢ lower at $10.56. May wheat futures are 8 3/4¢ lower at $4.90. May soy meal futures are $3.50 per short ton lower at $379.80. January soy oil futures are 0.32 lower at 31.52¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.98 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 168 points higher.

 

Mike

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Soybeans and wheat dropped overnight after the USDA yesterday raised its ending stockpiles projections for both crops. The USDA said soybean inventories would come in at 555 million bushels, topping estimates and last month's forecast of 530 million. It also raised its wheat carryout forecast to 1.034 billion bushels from 1.009 billion. Beans lost about 11 cents, wheat was down 4-6 cents and corn was little changed overnight. It was a very newsy Thursday after the president signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum, a move he says protects US national security. The ag world wasn't happy as many fear countries will retaliate by imposing levies on US crops. Export sales, however, were strong as sales of all three major crops increased month-to-month, according to the USDA. In weather news, the rain isn't stopping in the mid-south, which likely will make flooding worse this weekend. See all the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-march-9.

 

Brent Crude Oil = up 0.9%.

West Texas Intermediate = up  0.7%.

Dollar = up 0.1%

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.

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9 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9

Went to a large customer appreciation supper last night from the e plant.

 

I delivered corn there yesterday morning, they broke ground there for another big.bin and a 30,000 bu per hr pit. 2,000,000 bu bin, will be the third one in the world.


Steve Johnson from ISU says we've hit the top in beans couple days ago. Get get em sold. Especially if in commercial storage.

 

His numbers are more acres of beans this year than corn. Then there is that 555 carry over #.

Corn simular scenario, sell the dickens out of this rally, someone's gonna be holding the bag with 2.1 billion bu in it , you wantta be the one?


He promoted hta July and be prepared to roll to September.

 

He, Elwin Taylor, another guy I don't know, and now Ray Jenkins all work for ISU. Elwin Taylor says we in Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska are going to raise corn and have another blow your doors off good year raising corn. The 1,2,3 production corn states. The east and south eastern states are gonna be too wet early and switch even more to beans than planned even at this time. Only Kansas, and south will enjoy no rain no how till too late.

 

Very good presenter of his ideas. Promoted your own bins and delivering to end users and not coops. Said to ignor Sue .Martin and $5 corn.

 

Talked about the massive supplies, did not mention that both massive supplies are now only 45 ish days of useage not months and months like the old days on his charts. I do agree with him don't play the drought hold the grain in commercial storage at a nickel a month charges.

 

His main message was don't get too bullish too long...

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9

This would be a great day for food suppliers to lower food prices.  Look at the $$ they are saving today.

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erikjohnson61y
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9

Have to agree.  I've heard Steve in years' past, and he's usually closer to the end result than other prognosticators.  He's also right about bins and delivering to end users - I've taken that advice from him, and it took a few years to be able to afford to wait to market last years crop, but now I can hold 80% of my expected crop in the bins. Just finished selling for this year - last years' corn to be delivered in July and August to an ethanol plant. Weighted average price I'll receive is $3.65, versus a harvest average of $2.85 at the local elevator last fall. It'll cost me about 10 cents more in fuel and tires to haul to the ethanol plant, but that's still 70 cents a bushel more (or over $100/acre more!)  For my operation that's huge.  Plus, with only 20% of the crop to deliver to the plant at harvest time, there's less time waiting in the long lines to unload (more time to keep my old combine repaired and running). The 20% new crop for this year is also hedged to arrive in November for about $3,72.  If there's an unexpected rally this summer and prices blow past this, I can start to sell my insurance protected bushels for next summer delivery.  But at least I know what my cash flow is going to be this year, and thanks to this little rally it's better than last year.  

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9

I know these advisers just say "Oh we told our clients to buy a call a month ago" if they get caught with their pants down in a drought or some other black swan...they are awesome!   But it`s almost as irresponsible to call for a 5th above trend crop as it is to call for a 2012 like drought, here in early March.   "Here" we could`ve locked in $3.60 new corn and $9.70 new beans...well the seed hasn`t been delivered yet, those prices would be very profitable with above trend yields, but below trend yields (of how much?) would they still be? 

 

A artificial put is perhaps the way to play the `18 crop, I just don`t see `18 continue to drive in the same wagon ruts as `17 did.  Though we`ve flipped the coin "heads" many times in a row now, I guess that`s not to say we can`t go for heads 100 times in a row for a spell too.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9

Artificial put ?

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9

A `artificial put` is combining a "call" with a sale.  I reads books, I gets smaht   Smiley Happy

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9

Remember BA it is USDA's coin....... it could be heads 99% of the time.... 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk March 9

Hey SW, I think there`s so damned much supply out there that USDA hasn`t had to rig the roulette wheel for some time now to keep the cheap food Ponzi scheme going....we are trained to do it to ourselves.  

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