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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk May 1

At the close, the July corn futures settled 3 1/4 cents lower at $3.63 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 3 1/4 cents lower at $3.80 1/4 per bushel.
July soybean futures ended 11 1/4 cents lower at $9.64 3/4. Nov. soybean futures closed 11 1/2 cents lower at $9.40 3/4.

July wheat futures finished unchanged at $4.74.

July soymeal futures closed $4.20 per short ton lower at $311.90. July soyoil futures finished $0.07 lower at $31.58. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $0.49 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 168 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.61 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 5 cents lower at $3.78 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 10 cents lower at $9.66. Nov. soybean futures are trading 9 1/2 cents lower at $9.42.

July wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $4.69.

July soymeal futures are trading $4.90 per short ton lower at $311.20. July soyoil futures are $0.07 higher at $31.72. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $0.86 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 88 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group senior market analyst, says it is a macro day today.
The number of macro factors impacting the markets include a Michigan economic survey, a Fed Reserve governor’s speech, the PMI and ISM among others.
“With these announcements, the dollar rallied and the grains and oilseeds and softs moved lower.  Nothing much was going on, until then.  One survey noted that inflation could move to 2.8% or something and that might be the trigger for the Fed Reserve to raise interest rates.  The markets had not been doing anything, until then, and the reaction was pretty sharp,” Scoville says. 
Trends are turning down for the short term, in corn wheat and beans too, he says.
“So, there will be added selling.  Farmers out in the fields and going as fast as they can.  Planting starting in eastern Canada up near Montreal this morning too.  The grain there feeds the dairy in New York and New England as well as local producers,” Scoville says.

Mike

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At the open:

At the opem, the July corn futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $3.65 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 1 cent lower at $3.82 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 5 cents lower at $9.71. Nov. soybean futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $9.48.

July wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $4.74.

July soymeal futures are trading $1.20 per short ton lower at $314.90. July soyoil futures are $0.16 lower at $31.49. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.64 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 107 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:

Big weekend ahead. Some in the trade see Monday's U.S. Corn planting at 45% complete. What do you think? Is that too aggressive?

 

Mike

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At 7:00am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.45 lower.
Dollar =Lower. 
Wall Street = Seen higher, with a big data day ahead.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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8 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

What about the avian influenza (bird flu) and U.S. corn supplies?

 

With 20 million birds affected, it is now the worst case of bird flu since 1924. One grain analyst has pushed the pencil on this. With roughly 25% of Iowa's layers affected and 1/3 of Minnesota's turkeys, the level of corn consumption is dropping bit by bit each day. He says that if the bird flu cases were to stop today, between 125-150 million bushels of corn would not get consumed. No big deal, you might say. But, this comes at a time when we already have corn ending stocks projections of nearly 2.0 billion bushels, and states like Minnesota that are seeing rapid corn planting. In fact, one analyst sees an additional 2-3 million corn acres added to the June USDA Planting estimate.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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Re: Floor Talk May 1

Mike, you are just a ray of sunshine! Any more "news" from these brilliant sources you would like to share with us today?
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vandenplas
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Permabull?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

bkadds,

 

Sorry. If it makes you feel any better, I did leave out a bunch of other bearish items. Hey, it's going to rain at the end of this week into next week. So, planting will be haulted. And, we won't make the 50% planted by May 8th scenario. That should move this market in your favorite direction, right?

 

🙂

 

Mike

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westernia80
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

With current new crop prices, what incentive do traders think we have to plant more corn other than we like to and it's working good.  Those are not reasons for me to plant more.

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Re: Floor Talk May 1

Vandenplas--I am not a permabull if you were addressing me. However, I do have a hard time when people act as though the crop is already made. On the other hand, if farmers are ignorant enough to plant a couple million more corn acres just because they are set up and conditions are good then they deserve lower prices. Two very true statements: high prices cure high prices and farmers will produce themselves into the poorhouse.
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Re: Floor Talk May 1

Really like the choice is mine to have the market completely plummet on information that was pure speculation from the beginning. Remember early spring mild winter all 100% wrong and yet the market stuck out the trend. Why I wonder ignorant traders? Maybe, or how about the fact all my cash rents went up again seed corn price up 10% again fertilizer and chemical up 5-10% oh but fuels down so we get one. What happened when the dollar was almost useless and oil was 150$ a barrel I'll tell ya 3.50 corn 4.50 wheat and 9$ beans it's a goddamn joke. However these are the outside markets keeping grains down now give me a break. Go back to using the weather exscuse at least it's a justified guess.?.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Really turns your head,,, those "Macro Factors"

 

What was it, lets see........ A Michigan economic survey...... A Fed Reserve governor's speech  ...... PMI   and   ISM

 

 


“With these announcements, the dollar rallied and the grains and oilseeds and softs moved lower. "

 

 

 Will there ever be another day like this one?    The whole world must have held it's breath....

 

 

🙂

 

 

 

 

 

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