cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk May 1

At the close:

The July corn futures settle 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.29. The July soybean contract ended 2 cents lower $15.03 1/2. The July wheat futures closed 11 1/2 cents lower at $6.43. The July soymeal futures finished $1.30 per short ton lower at $434.20 and July soyoil futures finished down $0.14 at $54.91. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.39 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 106 points.

 

One analyst says it's time to look ahead on this crop-weather market. He says, "Next Monday, the weather show begins when we get our first corn crop condition report. Markets will aggressively trade off the condition report as this determines eventual yields and production. Beans came in at 12% planted versus 5% last year. The market psychology remains the same. Take profits on daily  rallies and  buy the breaks. Traders fear next Thursday's May 10 USDA crop report will cut ending stocks measurably  keeping breaks to a minimum."

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 8 1/2 cents lower at $6.25 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 8 1/4 cents lower $14.97 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 10 3/4 cents lower at $6.43 3/4. The July soymeal futures are trading $2.10 per short ton lower at $433.40 and July soyoil futures trade down $0.20 at $54.85. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.24 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 115 points.

 

Here is the perspective of one floor trader on this first day of May. He says, "Delta elevators are taking in their first loads of wheat harvest today. This is three weeks early. Weather looks benign in the US. Meanwhile, Europe Germany/Poland Hungary and parts of Russia could use more rain.
Bean deliveries were larger than expected and were not stopped yesterday. So, they recirculated today giving the market some pause. But, also it is the time of year for indexes to roll old crop to new. That should increase in intensity as we get to 1st week in June, which is official roll date for Goldman index replicators and others. Also, new-crop balance sheets from USDA will debut next Thursday and we expect a record tight new crop. USDA has never printed a new crop balance on start of year at less than 160 million bushels. But, this will focus trade on new crop.
Also. the high flying meal and bean market may be subject to its first of  three days of month rebalance which will bring in some index selling on the close.
Warm weather is good for early corn start. It's also good for germination. Early wheat harvest will help alleviate old crop tightness.
Chinese are due to announce releasing up to 3 mmt of beans from domestic gov’t stockpiles in May… import licenses in corn have been used for now.
Thursday morning will have large sales to report. But, that report will simply restate what we already no. I am selling old crop beans on rallies, covering on breaks at this point. Any hint of a weather problem and I am paying up for new crop..etc..."

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

The July corn futures trade 4 3/4 cents lower at $6.29 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 7 1/2 cents lower $14.98. The July wheat futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.49 1/4. The July soymeal futures opened $1.50 per short ton lower at $434.00 and July soyoil futures trade down $0.27 at $54.78. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.11 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 73 points.

 

Mike

--------------

At 9am:

 

--USDA announces Tuesday that China bought 110,000 mt of U.S. soybeans (not corn) for 2012-13 delivery.

 

--USDA announcs that Saudia Arabia bought 110,000 mt of HRW wheat for 2012/13 delivery/

 

One analyst says the markets will digest the fast-paced planting rating and recover. "Looks like producers lost fear of the cold and noted the positive weather for this week and got going.  Emergence is still behind, but hey, lots got planted last week.  It is hurting futures a bit overnight, but I think prices will recover given the strong demand profile.  Beans neutral, Spring Wheat also going in very fast."

 

Mike

-------

At 6:05 am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 10-12 cents lower, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.46 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading steady ahead of a U.S. manufacturing report and more corporate earnings. So far, the week has been met with disappointing data.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific and Europe's stocks are closed for Holiday.

 

Europe's grain stocks and Asia's Dalian Exchange are closed due to holidays. The national radar shows plenty of rain in the Upper Midwest, with the exception of Iowa. A lot of farmers are being delayed in planting this weeek. However, the USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report Monday showed a rip-roaring corn planting speed. Corn is over half planted, emergence is good and the markets overnight are sharply lower because of it.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

0 Kudos
14 Replies
nwiafmr
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

RAIN.PNG 

 

Iowa does have rain in our forecast.....chance of rain seven out of the next ten days.  

0 Kudos
4wd
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Rain forecast here in SWIA all week marketeye.

Muddy as I type. 1/2 done, but planter tarped,  nothing turning probably all week.

0 Kudos
p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Hey Mike..... It took the USDA most of a week to report the last "big sale" to China..... The market dropped early last week..... Did they buy more on that break and we are just now starting to see the reports now?..... Just thinking out load......p-oed

 

0 Kudos
Agbroker
Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Mike Im hearing the 110,000 MT sale was for '12-'13 BEANS this morning. Was there also a corn sale?

0 Kudos
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Oops. You are right AgBroker, I'm wrong. Beans and HRW wheat were sold, not corn.

 

Thanks for catching that.

 

Mike

0 Kudos
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Why are Soybeans pushing higher?????????

0 Kudos
Buckley_HF
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Why not?! We are short of everything. Basis keeps improving everyday in central IL/IN. Interesting comments from ADM this am worried about buying beans and how corn shortage may start affecting ethanol production by end of this month even.
0 Kudos
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Weather.....is what I anticipated the main cause for the grains to go down on Soybeans.  

0 Kudos
glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 1

Don't fight the trend, dawg.

0 Kudos