Floor Talk May 10

[marketeye]

Hobbyfarmer,

Is this report going to be what historians write about, when the 2016 profitability story is printed? Is this the "big one" needed for farmers to actually make some money this year?

What say you and anyone else that wants to react?

Thanks,

Mike

[rayjenkins]

We're still 18-20 cents off the highs in Dec 16 corn futures from the earlier rally

the question is this: are there enough acres left to switch from corn to beans that could result in firmer new crop corn futures??

[gjaygjay5gmail]

Get 1150 later this week..hahahaha

[glenlivet18]

Limit up in beans!  Been a while since we've had one of those.  Can't remember if it hit the limit last June on that monster rally.  Now let's see where we close.

[hardnox]

Bean chart counts better as only 5 of 3, which leaves an open interpretation for another leg up after this one is finished and digested.

If corn goes along for the ride or gets its own story, really just getting started but need to take out the recent high before getting excited at all (I'm still guessing it becomes a corn story at some point, at least briefly).

Here comes the hard part- as the saying goes it takes a first class mind to simultaneuosly keep two distinct purposes entertained at the same time.

From a spec point of view there seems to a decent tech argument for giving it some benefit of the doubt to the upside.

Producers who were talking about survival a few weeks ago may not have that luxury. Everybody knows their situation better than I do, or should.

[westernia80]

Mike, Beans look much better now. I did switch some corn to beans a couple weeks ago, unfortunately I also sold them the same day, but who new this was coming.  Corn still sucks.  Even with the increase today they still are just back to where they were a couple weeks ago before the last pullback, bearly breakeven with an average crop.  I have sold NO new crop corn.  Hopefully it will have its turn eventually.

[roarintiger1]

Ray, even if no acres are switched, the mindset is that now, soybean stocks are shrinking.  Soybeans are way undervalued and appear to be heading higher.  Corn will probably follow.   Buy all you can......as soon as you can....and, as cheap as you can.   

[illinifarmer]

Wow look at all the lost money over the last month. All the analysts saying highs were in and sell, sell, sell what do you reply to a client uh didn't see that coming. Lol

[roarintiger1]

I know words you won't hear.........

"Here's a refund."  

[hardnox]

Not making excuses for them but stuff happens.

In this case Argentina did.

And in my eternal (and generally in vain) defense of hedging with options, taking a .20 loss to roll a soybean put up .50 is preferable to being short or cash sold.

Getting a chance to do it again is even more preferabler.