Floor Talk, May 11, 2020
At the close:
At the close, the July corn futures finished 3/4¢ lower at $3.18. Dec. corn futures ended 1¢ lower at $3.34 1/4.
July soybean futures closed 4 1/4¢ higher at $8.55. November soybean futures settled 3¢ higher at $8.58 1/2.
July wheat futures closed 4 1/4¢ lower at $5.17 1/4.
July soymeal futures finished $0.50 cents per short ton lower at $290.30. July soy oil futures closed $0.05 cent lower at 26.49¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.19 per barrel lower at $24.55 per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 2 points lower.
At midsession, the July corn futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.17 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.34 1/4.
July soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $8.54 3/4. November soybean futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $8.59.
July wheat futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $5.20 1/4.
July soymeal futures are $1.30 cents per short ton higher at $292.10. July soy oil futures are $0.19 cent lower at 26.35¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.46 per barrel lower at $24.28 per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 75 points lower.
On Tuesday, the USDA will release its May WASDE and Supply/Demand Reports.
Pre-report estimates expect the USDA to peg the U.S. corn old-crop ending stocks at 2.22 billion bushels vs. the government's April estimate of 2.092 billion. New-crop corn ending stocks are estimated at 3.38 billion bushels.
For U.S. soybeans, the 2019/2020 ending stocks are expected at 488 million bushels vs. the USDA's April estimate of 480 million. New-crop soybean ending stocks are expected to come in at 430 million bushels.
For wheat, the U.S. old crop ending stocks are expected to be around 969 million bushels, below the USDA's April estimate of 970 million. New-crop wheat estimates are seen at 814 million.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching crop weather, the stock market and this week's USDA Supply/Demand Report for guidance on grain market direction.
"The U.S. stock market and crude oil prices rallied sharply higher last week and that helped the grain markets rally," Kluis told customers in a daily note.
Kluis added, "It's cold outside. The USDA will show corn planting advancing to a near-record 70% in the Crop Progress report today. However, emergence will fall behind the five-year average because of the unseasonably cold temperatures. Current temperatures across the Corn Belt show the freezing 28 to 30 degrees only in extreme northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Tonight is likely to be the coldest night, but I expect the freeze damage to be limited to just 1 or 2% of the Corn Belt."
What say you?
Re: Floor Talk, May 11, 2020
70% of planting is extremely optimistic and 1-2% of frost damaged is extremely pessimistic. You just don’t get a frost as far south as Georgia on a year when 75% of farmers started planting early and only have single digit damage. Insurance office phones are ringing off the hook after last weekend. Problem I’m hearing is most guys put in crops too early before schedule insurance dates. Whoops 😬