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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,175
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk, May 13, 2019

[ Edited ]

At 2:37pm:

 

More Trump money coming to U.S. farmers, according to Reuters. To the tune of $15 billion.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

 

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At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.56. Dec. corn futures closed 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.76 1/4.

July soybean futures ended 7¢ lower at $8.02 1/4. November soybean futures ended 6 1/2¢ lower at $8.26 3/4.

 

July wheat futures settled 12 1/4¢ higher at $4.37.



 

July soymeal futures ended unchanged at $287.30.

 July soy oil futures closed $0.18 cent lower at 26.61¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.73 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 577 points lower.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the July corn futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $3.48 1/2. Dec. corn futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $3.69 1/2.

July soybean futures are 12 1/4¢ lower at $7.97. November soybean futures are 11 1/2¢ lower at $8.21 3/4.

 

July wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.28 1/4.



 

July soymeal futures are $1.60 per short ton lower at $285.70.

 July soy oil futures are $0.38 cent lower at 26.41¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.27 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 588 points lower.

 

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that it’s important to watch for market lows, as everyone gets bearish.

 

“I am watching the nearby corn futures. The spike low at $3.38 on the May corn contract put in a possible double bottom with the late September 2018 low at $3.37. On Tuesday (May 14) the May 2019 corn contract stops trading. It will be important to watch if the July 2019 contract drops back to fill that continuation gap. If the gap is not filled in two weeks, then the Friday low (the crop report low) will likely prove to be a major low. Some times it takes a very bearish report to put a bottom in,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

 

Kluis added, “The USDA Crop Progress report today will show nationwide corn planting at about 35% complete. It will also be important to note how corn emergence compares to normal.”

 

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the corn market is getting rewarded, finishing higher for four consecutive sessions.

 

“It's another ugly and rather depressing day across the grain complex. We opened lower on the overnight trading session and since then have been able to post only modest gains. Friday's WASDE report was much more bearish than most anticipated and today is a hangover from that. Ending stocks were raised in both corn and beans, maintaining pressure on that market. We also got our first look at the 2019/2020 numbers. They did offer much reprieve either. Projections on corn came in at a staggering 2.485 million - a number we haven't published in the post ethanol era,” O’Connell says.

 

O’Connell adds, “Certainly, I believe there is reason for that number to be trimmed in time, but the market will continue to trade it until it doesn't. Soybean ending stock projections for 2019/2020 came in at 970 million bushels - a number realized would only be second to this year in the record books. The global supply issue mirrors ours in the U.S.”

With nothing to tell the funds that their position is not correct, they continue to hold onto their shorts and even add to it, O’Connell says.

 

“Weather forecast models have weather a little more favorable for planting progress in the coming week. Eyes will be on planting progress released today at 3:00. Many would expect to see very little progress - for the sake of the markets let's hope that is true and we get a very positive reaction from the market.”

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,261
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Floor Talk, May 13, 2019

[ Edited ]

Kluis added, “The USDA Crop Progress report today will show nationwide corn planting at about 35% complete. It will also be important to note how corn emergence compares to normal.”

 

On May 8th, he said he expected it to be 44%. I took issue. Now, he walks it back to 35%? Pretty easy way to make a living I guess, if you can be off by 25% in 4 days  (only off by a touch over 8 mil acres)....he must write a "Suc Farming Marketing" Newsletter...Smiley Very HappySmiley Frustrated

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,175
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk, May 13, 2019

timetippingpt,

 

I may have fat-fingered his estimate, when I typed it.

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,261
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Floor Talk, May 13, 2019

[ Edited ]

Nice of you to take the fall for him Mike, he is prone to over-state things

on occassion. He was still off by 16.6%  (35/30), or around 5 mil acres Smiley Sad

 

Corn should be limit up tonight, but of course it won't be, staying

cold/wet in the Dakotas/MN past the PP date is big deal since they

are supposed to grow 18 mil acres of 177 bu corn this year.

 

My personal guess is that carryout just went below zero for

$3.50 corn. Demand for feed is easily understated by 500mil bu,

ethanol by a couple hundred mil, trend yield given these planting

dates should be closer to 164 than 177 together = Negative carryout, see

how easy that was! The funds are now NAKED SHORT about 1.5 Bil

Bu that don't actually exist, and another 1.25 Bil in spread trades

that also don't exist.....Not counting the 800mil bu of wheat they are

short....

 

And, th real kicker, based on some number crunching, most are $100/acre

better off to PP than to grow the crop at 3.80 corn. That is an interesting

incentive for those out in the high prairies don't you think? It is more

than enough incentive for us to save the equipment for another year :-)

 

Switch to beans? Only a mathematically challenged UofI grad would

switch to beans given the insurance situation  :-)

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,261
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Floor Talk, May 13, 2019

Not my idea, but it might warrant a little digging, how much of that massive

short selling was the Chinese? Do you suppose the CFTC has even

monitored Chinese activity in the markets? Probably not....maybe someone

should....?

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 32
Registered: ‎01-06-2015
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Re: Pilfering the treasury to buy votes, pretty despicable.

[ Edited ]

What about all those other industries and businesses that depend on trade?  They get hammered and get nothing?  Makes farmers appear pretty selfish, huh?

  Makes me embarrassed to be soybean farmer even though I know how much I'm going to be hurting for a long time at this rate.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 472
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Floor Talk, May 13, 2019

Ha, time, nail on the head again. These guys make a living right or wrong just like these overpaid weathermen. Same guy said we would benefit so much from this trade deal over a year ago, yet here we are. On a separate note, I believe the payments last year were supposed to be 12b$, but we’re more around $7 billion. We (farmers) never got second round of payments. Going off of reality and facts I would say 15$ is about half of what Trump has cost us as a whole. Again even with 15$ nil on the books we might receive 7-9$. Sad fellas sad.
Frequent Contributor
Posts: 32
Registered: ‎01-06-2015
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Re: Do you see that, it's 9 PM here and ....

Do you see that, it's 9 PM here and the price of beans is up 14 cents on the overnight.  Trump talks about handing out money and price of beans goes up.  Wait until Congress says, "not so fast".

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,520
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk, May 13, 2019

Time, you bring up an interesting point. I struggled to plant all of my acres last year. I had one farm that I finished planting corn on June 5th, looking back I wish I had just put it to PP. A couple days after I planted that June 5th corn it rained almost 5 inches at that location. That farm averaged 85 bushel an acre. It wasn't worth the fertilizer, seed, fuel, and sweat. 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 18,055
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk, May 13, 2019

What I know about prevent plant is it isn`t as juicy as it used to be.  If you can you`re way better off dragging a planter across the field, call it planted and roll the dice for fall.  I think you get a full guarantee (around here) until June 1, then they take away 1% per day until June 15, after that you are on your own or go prevent plant.  But, even then it might pay to sharpen the pencil and plant beans, because PP is a big goose egg on your yield history....if that would be a concern.

 

Time makes a good point on possible "Chinese shorting" the market, it wouldn`t take a lot of money relatively to slam the market, especially when American traders already did the heavy lifting with record shorts, it wouldn`t take much more water to drown a already drowned man. 

 

The blood bath has been over done, because what`s the cash price of beans in Brazil?  I seems logical that had it been business as usual with US/China trade, beans in Brazil should`ve been $7 if they hadn`t picked up business that we allegedly lost...but I`ll bet they wouldn`t have been.  In other words they are kicking a already down man.  

 

I do support and have suggested that president Trump use the tariff revenue to make whole the unfair hit that farmers received.  That would more favorably rearrange the deck chairs and exactly fulfill a purpose of the tariff tool.