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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk May 14

Thanks: I wanted to thank Jeff and Jordan, the consumate, hard-working co-workers that covered the markets and this thread while I was away. So far, the month of May has gotten the best off me. Better now.

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At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 5 3/4 cents higher at $3.68 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 6 1/4 cents higher at $3.84 3/4 per bushel.
July soybean futures ended 1/4 of a cent lower at $9.57. Nov. soybean futures settled 2 1/2 cents higher at $9.37.

July wheat futures closed 32 3/4 cents higher at $5.14 1/4.

July soymeal futures ended $0.20 per short ton lower at $302.20. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $0.72 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 175 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 1:40pm:

Though China's DDGS imports will rise, its corn prouction is headed for a record. So, is this a negative corn market story or not from the Foreign Ag Services Agency Thursday:

Corn and rice production are forecast to reach record levels at 226 and 209 million tons in MY 2015/16 respectively. MY 2015/16 wheat production is forecast at a near record 125 million tons. If realized, this will boost China’s combined output of these grains to a massive 560 million tons, making it once again the world’s largest combined producer of these grains. The record production is the result of high government set prices and subsidies, and has resulted in excess stocks and large fiscal and environmental costs. Imports of corn, wheat and rice are forecast to stay low due to ample domestic production and excess stocks, while imports of lower cost alternative feed imports, such as sorghum, barley, and distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) are expected to continue to expand. Sorghum imports are estimated to have more than doubled in MY 2014/15, with the United States as the largest supplier.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are trading 6 cents higher at $3.68 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 6 cents higher at $3.84 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 2 cents lower at $9.55. Nov. soybean futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $9.34.

July wheat futures are trading 26 1/4 cents higher at $5.07.

July soymeal futures are trading $0.40 per short ton lower at $302.00. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.42 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 175 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, the PRICE Futures Group senior grain analyst, says that wheat is rallying on funds short-covering and Russian news.
"There is talk, today, that Russia is setting its intervention price above the world price of wheat, and that has apparently created the wheat rally.  Also, el nino is around and could affect production in Australia.  But, mostly Russia I guess.  Informa, the private analyst firm, came out with planted area numbers Thursday. Those estimates seem to be keeping the beans weak and helping corn.  Export sales were bad across the board."

.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $3.64 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 2 cents higher at $3.80 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading  3/4 of a cent higher at $9.58. Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $9.35.

July wheat futures are trading 7 3/4 cents higher at $4.89.

July soymeal futures are trading $0.50 per short ton lower at $301.90. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.16 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 121 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

No fresh daily export sales announced Thursday. And Thursday's USDA Weekly Export Sales are weak:

 

 

Wheat= 257,400 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 250,000-400,000 metric tons.

Corn= 372,600 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 650,000-800,000 mt.

Soybeans= 224,600 mt. vs. the trade's expectations of 100,000-300,000 mt.

 

Mike

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At 7:25am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.38 higher.
Dollar =Lower. 
Wall Street = Seen higher, with the market eyeing weekly Jobless Claims Report.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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7 Replies
Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 14

Dollar is possibly headed lower, why buy? The demand will be there. I am glad you are feeling better, we were worried that you got canned.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 14

Welcome back!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 14

Informa, the private analyst firm, releases updated U.S. acreage estimates Thursday. The numbers are pressuring the bean market, helping corn.

 

  • U.S. 2015 CORN PLANTINGS AT 88.737 MILLION ACRES VERSUS USDA AT 89.199 MILLION - TRADE
  • U.S. 2015 SOYBEAN PLANTINGS AT 87.185 MILLION ACRES, UP 2.55 MILLION FROM USDA'S MARCH 2015 ESTIMATE - TRADE
  • U.S. 2015 OTHER SPRING WHEAT PLANTINGS AT 13.219 MILLION ACRES, UP 250,000 FROM USDA'S MARCH 2015 FORECAST - TRADE

What do you think of the acreage estimates?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 14

Mike, glad you are back. Jeff and Jordan did just fine. I got done planting corn and beans a week ago. The larger farmers in my area are almost done. We are probably 85% done with corn and 65% done with beans here on the Michigan/Indiana line

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 14

Blacksandfarmer,

 

Thanks for the note. It's good to get back into the swing of things. I'm not a very good sick person. So, I'm behind for the month and have my work cutout for me. It's great to hear of your planting progress in the eastern Corn Belt. I've heard of some central Iowa farmers that are surprised that when they look at their planting history records, this year has gone fairly quickly. I hear now it is time to start figuring out when to begin to unlock those bins? Does the standoff between commercials and farmers begin this month, in your area?

 

Mike

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 14

Nwo not too far from blacksand. Planted beans 10 days ago. Had 2.6" rain Saturday and Sunday. Looks like a total replant on those .
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 14

I voted to keep you on Mike.

 

But you have to work on that anti-wheat bias....... I see you started working on that today...

 

What happened, was there a legitamite story from Ukraine?  Or did they finally get the reports from sw ks on the wheat tour.....

 

Nice of the tour to finally include us....

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