Floor Talk May 15

[marketeye]

At the close:

The July corn futures contract closed 11 cents lower at $4.84. The Dec. corn futures finished 8 cents lower at $4.80. The July soybean futures contract closed 16 cents lower at $14.70. The Nov. soybean futures finished 16 cents lower at $12.17. July wheat futures finished 12 cents lower at $6.78 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract ended $5.10 per short ton lower at $481.40. The July soyoil futures finished $0.34 lower at $41.04. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.80 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 180 points lower.

Mike

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Informa, NOPA Crush, and Market Thoughts:

Informa estimates 2014 US corn plantings at  91.6 mil vs USDA’s 91.7 mil vs 95.4 mil last year.
 
Informa estimates 2014 US soybean plantings at 82.1 mil  vs USDA’s 81.5  mil vs 76.5 mil last year.
 
Informa estimates 2014 US All wheat plantings at 56.1 mil  vs USDA’s 55.8 mil vs 56.2 mil last year.
 
Informa estimates 2014 US winter wheat plantings at 42.2 mil  vs USDA’s 42.0 mil vs 43.1 mil last year.
 
Informa estimates 2014 US other spring wheat plantings at 12.1 mil vs USDA 12.0 mil vs 11.6 mil last year.
 
 Informa estimates 2014 US all cotton plantings at 10 9 mil vs USDA 11.1 mil vs 10.4 mil last year.
 
April Soybean Crush 132.67 Million Bushels vs. Month Earlier 153.84 Milli
 
Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the Funds are selling on charts and on forecasts for better weather next week.  Export sales nothing special except SBM strong.  Further selling on the neutral NOPA number, there had been bullish fears out there.  Seasonally at this time of year we usually work lower as the crop gets planted, comes up, and looks pretty.  The funds are huge longs and I think we are running out of news to support the big long positions so they are starting to look for the door.  This could get ugly!"

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures contract is trading 10 cents lower at $4.84. The Dec. corn futures are trading 8 cents lower at $4.80. The July soybean futures contract is 17 3/4 cents lower at $14.69. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 6 cents lower at $12.16. July wheat futures are 12 1/4 cents lower at $6.78 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract is trading $7.30 per short ton lower at $479.20. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.20 lower at $41.18. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $1.03 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 179 points lower.

Mike

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In early trading:

The July corn futures contract is trading 6 3/4 cents lower at $4.88. The Dec. corn futures are trading 5 3/4 cents lower at $4.83. The July soybean futures contract is 4 3/4 cents lower at $14.82. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $12.23. July wheat futures are 8 1/2 cents lower at $6.81 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract is trading $0.80 per short ton lower at $485.70. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.15 lower at $41.23. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.04 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 105 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:25am:

Here are the USDA Weekly Export Sales reported Thursday. Soybean numbers are bullish, corn and wheat were within expectations:

Wheat=  252,000 tons vs. the trade's expectations of  100,000-340,000  metric tons.

Corn= 390,300 tons vs. the trade's expectations of 200,000-625,000 metric tons.

Soybeans= 398,300 tons vs. the trade's expectations of (100,000)-100,000  metric tons.

Mike

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At 8:10am:

Today's market noise includes Informa's Acreage Estimates at 10:30 and NOPA's Crush Report at 11am.

Mike

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At 8am:

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

• Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2014/2015 marketing year; and
• Export sales of 104,400 metric tons of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1.

Mike

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At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher , and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.39 per barrel lower.
Dollar= Higher.

Wall Street=Seen lower, with a busy day of data; jobless clams, consumer prices and mft. index.

World Markets=Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[bkadds]

Mike,

     Seems like we all could come up with a corn estimate that has that wide of a range!  Anything to help squash and stability as "it wasa within expectations." 

[WCWISC]

Within expectations = bearish
Above expectations = bearish
Way above expectations = bearish
Cold and wet = bearish
Hot and dry = bearish
Did I miss any?

[jennys_mn]

I haven't taken a shot at the market for awhile, and I said a while back that if I felt the market was wrong, I'd say so.  Today, and for the last week, I think the market is wrong.  More needs to be built into the market now for the weather we have, and are going to have in the long term.  The market seems happy with where it is.  "So what if the northern areas don't get planted - they don't  count anyway - unless, of course, we think they do!", (like Marylands record crop last year) is getting really old.  All the crops planted and not planted count. To discount any areas because  "they don't count" is irrational thinking in my book.  The excuses for why the market did this, and why it did that are largely a historical note at the end of the day to justify what happened.  It has nothing to do with the real world by and large.  It has far more to do with what has been concocted in some board room, and how to best play the cards to make the most money for their investors.  And this is where the markets are failing the farmers.  And it will probably get far worse before it gets better.

The needs of the many (investors) outweigh the needs of the few - or the one (farmer) standing alone in a cold, wet - or hot and dry, field.

Jen 

[roarintiger1]

Obviously, the market place is very complacent.......don't worry, be happy.

There doesn't seem to be ANY weather premium in these markets right now.

[Blacksandfarmer]

Mike, just looking at my area. The last 25% of corn and the last 60% of beans will be going in late. We were a little on the dry side wich made for a nice planting window, but we have gotten almost 2 inches of rain here over the last two days. Planters will not roll again here for a good week. The further south into Indiana you go the more rain they got. Im not seeing 165 yield in corn..... of course I never did anyway.

[giolucas]

Jenny and Roaring,

In your estimation, where should the price of soybeans and corn be if the market has not taken the weather, supply and demand currently?

[roarintiger1]

gio,  I believe they are trading the record yields that the USDA has predicted.......and will until proven otherwise.  This doesn't seem quite right, but it is, what it is..........unitl it ain't......anymore.    

[giolucas]

roaring,

You are right but I always think that the big boys, ABCD, (ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Dreyfus) control the grain markets.  Whatever the weather, the production, the demand is, if it doesn't fit with their plan then they move market as they see fit.

[luisvieira]

Hello boys,

I have a question for you. How volatile are canola prices for Iowa growers? There are people in Brazil saying that all farmers here should get rid of wheat. And then, plant more canola. Here there are lot of problems with the value - mostly because sometimes Argentina can export to Brazil, sometimes not, sometimes an external tariff is applied on US wheat, sometimes not... So that is very confusing for farmers. Would canola be a lot better in your perspective?