Floor Talk May 15

[Hobbyfarmer]

Iowa is not a canola area

[jennys_mn]

Gio - for me, corn should be 5.20 - 5.50 new crop.  Old still around 5.00.  Beans - a dollar higher across the boards until we see what gets planted when.

I was just over to Red Wing swimming at the YMCA, and was thinking about how many years here the crop was knee high on the fourth of June.  And it's been quite a few over the years.  This year - I have yet to see a stalk of corn out of the ground.  I would advise buying propane now for fall, except that I think our fall has a pretty good chance of being nice.  That said, we could still take a frost, and then be nice, which helps nothing.

I think most farmers out there are asking the same questions - why are corn, beans, wheat lower?  Probably because of what RT said - the trade is comfortable with the 165 bu/ac.  Whatever.

Jen

[timetippingpt]

When you allow speculative excesses of the scope that are now in fashion, mostly due to the huge transfer of wealth by the fed and Obamanomics from the poor to the wealthiest (ie big banks, funds, hedge funds, HFTraders, etal), by definition the specs get to change the price based upon their perception of the future. You certainly don't think they are going to listen to farmers worry about yield do you? After last year? No, their perception will change based upon the TIME it takes human emotions to sway back and forth.  🙂

This decline in corn was about the easiest to see coming in years, at least since the highs in 2012. It is very likely the market will attempt to fill the gap at 5.00 someTIME in the next month, but odds are against trading above it.

Jen, the market should have traded back to your 5.50 number, I agree. The fact that it did not is actually a bearish concern, not bullish. jmo  Maybe it still will, but the odds are extremely against it.