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05-15-2018 07:07 AM - last edited on 05-15-2018 01:41 PM by marketeye
At the close:
At the close, the July corn futures finished 5 3/4¢ higher at $4.02. December futures closed 5¢ higher at $4.19. July soybean futures finished 1¢ higher at $10.18. November soybean futures finished 1¢ higher at $10.18. July wheat futures closed 2 1/4¢ higher at $4.93. July soy meal futures settled $5.30 per short ton lower at $382.30. July soy oil futures finished 0.13 lower at 31.12¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.21 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 183 points lower.
At mid-session, the July corn futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.98. December futures 1 1/4¢ higher at $4.15. July soybean futures are 11 1/4¢ lower at $10.06. November soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ lower at $10.14. July wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $4.87. July soy meal futures are $8.60 per short ton lower at $379.00. July soy oil futures are 0.04 lower at 31.21¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.33 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 237 points lower.
In early trading, the July corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.97. December futures 3/4¢ higher at $4.15. July soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $10.12. November soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $10.19. July wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $4.89. July soy meal futures are $5.80 per short ton lower at $381.80. July soy oil futures are 0.17 lower at 31.08¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.48 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 189 points lower.
Soybeans were higher in overnight trading on a positive export inspections report and signs that tensions between the US and China are cooling. Beans were up 2 cents, corn gained almost 3 cents and wheat was up 1-2 cents overnight. Still, a strengthening dollar today is capping prices. Rain is in the forecast for the southern Plains tomorrow and Thursday, which would give crops in the Oklahoma panhandle a much-needed and timely boost of moisture, but there's still only a 40% chance of precipitation in the area. In other news, corn growers got after it last week, seeding almost a quarter of the entire US crop in seven days. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things.
West Texas Intermediate = up 0.8%.
Brent Crude = up 1%
Dollar = up 0.4%.
Wall Street = U.S. stock higher pre-market.
World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.
05-15-2018 07:33 AM
Any reports from South America? Seems like news out of there was a market driver for a while, but now as they are finishing up harvest, there is no news coming from there. I would think that there are some hard numbers on final yields that could be making a marketing difference.
05-15-2018 08:39 AM
Heavy repeated rains flooding unharvested bean fields.
One third of a crappy yielding crop left to harvest in mud and standing water.
Might be even more losses.
Lots of acres of beans to be planted in Iowa too.
Not too late yet but not early any more either.
05-15-2018 08:42 AM
Anybody else get a packet from the Kansas lawsuit win against Syngenta?
Not from a lawyer, online way to get paid or get a paper claim form.
I've thrown every lawyer letter away.
05-15-2018 09:16 AM
Yup got one yesterday and i think you should read it.
I skimmed through it this morning looks like even if you did not sign on earlier you still qualify.
But i aint no lawyer so what do i know...............
05-15-2018 12:57 PM
Yes, I got my packet yesterday. Originally I wasn't sure what I wanted to do. I just felt that China was manipulating the corn market and Syngenta was just the easy target, so I did nothing. Now that China owns Syngenta I have no problem getting involved with this settlement.
05-16-2018 04:21 PM
Just finished it a few thoughts
1. The simplest observation.......the payout to corn producers is at best 963.46 million after the 1/3 legal fees
2 even though it appears to cover 5 crop years it is reduced by "weighted averages" to be one average year of production. Which is not your actual production, but whatever fsa says your county average yield is by the average acres of those years for your planted corn ---- minus the bushels fed or used on farm(your still doesn't count to a payment although the subsidized ones do.) Not sure how the counties with multiple practice yields will work...claim by practice or blended yield.
Assumptions to get us to numbers......... Usda's yields are slightly pumped up.... so lets take a 13 billion bu crop average and assume at least 30% of those bushels will not file a claim = 9.1 billion (assuming elderly land owners and small farmers and of course the claim form is not simple)
example A So if your the BTO guy who had 900K average yield in a fringe county where there is blended yield. you will drop to a 500k yield from your 5000+ acres of corn. $40-50,000 potential .------- or $2 per acre per year... 6 cents per bushel yield for one year total payment or 1.2 cents per year per bushel. Assuming a 100 bpa blended county average. If claims are filed on by all producers reduce these figures by 30%
example B --- 600 acres corn average acres with a 160 bu county average/fsa.= 96K average annual yield. $6,720 maximum potential or $2 per acre per year ---or $0.07 per bushel of an average yield of 96K per year. If all producers participate $9600 potential or 10 cents per average bushel if 30 % do not file.
payments will probably be higher than this because more than 30% may not file.
The legal payout..... by the document ----- 1/3 of the settlement..... 474.54 Million to the hundreds of lawyers who participated........ If that is 500 legal firms it will be nearly a million each.
It is clear to me why these suits were filed.... and who stood to benefit. Not the guy who is paying $90 per year per acre for corn seed. But we all knew that.
Will I participate........ Im looking at the claim form now........
if you didn't have crop insurance or report acres to fsa...... or they did not keep your records accurate... might be a problem but it looks doable. It all smells like we helped our corn seed prices go up........helped send technology to China....... and those mailings were worth sending out....... but not for us.
Booked what did you think.....??
05-16-2018 09:29 PM
Just have had no time to do any more reading on it. Today was the first day i could do any field work in the swamp i live in. And then the tillage tractor had issues.
But it sure looks like if you grew corn you can still get in..................