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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, May 16, 2019

At the close:

 

At the close, the July corn futures finished 9 3/4¢ higher at $3.79 1/2. Dec. corn futures ended 7 3/4¢ higher at $3.96 3/4.

July soybean futures closed 4 1/4¢ higher at $8.39 1/2. November soybean futures finished 5¢ higher at $8.64 1/2.

 

July wheat futures finished 18 1/4¢ higher at $4.67.



 

July soymeal futures finished $2.10 per short ton higher at $301.90.

 July soy oil futures settled $0.48 cent higher at 27.72¢ per pound.

 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.03 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 278 points higher.

 

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the farm markets are seeing very nice movement across the entire grain complex this week.

 

“You've got a couple of things at play here today. We had a technical key reversal pattern on Monday for corn and wheat - setting new contract lows and then closing the day higher. For a change of play, corn is leading beans higher. Since the funds were carrying such a short position, you have a bit of short covering and even fund buying on the heels of Monday's planting progress report. With corn coming in at only 30% planted vs 5 year average of 66% planted, the market has finally started to objectify these delays. Forecast for most of the Corn Belt is wetter than normal for next 10 days, although temps looks to be closer to normal,” O’Connell says.

 

Mike

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At 11:45am:

 

At midsession, the July corn futures are 9 3/4¢ higher at $3.79 1/2. Dec. corn futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $3.96 3/4.

July soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ higher at $8.40 1/2. November soybean futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $8.65 1/2.

 

July wheat futures are 18¢ higher at $4.66 3/4.



 

July soymeal futures are $2.50 per short ton higher at $302.20.

 July soy oil futures are $0.39 cent higher at 27.63¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.13 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 266 points higher.

 

Mike

-----------------

At 9:35am:

 

In early trading, the July corn futures are 8¢ higher at $3.77 1/2. Dec. corn futures are 6 3/4¢ higher at $3.95 3/4.

July soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $8.43 1/2. November soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $8.67 1/2.

 

July wheat futures are 12¢ higher at $4.60 3/4.

July soymeal futures are $3.40 per short ton higher at $303.20.

July soy oil futures are $0.21 cent higher at 27.45¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.98 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 199 points higher.

 

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are heading to the exit doors.

 

“The weather remains very wet. Expect some volatility in the markets for the next two weeks as the US tries to get the corn crop planted,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

 

Kluis added, “Funds like to buy or sell in three-day increments. I think yesterday was day three of a short-covering rally. Once the funds quit buying, the market had a tough time holding up. I think we will see choppy market action now as we watch the extended weather maps.”

 

On Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report favorable soybean, corn figures.

 

Corn= 634,100 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-800,000 mmt.

 

Soybeans= 674,300 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 mt.-900,000 mt.

 

Wheat= 533,900 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000-500,000 mt.

 

Soybean meal= 265,400 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 125,000-275,000 mt.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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4 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 16, 2019

Hey Mike,  Do you have any connections to put a weather map of predicted rainfall totals for the next 6-10 days?    I've seen some doozies.  It does not bode well for the crops already planted or for that matter to get anything planted anytime soon.   

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Advisor

say at least 10 million acres of PP

In the corn belt in 2019.

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Honored Advisor

Re: say at least 10 million acres of PP

Thanks for finishing my post................Smiley Wink

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Honored Advisor

Re: say at least 10 million acres of PP

David Kruse has a interesting 5 minute radio spot, I`m posting the link, but don`t dilly dally listening to it cause by the end of the day there`ll be a new one in it`s place.

 

https://commstock.com/media/   

 

 

Kruse talks about planting woes and "markets go where they hurt the greatest number of people"....and in corn`s case that will be higher.   Because of prevent plant and if this forecast materializes then "panic" will set in for many who so far haven`t been panicked.  The market is going to have to bid some carrots away from prevent plant. (which I find funny, because last year in my planting delay year, the agent essentially told me my policy was worthless if I didn`t get it planted).  Apparently all areas have different expectations, satisfactions and economics, one person starves while the other can get fat on crop insurance....I`m in the starvation end of the insurance spectrum  Smiley Happy

 

Something about David Kruse, he`s a shameless political hack that has a unbelievable misunderstanding of macro markets, I can barely stand listening to most of his crap.   However on micro, short term markets he`s good as the best, Kruse is a pop psychology marketer and sometimes that`s all you have to go to look for clues.  

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