Floor Talk May 16

[marketeye]

What's Up In The Former Soviet Union? More crops are being planted, despite the weakening economy in Ukraine.

Full Story: Ukraine Plants More Corn and Soybeans in 2016.

Thanks to Agriculture.com's freelancer writer, Iurii Mykalhov in Kiev, Ukraine, fior the update.

Mike

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After the close:

USDA Crop Progress Report:

Corn= 75% vs. 70% 5-year ago, and 54% week ago.

43% vs. 34% 5-year emerged.

Soybeans= 36% vs. 32 5-year average.

10% of the crop is emerged vs. 9%.

Wheat crop rated at 62% good/excellent

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 3 1/4 cents higher at $3.94, Dec. futures finished 1 3/4 cents higher at $4.00 per bushel. July soybean futures closed 1/2 of a cent lower at $10.64 1/2, while Nov. soybean futures closed 1/2 of a cent higher at $10.55. July wheat futures ended unchanged at $4.74 3/4. July soymeal futures closed $1.80 short ton lower at $361.20. July soyoil futures closed $0.29 higher at $32.79.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.51 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 206 points higher.

Jack Scoville
The PRICE Futures Group, Senior Market Analyst, says that the market wants to move higher but does not have enough to get the job done.  My desk is dead quiet today.  I can’t generate much interest.  My farmers are quiet and some are trying to get back into the fields, but mostly they are doing other things.  My user end is not doing much either and the specs are maybe interested in buying a bit in the new crop due to the cold weather.  People not believing the trade planting progress ideas of 70 and 40 for corn and beans.  The crush was a nothing number for prices.  Other than that people seem to be doing other things than trading corn wheat and beans.  Saw no damage in E Wisconsin this weekend but did not expect any.  The west had the colder temps, but no one calling me of any losses and I think grow points for corn were still below the soil line and there is not enough wheat in those areas to care."
 
Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are 1/2 of a cent higher at $3.91, Dec. futures are unchanged at $3.98 per bushel. July soybean futures are 2 1/4 cents lower at $10.62, while Nov. soybean futures are 1 cent higher at $10.55. July wheat futures are 3 1/4 cents lower at $4.71. July soymeal futures are $2.40 short ton lower at $360.60. July soyoil futures are $0.36 higher at $32.86.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.42 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 139 points higher.

Mike

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Market News Items:

--The National Oilseed Processors Association report will be released at 11:00 am CT time today. The trade is expecting April soybean crush of 147.7 million bushels, down 1.8% from last year.

--USDA announced that South Korea bought 120,000 tons of U.S. corn Monday.

--USDA is expected to estimate U.S. corn and soybean planting completion rates. What are your guesses?

Mike

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at At 8:45m:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 2 1/2 cents lower at $3.88, Dec. futures are 3 cents lower at $3.95 per bushel. July soybean futures are 5 1/4 cents lower at $10.59, while Nov. soybean futures are 4 cents lower at $10.50. July wheat futures are 2 3/4 cents lower at $4.72. July soymeal futures are $3.90 short ton lower at $359.10. July soyoil futures are $0.17 higher at $32.67.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.23 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points higher.

Mike

[illinifarmer]

Very similar to the US . Over the last 15 years of are failing economy we somehow continue to plant more and flood the market. Growing acres and stock piles every year and your asking why well the multiplying population is part of it. More people equals more food regardless of the economy. Humans and animals have to eat

[sw363535]

1.  The bills go on and it takes more bushels to pay them  Same as the early 1930's

2.   it is more imparative to have abundance when few can afford to spend more.....

3.  when there is little to spend less is spent and less waisted.  Spelling appropriate.   

4.  Even if we have to count the bushels in every Chinese pantry we need a lot of grain on hand to keep prices down, which keeps costs down and crowds content.

[Hobbyfarmer]

MONDAY, MAY 9, 2016

Mycotoxin Threat to China's "Golden Pigs"

A Chinese news site warns swine producers to be on the alert for mycotoxins in corn that could kill off their "golden pigs" during this time of soaring profits. 

Soozhu.com has a web page warning that corn released from the government's temporary reserve could be contaminated with a number of toxins due to excessive levels of mold in the corn. The warning explains that corn reserves ballooned from 10 million metric tons in 2012 to 58 mmt in 2013, 80 mmt in 2014, and are now up to 260 mmt. Although the reserve standards require mold content to be less than 2% and moisture less than 14%, the reserve nevertheless contains large volumes of corn with aflatoxin, zearalenone, deoxynivalenol, and ochratoxin. 

Soozhu.com warns that 70 million metric tons of corn produced in 2012 and 2013 could soon be released to the market. This corn is beyond the usual maximum 2-to-3 years to be held in storage in northern China. 

Swine consuming feed that contains mytoxins are subject to all kinds of ailments, including loss of appetite, fever, skin discoloration, lesions, diarrhea, vomiting, constipation, and other conditions making them susceptible to disease. Soozhu says that sow productivity has already been reduced by delay of estrus, miscarriages, stillbirths, and postpartum problems due to toxins in moldy corn. Soozhu.com warns that farmers can see various diseases such as bacterial infections, classical swine fever, "blue ear disease," and circovirus related to mycotoxins. Soozhu.com warns that farmers often try one medication after another and increase vaccinations without seeing results.

Soozhu.com estimates that sows can yield profits of 12,000 yuan annually at current prices for feeder pigs, but mycotoxins could take away your "golden pig" if you're not careful

[roarintiger1]

Of course some of their corn is moldy.  Probably, much of it is.  The Chinese storage facilities are certainly not up to U.S. standards.   This is why no one should believe their corn inventory numbers.   The traders see these numbers and are not worried in the least about the global supply of corn.   But........maybe they should be. 

[lsc76cat]

Not sure who posted this a while back but found it interesting and saved it = Chinese corn drying:

[sw363535]

What shape is the world in when the two super producers in the world store grain the way they do...

Hard to point fingers when nearly every pile on the ground this year has a high % of damage....

We can't seem to get a carry over 12 months without it having major conditioning problems..