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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, May 18, 2020

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.20 1/2. Dec. corn futures ended 3/4¢ higher at $3.32 1/2.

July soybean futures closed 6 1/2¢ higher at $8.45. November soybean futures settled 7 1/4¢ higher at $8.52 3/4.

July wheat futures finished 3 1/4¢ lower at $4.97.

July soymeal futures closed $2.40 per short ton lower at $285.10.

 July soy oil futures ended 0.74 cent higher at 27.32¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.50 per barrel higher at $31.93 per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 940 points higher.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that both corn and soybeans have found strength on the first trading day of the week.
"While we cannot point to one thing specifically that has provided support to the commodity complex, but rather a host of supportive features. From a technical perspective, both corn and soybeans have been consolidating into an upward channel. With no more bad news and the funds carrying a hefty short position corn seems content to tread water," O'Connell says.

She added, "A stronger crude oil and stock market gave underlying support. Soybeans can attribute some of their strength to the continued Chinese purchases. Since the beginning of May, China can be linked to approximately 2,154,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans. It appears that China may be making an effort to fulfill the Phase 1 trade deal commitments. While they will need to have a continued presence certainly these are moves in the right direction," O'Connell says.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the July corn futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.19 1/2. Dec. corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.31 1/2.

July soybean futures are 5¢ higher at $8.43 1/2. November soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $8.51 3/4.

July wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $4.97 1/4.

July soymeal futures are $2.10 per short ton lower at $285.40.

 July soy oil futures are 0.62 cent higher at 27.20¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $3.32 per barrel higher at $32.75 per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 811 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:45am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.21. Dec. corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.34.

July soybean futures are 7¢ higher at $8.45 1/2. November soybean futures are 6 3/4¢ higher at $8.51 3/4.

July wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $4.96 1/4.

July soymeal futures are $0.20 per short ton lower at $287.30.

July soy oil futures are 0.49 cent higher at 27.07¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $3.07 per barrel higher at $32.50 per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 673 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the markets are eyeing this week's corn market action and the crude oil market's direction, for further guidance.

"The very bearish USDA corn supply/demand report was anticipated by the markets. Corn prices closed about unchanged on the weekly chart last week. Now the key to signal a low will be a close in July corn above the two-day high at $3.20 1/2," Kluis told customers in a daily note. What will happen in the crude oil market this week? A close above the April high ($33.15) will be a positive signal for the energy market and the entire commodity complex.

Kluis added, "The positive rally in the energy markets was offset by a ramp-up in trade tensions again between the U.S. and China."

 

Mike

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The USDA office, in Iowa, sent this note out this morning.

During the next several weeks, U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will conduct the June Agricultural Survey. The agency will contact producers nationwide to determine crop acreage and stock levels as of June 1, 2020.

The June Agricultural Survey is a critical survey of commodities for the 2020 growing season,” said Greg Thessen, director of the NASS Upper Midwest Regional Field Office. “When growers respond to this survey, they provide essential information that helps determine the expected acreage and supply of major commodities in the United States for the 2020 crop year. Results from this survey are used by farmers and ranchers, USDA, businesses, exporters, researchers, economists, policymakers, and others who use the survey information in making a wide range of decisions that benefit the producer.”

Growers can respond to the June Agricultural Survey online, by phone, or mail. They will be asked to provide information on planted and harvested acreage, including acreage for biotech crops, and grain stocks.

“NASS safeguards the privacy of all respondents by keeping all individual information confidential, and publishing the data in aggregate form only to ensure that no operation or producer can be identified,” said Thessen. “We recognize that this is a hectic time for farmers, but the information they provide helps U.S. agriculture remain viable and capable. I urge them to respond to the June Agricultural survey and thank them for their cooperation.

NASS will analyze the survey information and publish the results in a series of USDA reports, including the annual Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports, to be released June 30, 2020. The survey data also contribute to NASS’ monthly and annual Crop Production reports, the annual Small Grains Summary, and USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

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4 Replies
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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 18, 2020

State wide flooding here crops still not emerged.  Lots of acres underwater.  That’s right completely ignore the facts and outside markets to keep grains suppressed and below break even prices. Hypocrites 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 18, 2020

Yep, grains move 1/4 of one cent

(ever try to cut a penny in 4 pieces)

But when it does we are to dance

and sing and all face the shrine

in chicago and give thanks.

 

But in my state of confusion...I get

My directions confused and bow

The wrong direction !

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 18, 2020

The quote from Greg Thessen......"When growers respond to this survey, the markets take a dive." 

There........I fixed it for him.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 18, 2020

Also.........you want to see a perfect start to the planting season?   Come to NW Ohio.   Although the ground was cold, the soil worked beautifully.   Well, that perfect start has ended today.  Massive rainfall and flooding has turned this into something that will be much worse than last year.   

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