Floor Talk May 2

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 5 1/4¢ lower at $3.72 1/4, while December futures finished 4 1/2¢ lower at $3.90. July soybean futures finished 1 1/2¢ lower at $9.68 3/4, November soybean futures finished 1/4¢ higher at $9.64. July wheat futures closed 2¢ lower at $4.54. July soy meal futures ended $3.60 per short ton lower at $315.00. July soy oil futures closed $0.46 higher at 32.62¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.46 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points higher.

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $3.72, while December futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.89. July soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $9.66, November soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $9.62. July wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $4.52. July soy meal futures are $5.20 per short ton lower at $313.40. July soy oil futures are $0.46 higher at 32.62¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.49 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points higher.

Mike

--------

At 9AM:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $3.75, while December futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $3.92. July soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $9.71, November soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $9.66. July wheat futures are 1/4¢ higher at $4.56. July soy meal futures are $2.80 per short ton lower at $315.80. July soy oil futures are $0.44 higher at 32.60¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.18 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points higher.

Mike

--------

Wheat futures rose again in overnight trading as more reports of the damage from the weekend winter storm come in. Growers are saying that the excessive snow -- up to a foot in some areas -- snapped headed plants in some areas and freezing weather cut yields in others. The Kansas Wheat Tour starts today and while I know many of you don't put much stock in the estimates derived from the event, we'll at least get some color on what's going on out in western Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle. HRW wheat futures rose 6 cents, SRW was up 3 cents, soybeans added 6 cents and corn was down a penny.

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = up 0.9%.  

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = up 0.6%. 

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher as Europe mostly beats on PMIs.

[Blacksandfarmer]

Tony, IMO I think we are starting to see the formation of a bull market. Looking at whats to come weather wise don't look good. Heavy rain is expected in the corn belt, east of the Mississippi river Thursday and Friday. Most planters have not touched the field in my area. I sell seed, and most of my customers seed is still in my shed, but thats ok, with cold soils I would rather that seed be sitting in a shed than in the ground right now. 

If we add in the predicted warmer than average summer, and a possibility of some significant PP in northern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan, we could see $4+ corn in the next couple months. 

[roarintiger1]

The top USDA yield predictions have already been made.  This is the type of year that will remind everyone why we have crop insurance.

[JimMeade]

USDA hasn't made any predictions and never does.  Thinking they do messes with people's head.  USDA makes projections and projections are subject to all the vicissitudes of life, which means we'd better be prepared to handle them.  Projections are adjusted just like the trajectory of a rifle bullet is adjusted if the wind changes.  A projection is not locked in like a prediction is.

I hope with everyone else that the market does go up substantially this summer.  I also hope that I grow a good crop to sell at the good price.  I also hope I have the sense to sell it (there is the rub).  I have some sell offers in place, at any rate.

Also, I hope my marketing is good because I don't carry crop insurance.

[timetippingpt]

Jim, I've never understood your insurance decision. We don't buy much coverage when spring prices are below $5.50, but when I can guarantee 80% of my trend adjusted yield (about 85% of the actual average) for $5.00 an acre, it just makes no sense not to do it. We certainly have very low odds of having a claim, about 1 in 14 or so each year, but it is a cheap assurance that the business persists. Besides, it makes the bank very happy! 🙂

[JimMeade]

Time,

My insurance decision is simple.  Although I have good waterways, buffer strips, contour strips and no-till, I don't like the government in my business.  I did use crop insurance when it was not mandatory, but at the same time always wondered if it was worth it.

So - we generally have good yields, which means I only once or twice even broke even on crop insurance, and I don't like NRCS.  It's simple.