cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, May 20, 2019

At the close:

 

At the close, the July corn futures finished 5 3/4¢ higher at $3.89, reaching an 11-month high of $3.91. Dec. corn futures closed 6 1/2¢ higher at $4.04 1/2.

July soybean futures closed 10¢ higher at $8.31 3/4. November soybean futures finished 10 1/2¢ higher at $8.57 3/4.

 

July wheat futures closed 13 1/4¢ higher at $4.78 1/4.



 

July soymeal futures ended $3.00 per short ton higher at $297.30.

 July soy oil futures settled $0.28 cent higher at 27.50¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.38 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 130 points lower.

 

Mike

-----------

At 11:15am:

 

At midsession, the July corn futures are 6¢ higher at $3.89 1/4, reaching an 11-month high of $3.91. Dec. corn futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $4.03.

July soybean futures are 10¢ higher at $8.31 3/4. November soybean futures are 10 1/2¢ higher at $8.57 3/4.

 

July wheat futures are 15 1/4¢ higher at $4.80 1/4.



 

July soymeal futures are $2.40 per short ton higher at $296.80.

 July soy oil futures are $0.30 cent higher at 27.52¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.36 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 85 points lower.

 

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the grain complex has found continued strength into the start of the week on weather, politics and fund short covering.

 

“From a weather front, we continue to see significant rainfall predictions for a large portion of the Corn Belt; moreover, significant rains were seen this weekend in many areas. So, the planting struggle continues. Some farmers, in the Decatur, Illinois, area haven't turned a wheel. We will continue to watch the planting progress reports carefully. I would suspect that while we will remain behind the five- year average, good progress was made last week in a lot of areas,” O’Connell says.

 

O’Connell adds, “The Friday announcement of tariff removals from corn ( along with dairy products ) from Mexico has certainly helped give this market some support from a demand perspective. This is something that was certainly welcomed in an environment where supplies have weighed on this market for a long time. Hopefully, the USMCA trade agreement is soon signed and this is the beginning of a better story line in trade. Lastly, and certainly not least, open interest has been increasing in the corn contract indicating that the funds are not just covering their short positions, but also becoming buyers. This is a decent recipe for continued strength. New crop Dec corn is testing some stiff resistance at the 4.05 area today.”

 

Mike

----------

At 9:15am:

 

In early trading, the July corn futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $3.91. Dec. corn futures are 6 1/4¢ higher at $4.04 1/2.

July soybean futures are 13¢ higher at $8.34 3/4. November soybean futures are 12 1/2¢ higher at $8.59 3/4.

 

July wheat futures are 13 1/4¢ higher at $4.78 1/4.



 

July soymeal futures are $3.20 per short ton higher at $297.50.

 July soy oil futures are $0.27 cent higher at 27.49¢ per pound.

 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.15 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 97 points lower.

 

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are getting even shorter in the soybean market.

 

“The trade continues to buy corn and sell soybeans on the wet weather pattern, and the thought that US farmers will plant less corn and more soybeans. The CFTC position report Friday also showed funds a lot shorter than I had expected,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

 

Kluis added, “ The USDA Crop Progress report today will show nationwide corn planting at about 52% complete. I also expect corn emergence to be way behind because of cool wet conditions.”

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

0 Kudos
10 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 20, 2019

52% that’s funny 😄 0% here
0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 20, 2019

Klueless was only off 5% planted last week, he might be right on this week.

I'd guess 49% but who knows, NASS will do what it does and the trade will

take it as gospel. The issue that is not considered, and won't be till the Oct

yield report probably, is that planting corn in the mud after May 10th almost

guarantees a below trend yield, actually a below average yield.

 

If less than 50%, and we open higher tonight, probably a great time to

get less long the market, especially on old crop bushels. If you have July

basis contracts remember the trade has a huge incentive to make you

eat them like they did in March and May at FND. At least buy a weekly put,

as it warms up this week, the ground will dry quickly and the planters will

roll, unless the forecast is right and it rains every other day Smiley Sad

 

If I see one more University Agronomist telling everyone that we can still

grow a great crop.....selective statistics....great work if you can get it with tenure.

Yes, there is still a 10% chance that we could grow a trendline yield. A 10%

chance, that is not LIKELY but oh it is indeed possible

0 Kudos
Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 20, 2019

Farmers are not gonna switch to beans there is no money in them most will take the insurance bs check and probally go bankrupt.
0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 20, 2019

How can you go bankrupt locking in a profit on each acre, and driving prices

substantially higher for next years crop? PP is not a loss for anyone, well

I suppose some of the family farms groups that are paying $400 cash rent

would lose some, but they will lose much less than they planned too when

the season started. :-)

 

Just taking a anecdotal sample of farms that I am very familiar with thru

ouf Peer Network, PP pays around $400 on average, and costs including land

would be around $300 which includes planting an awesome cover crop mix in June.

$100 net would be the best year in the last 4 for alot of folks. :-)

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 20, 2019

Percentage planted is only part of the smoke & mirrors that the USDA prints every week.   Let's also talk about the current and future growing conditions out there.   It's hardly ideal.   Let's also assume that 52% of the corn crop is planted.  That means that 48% or about 44 million corn acres are going to have much less than trendline yields..........and losing more every day.   This growing season is a train wreck waiting to happen......well heck, it's happening right now before our eyes.   There are going to be some endusers who are going to be very disappointed that they did not lock in their usage needs soon enough.  Of course, when the price of corn goes up, ethanol will still get the blame. 

0 Kudos
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 20, 2019

Is anybody capable of running a calculator going to actually plant more soybeans?   Now, I've been through a lot of awful, wet, late springs.  I know what it looks like when over 50,000 acres are prevent plant in one county,  I've planted a lot of June 15-30th soybeans, and I've replanted soybeans while I was watching the local 4th of July fireworks from the tractor cab.  

 

I've never done all that when the market was offering me NO incentive to do the work and take the risks.  Current Mississippi River terminal bids for harvest delivery at less than $8, plus roughly 25 cents/bushel for me to get them there on a truck, works out to just about right at $2 less than the spring RMA price of $9.54

 

Will I fight to plant $12+ beans late and roll the dice?  You betcha.  Less than $8?  No, I'll be leaving the casino with as many of the chips as I can carry from the table to try and play again on a better day.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 20, 2019

Clayseia,

 

Great take. A lot of what you just said is what I'm hearing from folks too.

 

Thanks for your contribution in this thread.

 

Mike

0 Kudos
Veteran Contributor

Re: Only 49% planted vs. 80% 5-yr ave. What's that mean for price?

Only 49% planted vs 80% 5-yr ave.  What's that mean for the price of corn, both old crop and new crop?

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Only 49% planted vs. 80% 5-yr ave. What's that mean for price?

Now there are potentially 47 million acres of corn yet to plant......under less than ideal conditions.    Mother nature may have solved our over production problem.   

0 Kudos