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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, May 23, 2019

At the close:

 

At the close, the July corn futures finished 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.89 3/4. Dec. corn futures closed 4 3/4¢ lower at $4.08.

July soybean futures closed 7¢ lower at $8.21 1/2. November soybean futures settled 7¢ lower at $8.48 1/4.

 

July wheat futures closed 2 1/2¢ lower at $4.70 1/4.

 



July soymeal futures settled $1.10 per short ton lower at $297.20.

 July soy oil futures closed $0.53 cent lower at 26.78¢ per pound.

 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $3.54 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 402 points lower.

 

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the market seems a bit lost on how to interpret how the newest round of MFP payments could effect planting.

 

“Corn found higher ground overnight, breaking thru $4.13-$4.15 resistance and then backing off. Weather that be because of more details being announced around MFP or simply some profit taking as we tested key resistance is hard to say. Should we break higher our next resistance would come in at $4.29 1/2, last summers high. Old crop has struggled with breaching $4 futures. This market is cautiously optimistic,” O’Connell says.

 

O’Connell adds, “The struggle is real in beans - can't catch a positive story line to save it's life. To be honest, I'm not sure how much upside the soybean market has here - could it limit corns move higher. I doubt it, but I have had a lot of clients in the last 10 days call in to say they are planting all corn and no beans, switching acres even late and confident that even at a reduced yield they can fair better with corn than beans. All the more reason for producers to be active sellers in corn market today,” O’Connell says.

 

 

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At midsession, the July corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.96 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $4.15.

July soybean futures are 3/4¢ lower at $8.27 1/2. November soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $8.54 1/4.

 

July wheat futures are 5 1/4¢ higher at $4.78.



 

July soymeal futures are $0.60 per short ton higher at $298.90.

 July soy oil futures are $0.36 cent lower at 26.95¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $3.20 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 388 points lower.

 

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that corn farmers should be cautious about getting too bulled up.

 

“The wheat market seems to be finding a little resistance this week. We will need the wheat market to extend its rally in order for the corn market to keep trending higher. We are quickly getting oversold and we could see a correction in the grain markets,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

 

Kluis added, “Producers need to be a bit cautious about getting too bulled up in the corn market. Yes, the US crop is getting smaller. However, so is demand. We will likely carry more old crop corn bushels into the new marketing year. Exports are dropping off and we have poor ethanol margins.”

 

 

Mike

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5 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 23, 2019

Was at a PP meeting this morning full house on my drive don"t think it's been this wet since the early 90's maybe 50% fields planted but full of water holes best producing ground, rye that looked nice becoming pale yellow they say 70% planted wheat waterlogged and I'm sure a few of those planted fields are beans well beans don't like wet feet far from a crop in the bin.

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 23, 2019

Can't get in the damn fields but by all means knock the prices down some more complete idiots!!
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 23, 2019

Planted acres here in Missouri are not going to mean much.  Corn can’t produce in continuous saturated conditions, it’s doing good to just survive. My experience as a bottomland farmer is that most of this corn has already been seriously damaged.  It’s lost it’s energy and will be stunted back because it’s not healthy, kind of like a runt pig. You have to look for fields that don’t need replanting, problem will be finding out how to replant. Pitiful population counts, huge holes in the fields, corn that was planted 4 weeks ago that is only 3 to 4 inches tall, levees giving out on river bottoms, trucks hauling huge rock trying to save RR tracks from washing out.  We farmers live out here, these traders and market advisors you’re listening to I’m not sure where they are but this is very serious.  This is not just a local problem like most years, this is every corn producing state.  The other thing is the forecast, it shows no end to the rains.  We’re 2 days away from final plant date on corn for insurance.  Rain now predicted until June 1 and if it doesn’t rain after that it will be at least June 5 before we can run again.  At that time we are in survival mode to just get beans planted before the final plant date on them June 20.  

    We have no chemicals on 420 acres of corn but it looks like it has been sprayed as the weeds can’t even grow. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 23, 2019

It’s tough out there, but look at the positive side we have 0% planted. No corn no soybeans no nothing. Nothing spread nothing sprayed 0%. And yes prices and relief continues to be less everyday. I’ve been saying for 5 years we all just needed to not plant for a year to correct these markets and trader attitudes, however this is not the way we wanted to go about it.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 23, 2019

Looking like 1974.  Set new highs in corn.  That is why the government is in a panic and wants the crop planted no matter what. Corn should be up the limit today with rain and weather maps.  Still trying to figure out why pork gets money but beef doesn't. 

 

There will be stories "remember 2019" for decades to come.

 

The traders that are short corn are really in for an education.  Unfortunately I have too much education from the other side of the trade over the years.

 

Farmers need to find any diversion they can to get their minds off what they can not change weather/crop wise.  This too will pass.

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