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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, May 24, 2019

At 1:25pm:

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the rally in the farm markets is all about weather, today, and lots of talk of prevent plant going on.

 

“Let’s face it. There were maybe about 40 million acres of corn left to be planted as of last Monday and maybe we get to 60% planted by the end of the weekend. That means maybe 40 million left to go. Obviously, some of that will get planted, maybe most of it, but maybe not 10 million acres. That could take us down to nothing for ending stocks projections or close enough anyway to mean a major rally might be getting started. This is really something, and we need drier weather that is not really in the forecast,” Scoville says.

 

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, agrees that investors are digesting weather news.

 

“Grains are adding risk premium today with concerns of continued delays in planting with a wet long range forecast. In fact, price direction will be dominated by weather for the next few weeks,” Roose says.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At midsession, the July corn futures are 12¢ higher at $4.01 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 9 3/4¢ higher at $4.17 3/4.

July soybean futures are 8 3/4¢ higher at $8.30 1/2. November soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $8.56 1/4.

 

July wheat futures are 16 3/4¢ higher at $4.87.



 

July soymeal futures are $2.20 per short ton higher at $299.40.

 July soy oil futures are $0.32 cent higher at 27.10¢ per pound.

 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.18 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 106 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 9:28am:

 

In early trading, the July corn futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.97. Dec. corn futures are 7 1/4¢ higher at $4.15.

July soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $8.29 1/2. November soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ lower at $8.55 1/4.

 

July wheat futures are 9 1/2¢ higher at $4.79 1/4.



 

July soymeal futures are $1.80 per short ton higher at $299.00.

 July soy oil futures are $0.27 cent higher at 27.05¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.26 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 109 points higher.

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 113,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.


Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that those investors that miss a day of the news will miss a lot.

 

“Well, the government announced Thursday that there will be another round of aid paid out to farmers over the next few months. The kicker: Farmers have to plant a crop. Meanwhile, the wet weather is leaning toward an increase in potential soybeans. On the flip side, the weather remains very wet for the next two weeks,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

 

Kluis added, “With the wet weather we had across much of the US, the planting pace for U.S. corn next Tuesday afternoon will show around 62% planted. That would be well behind the five-year average pace.”

 

 

Mike

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5 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 24, 2019

So where would this 13% increase in planted acres come from? Alaska or Hawaii maybe Florida??

Why do we as farmers even listen to these market advisors, they are more clueless than the traders. My broker said back a month ago that rain makes grain. Lol.  He said that because we have excessive moisture then we would have a huge bean crop because there would be enough subsoil moisture to carry them through.  I’ve got city cousins smarter than this.  It’s laughable.

Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 24, 2019

Now Riverbottom....there in fact has been some good progress made this week in the South and Ohio. Friends in IA planted all night last night, so they got 5% of their beans in I suppose. Took a 2" rain this morning, but it is planted. :-)

Wether they got in 9 mil acres is maybe a stretch, but there was some...

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 24, 2019

If I was in charge as Issy is I'd move all those quotes from the market gurus to the humor section...

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 24, 2019

Of course the planting progress report depends on when the data was collected.

As mentioned last week there was plenty of seed that went in the ground around our area.

Quite a bit of corn and some beans as well - just in time to drown this week.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mpx&gage=mnkm5

 

 

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Advisor

IF

Near board paper corn gets to say $4.80 SOON, And Cash goes to $4.60 Real Soon, ......that should buy another 5 million acres of corn harvested for 2019.

 

Right now it appears that there will be say 70 million harvested.

 

Soooo,  IF that price would Rise SOON, harvested should go to perhaps 75 million acres.

 

say a 150 to 155 avg national yield puts this crop at somewhere between 10 and maybe to 12.5 Billion bu..

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