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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk May 26, 2021

At 8:45am:

Corn loses over 40¢ in two sessions.

 

Mike

 

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10 Replies
cborman11
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

This is ridiculous, damn *****!!!

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dwillinois
Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

China has their country back we are just the useless eaters living in it they have been trying to break the commodity boom since early May looks like they will get away with it, absolutely zero leadership in this country on trade creates the environment we are seeing, pump and dump is alive and well.

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clseller917
Frequent Visitor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

New to agro commodities here (previously mostly in oil) and am wondering if anyone can recommend good news sources for current states of affairs (preferably on the ground news vs. mass media reportage).  I'm not naive to the agro market in general and I've found moderate success finding specifics/details with sites like SF, agfax, and farmprogress, but it's been difficult gauging what's going on, particularly with this volatile of a market.  Or even some twitter recommendations would be great.  Any guidance is greatly appreciated!

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

A turn for the worse, less competition.

Poet bought out Flint Hills, first of June change over.

I have done business with both.

Flint Hills was 100% better/easier.

Flags at half mast here.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

clseller917

It is no different than oil.  The agriculture publishers long ago realized that subscriptions won't pay the way.  The farm population went urban decades back.  Technology replaced another % of workers.  80% of the commodities are produced by 5% of the farmers (in real terms instead of usda's vudu numbers(they pay every ground squirrel to be a producer)--

Advertising runs the show, writes the articles, ag has deteriorated to a nostalgia business in urban America.  We are slowly rendering ourselves like gas and oil did when they automated the field.

So your answer......... go to a grain broker.... there are several that work outside the local coops to make the dots connect for end users.  One I think quite a bit of is based in Kansas City and has elevators in extreme western ks... The Scoular folks are golden to work with unless you sell more than you produce (forward contracting is dumb, but what is preached by the so called experts... the voice of the brokers). Use a futures account.... far safer than forward contracting.  BUT---They aren't going to tell you what you want to hear.  Why would they?  

Over the years the contributors to SF Marketing have been pretty good.  We have small and larger producers, a couple of good advisors(in the business of sharing their marketing skills),  at one time we had representatives from most every region of production(so we were watching pacific nw, North Carolina, Ohio, New York(the window box district), as well as a solid monitor on the gulf coast exit for grains.  Our advertisers still think there are a lot of us out here who can't understand our marketing, but reality is most producers have good marketing plans that encompass local options.  Most want the blame for their mistakes.... don't intend to hire someone to blame.  The dumb farmer scenario is alive and well in publishing but pretty well gone among producers.  We been shaking out weakness for 60 years now, and will continue as the land of opportunity turns into the land of political bread lines.--------and there lies the clue---- in marketing.  Read a few weeks of comments....... anyone who finds their answers and blame in politics won't give good advice on marketing either.  The lust for power over our neighbors is all consuming in many troubled souls, we are no different than any other open forum.  But there are some real gems to be found here off and on.  We have engineers, accountants, logistics pro's, traders, bankers, asset managers, etc..... all imbedded in farming or at least have their hearts in it.  Ag commodities are not what they once were....  local to world wide, fewer producers, fewer merchants of grain, less true information available, usda doesn't use local data so they choose "projection" over facts--- so less involved than ever and like all divisions of government, tend to hire their work done.

(this typing was interrupted by a call from a usda person who wants to set a wheat plot in a field which will be cut within 30 days/should have been done at planting last fall-- purpose being yield projections-- which has already been broadcast as record levels.  This should be his third trip to the field but he had never been there nor set the plot.  The four trip process will be recorded as done yet  not done..... explanation....."Covid".  "Do I have the right field?"  "is that other field next to it wheat also?"  no they are oats.   yada yada yada). Point is usda is not a source of information.... if you're trading real supply and real demand.....   

If your wanting to trade the managed funds/usda casino then go to the usda web site..... they "manufacture" a lot of "Information".    mostly inconsequential but good for published articles.

 

 

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clseller917
Frequent Visitor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

Thanks @sw363535.  I appreciate the reply.

This makes sense and I kind of figured as much.  Between the few sites I mentioned, and as you alluded to, there is the usual mix of informed, uninformed, trolls, agendas, etc., but I've been doing a decent job of weeding through it all to try to find the useful information.  It seems the online presence for the industry is smaller than some others, so it's probably easier to easily identify who knows what they are talking about versus who is overly speculating or trolling.  It doesn't surprise me that mass media is either spinning an economic or political story, playing it safe by being behind the curve and regurgitating news, or is just completely uninformed.  This is the case in all commodities, equities, financial instruments, etc.  I agree that this forum has been a good source of information and, as you said, appears to have people "on the ground" so to speak.

I trade almost exclusively futures contracts and for agriculture intend to only trade futures.  Honestly, I became interested in it recently simply because I like to learn new things and it's been hot, so there is clearly an opportunity for speculators as well as the farmers.  The recent price action in corn (and wheat and soy to a lesser extent) has actually been very interesting for someone new to this market.  Seeing the market's reaction (or, arguably, overreaction) has been telling as far as what the mass market looks for news-wise and how the different pieces fit together.  I'm slowly working on that puzzle now - the intersection between crop yields, demand, weather, exports and international demand - hence the question for reputable news sources that can better report what's *actually* happening on the ground.  Throughout my trading career, there has always been a substantial disconnect between what's reported as opposed to what's actually happening, and that often makes the difference of being ahead of the curve or behind it.

 

Thanks again for the reply.  I'll continue to research and creep in the shadows on here.  I may try reaching out to one of those brokers... there may be a trip to Kansas in my future.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

Oh joy

Having to work through a broker just to sell a year's hard work.

Nothing but another middleman sucking nickels and dimes out of the system.

More paperwork, potential for another layer of fraud, deceit, and slow or non payment.

 

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clseller917
Frequent Visitor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

Apologies in advance if this is a stupid question, but if so much of the business has been automated and the industry shrank in size, why is there still a need for brokers at all?  

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26, 2021

Couple of things

Hobby.......... The feedlots are also becoming less "personally" run by a manager or owner.  Most are in more of a corporate structure and they are going to these brokers to source corn for them.   Its not new, we farm for one lady who was a manager for a couple of Cargill locations and had a personal relationship with a couple of big feeders.  She retired and went into business sourcing corn for a couple of feedlots for a fee per bushel rate.  She had the relationship and trust of the farmers with storage and the buying power for both at around 30 loads per day.  She was an exception that has become a speed dial marketing network 40 years later.

Absentee ownership of the feedlots and some aggressiveness by a few respected brokers who don't have facilities in a prime location, coupled with a lot more farm stored grain in that same area, created or encouraged by a history of scammy grain management by a couple of large commodity companies who do(ADM) or did(Cargill), monopolize storage in the same area.  The gloves are off when basis starts to run.... and the end users are no longer tied to "special" relationships.  They just need corn.

 

CLseller917,

There is some great marketing researchers and advisors.  Hobby is a good marketing mind but an even better risk manager.  He operates a river bottom and hilly farm area that could eat an average farmer alive... but he manages it with great vision.... His advice often has that form of "Quaker lie" to it because it is always slanted to his realities.  I use him as an example ...... That is where many of us are.... and our advice is tainted by our personal situations and locations.  Privacy keeps us from revealing all the why's  or circumstance, size or market locations that make the advice make sense.

Personally I am a big fan of Darin Newsom Analysis.  He is a chart analyst that I understand. But he is pricy for us average folk. We share a school and some local history(and a love of baseball and odd humor).

Time is a contributor who is involved in a good marketing analysis project in Indiana and Is kind enough to contribute here at "time"s.

My son likes some stuff he gets with a "PHD" label on it.

Through my grain storage "hobby" I get information from FCStone....... or maybe it is StoneX these days.  It is pretty good and a lot of the Coops that use their hedging services, get the same produced material and share it to their customers.  

 

That is about all I thought of today....... That little princess we farm for I mentioned in hobby part is in her 80's now and taught me the basics of marketing when I came back to the farm in the late 1960's.  And remains one of the best marketers I know.

 

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