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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk May 26

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 5 cents lower at $3.55 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.73 1/2 per bushel.
July soybean futures finished 1 3/4 cents lower at $9.22 1/2. Nov. soybean futures closed 2 1/4 cents lower at $9.04 3/4.

July wheat futures closed 21 3/4 cents lower at $4.93 1/2.

July soymeal futures closed $2.30 per short ton at $301.90. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $1.48 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 224 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.55 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.73 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $9.24. Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 1/4 cents lower at $9.05.

July wheat futures are trading 19 1/2 cents lower at $4.95.

July soymeal futures are trading unchanged at $304.20. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $1.50 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 190 points lower.

Bryan T. Doherty, Senior Market Advisor at Stewart-Peterson, says combined with a stronger U.S. dollar, the market pressure is coming from the trade buying wheat and selling corn.
“The news of wet weather is old news, as wheat didn’t find upward price pressure from follow-through buying. So, it looks like the trade is exiting longs and going short,” Doherty says.
Doherty adds, “Frost, wet weather, disease, are all reasons to suggest a downgrade in wheat ratings, yet rain is likely beneficial to the crop as a whole.”
Soybean prices are getting help from reversal of long wheat/short soybeans and from firmer palm oil prices, Doherty says.
Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says that the corn market is under pressure on ideas the crop is planted and that conditions are near greenhouse. 
“Maybe so, but there will be lost plantings in southwest Midwest and in the Delta/Southeast that we don’t seem to care about now,” Scoville says. 
Wheat prices are down on ample supplies worldwide and the super strong US Dollar, Scoville says. 
“Speculative traders are selling both corn and wheat. My farmer-customers are actually buying into the market a bit, especially if they are in affected areas,” Scoville says. 
The TX and OK rains have to be watched, Scoville says. They are too much and I am not as sanguine about the crops in affected areas as the market, I think wheat conditions can decline.  SRW looked good in the few fields I saw in a drive from Chicago to Cincinnati, Ohio, over the weekend. 
Mike

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At 9:40am:

 

Soybeans have turned up by a penny. Corn and wheat remain entrenched lower, Tuesday. This afternoon's USDA Crop Progress Report is expected to show corn 90% planted and soybeans 60% finished. What is your thought, on planting?

 

Thanks,

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $3.57 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 3 cents lower at $3.74 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading unchanged at $9.24. Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 cent lower at $9.05.

July wheat futures are trading 7 1/4 cents lower at $5.08.

July soymeal futures are trading $1.10 per short ton lower at $303.10. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.69 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:25am:

If you missed it Friday:

Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds dropping 19.5k net corn and over 37k net soybean contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (5/19), way more than daily trade estimates had been expecting; Chicago wheat added nearly 35k in the fund category with KC wheat up over 96k, with those gains also coming in well above trade esti-mates. Producers and merchants subsequently added over 11k corn and 37k
beans on the week, while dumping over 12k Chi and 7k KC wheat.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:45am:

 

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lowher, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 4-6 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.26 lower.
Dollar =Higher. 
Wall Street = Seen lower.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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14 Replies
Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

Lower again go figure
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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

beans print an $8 the decision to PP is a no brainer

 

and if I still had corn to go and had no inputs on, its a no brainer to walk

 

IMO the corn market is running drunk and blind in the wrong direction.  And it likely will for some time.  Its hell bent on crashing thru to a hard bottom.  And guess what, at this point.  Let it.  Maybe it will cut even more acres yet to be planted and also hammer SA as they will be making decisions for their next crop come fall.  The bean market is also running blind but not drunk yet.  Still going to be some decent acres, but what it will not care to look at is carryout this year is lower than advertised as demand keeps growing.  And slap a 40-41 nat avg and all of sudden that 500 mb carryout is 250 mb.  Thats when the drunk part comes in.

 

we are grinding slowly into the pain phase, and as mentioned a few weeks ago.  Its going to take pain to bottom this thing out.  Regardless of fundamentals.  Fundamentals will be the catalyst to catapulte us out, not stop us from going in.

 

Good news is, locally they are crying for old crop beans and corn in the face of what was supposed to be a record crop.  Given the recent weather developments locally, I am going to go out on a limb and guess basis will be quite good come next spring locally considering the amount of corn acres I have heard slipping to PP today.

 

Think its time to put up another bin

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

USDA Crop Progress Report:

 

Corn= 92% planted, as of Sunday.

Corn emergence at 74% vs. five-year average of 62%

 

Soybeans=61% vs. 32% five-year average.

 

The crops are high-flying.

 

How are things in your state or neighborhood?

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

Mike , you may want to check your facts about the beans planting progress... the other site has 

soybeans planted 61% vs 55% on average

32% emerged on bean vs 25% on average

 

 Maybe they are wrong, thank you

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

Prices don't usually come up when there is a lot of it in storage

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

Maybe we should all just sell everything and get it overwith.  Flood the market just like the ground, at least they couldn't say "the bin doors are shut" any more.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

still trying to plant.......... we are in the south side of the Ks and no where near 92% planted..

 

Usda is just betting on the average year

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

The experts say we already have flooded the market.

 

The growers are standing in line around here to give away their corn on price later "free DP" 

 

Have filled the local coop and caused the basis to fall. Cash corn ended with a $3.40 bid.today.

 

Nothing free about it for the growers, I'm not much liking getting sucked down with them.

 

Visited with a loan officer today and the take away for me is things aren't good out in the hinterlands for a fairly high % of farmers.

 

He was having a hard time believing how soon after good times it was happening.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 26

I have heard that to hobby, I am to simple minded to not understand how we as farmers can one day be flooding  the market and the next day the doors are shut.  Maybe I should just quit listening to the anylists and just go fishing.

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