Floor Talk May 28

[Hobbyfarmer]

I'm not as bullish as one might think from skimming my posts. There are too many swans that haven't molted yet to see what color their feathers will be.

The bullish side says the bins are mostly empty and the crop is in distress or not even planted in some of the heartland. They have this misconception that all is well when in fact it is not. Kind of like looking at a cancer patient after first diagnosis. Fine on the outside but... 

This takes conviction to ignor all the "noise"  I think $7 corn is the low side. $15 beans will prove to be a good buy too. I also think they will do everything in the world to create a room of smoke and mirrors to navigate our marketing vehicle through.

Mother Nature has this not funny way of averaging things out. So far it has been 2 cold, 2 wet,2 long in many areas. To average this out we may just get a, 2 dry, 2 hot, 2 long followed by an early frost chaser.

That adds up to two # 6's and a follow up bonus, any one # 6 can throw a monkey wrench in production and marketing.

[marketeye]

For reference purposes. Here's a chart that I made in 2012 for a Successful Farming magazine story. It shows the yield percentage drop, per planting dates, that stretch into June.

 

Mike

[Hobbyfarmer]

Benifit of the doubt argument here...

IF planted by the 7th of June (might be a stretch with the forecast I last saw)

this is corn

80% planted now but some in distress = less bu

10% not planted even late                    = less bu

10% planted late with 75% reduction   =   "     "

beans...

50% planted now = half a crop

50% planted late  = 2/3 of a half a crop

This Ass-u-me s it stops raining after this weekend.

We have $7ish corn and $15ish now and SA has a record crop and is shipping it. We are to believe there is a magic hat and rabbit somewhere that will...

A) fix the weather problems around the world. (not just here)

B) lower prices by almost a half?

I'm sorry but the bears need to keep selling because I am not buying. (yet)

[Faust100F]

You mind asking those you are listening to if they could send me some of what they are smoking?  I want to join them in fantasyland. 50% of the bean crop planted . . . if only Larry Moe and Curley believes that, this afternoon they will publish another comic book which will probably indicate corn and bean plantings in Iowa are almost complete, and that the recent and continuing rains will produce the largest crop in this state in its history of producing corn and soybeans.  

You have to understand that their job is to try and drive down prices for those who hold the most votes.  In their minds . . . rain makes grain . . . just like those commission houses calling farmers instructing them to lock in prices now because of the record crops that will be produced due to the rainfall.  I mean . . . the drouth resulted in a record crop, just think what a crop we will have with rainfall.  

Screw the yield loss due to prevent plant, replant, lack of nutrients, or soybeans damping off and being replanted if they were planted in this cold, wet weather.  I think we may be looking at a lot of PP in the insignificant crop producing area of Ioway (South Central Iowa) but I am not sure the PP or the decision not to replant will be as insignificant in other sectors of the state.

Farmers may just put this wet year on the back burner and file or wait to file Federal Crop Claims.  Since we are more than likely looking at an early freeze in Iowa this fall, which will create havoc with drydown of late or replanted corn.   Adios Amigo. John  

[Hobbyfarmer]

Faust; I believe you will have to at least graduate from that Mexican near beer stuff to at least Tequila to be able to see things the way the ex-spurts do.

[kraft-t]

Your humility overwhelms us! Lol

40 cents up on new crop beans today and the planters are parked in north Iowa. Pattern tiling is working great but not dry enough to plant. Nontiled is planted to corn but a river runs through it. Not actually a river but 8 inches of rain trying to run off.