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luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 28

In Brazil, credit and investments on technology in the field are still a big thing. While the overall economy is expected to have grown one percent (most optimistic figures) from January to March, the agricultural GDP is expected to grow by three percent. The revenue of machinery manufacturers grew, by comparison, over five percent in the period.

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pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 28----- help??

help me here-- "--Brazils's Safras is estimating that country's 2012-13 soybean production will end up rising by 22%."

 

is Safras biased ? 

 

is 22% a shocker ? or in line vs a poor yr ago crop.

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luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 28----- help??

Yes, last year was a poor year. Do you remember about the drought in Southern Brazil?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 28----- help??

luisviera,

 

What's the latest on Argentina's port strike. Can it happen again? And, what about the bean shipments in Brazil's ports? Are they getting cleared out?

 

Thanks for the info,

 

Mike

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luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 28----- help??

I wouldn't say cleared out, but they are being able to ship it with much smaller delays. There are still lines in Santos and Paranaguá, and some soybeans are being transported from Mato Grosso to the port of Rio Grande (600 miles further). So it brings costs.

 

In Argentina, 5,000 workers are on the strike. I don't know if they are going to end the strike soon. 

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 28

FWIW: I took a drive north and west out of Des Moines, Monday. I visited the Iowa Veterans Cemetary located along I-80. It's a very impressive memorial to those veterans. I was happy to see a lot of folks stopping by to pay tribute. If you ever have the chance to stop, while driving along I-80, west of Des Moines, it's worth it.

 

Meanwhile, I made it as west as Redfield, Iowa, by way of Highway 44, and witnessed a lot of ponding of the low areas of many cornfields. It's still overcast, today. So, not a lot of drying happening yet. The rainfall amounts being reported are substantial.

 

Separately, I just received a call from a marketing service. Farmers are urged to make incremental corn sales, for the next few days. And the message says that if you don't choose to sell corn, buy puts for the fall market. Translation: You better take advantage of this weather rally or you will have to settle for much lower prices at harvest.

 

So, anybody pricing some corn on this rally? I would be interested to hear what you think?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 28

Mike.......Sounds like the same song, different verse.   Smiley Wink

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 28

Maybe I am a little grouchy with all this rain, but, I have to ask, was that SCREW-U MARKETING SERVICE?

 

The odds are increasing that we have two back to back low corn production years.  New crop is THREE dollars less that the harvest price last year.  Old crop is still a buck and half under last years highs. 

 

They have to be the most glass half full people around.   Beans acres are going up(if, when they get planted), corn acres are going down, and beans are ralling more than corn....crazy world.

 

But, really, for the guys in the good producing areas this year....sell, sell, sell,  that will keep demand a coming.

 

The spin will be how all the demand is going away.    The spin will be quite entertaining.

 

Would someone tell the tree huggers that global warming has left this part of the midwest and they can stop seeding the clouds ASAP.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 28

"Separately, I just received a call from a marketing service. Farmers are urged to make incremental corn sales, for the next few days. And the message says that if you don't choose to sell corn, buy puts for the fall market. Translation: You better take advantage of this weather rally or you will have to settle for much lower prices at harvest".

 

I just love it when all these thousandaires tell us millionaires what we better do. Why don't they just keep quiet and put their money where their mouth is?

 

I'll have a ditch they can dig this fall to work off their margin calls.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 28

Hobbyfarmer,

 

Here's a bull for you. One analyst, in his note to customers made these remarks about the soybean market. "A new high for the year is feasible. L1 trend should be up to near end of June to mid July and the objective had been for low 1500s, was met price wise but not time wise, and so a new objective for 1570s to 1610s is now on the table. The 3yr cycle long term trend could be up into 2014 and years ending in 3 have always been strong up years, since 1930s. But a large summer spike could trigger such a top."

 

Mike

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